By Aaron Gleeman

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  Throughout the season, I will be looking at prospects around baseball each and every week in the insiderbaseball.com premium area, from standouts in rookie ball to polished studs who just made their major league debuts.

FREDDY GUZMAN – OF

Organization: San Diego Padres

Bats: Switch

DOB: 1/20/1981

I think the plan in San Diego was for Jay Payton, who they signed to a two-year deal this off-season, to man center field for this year and perhaps a couple months into next year, at which point he’d give way to Freddy Guzman.

Guzman held up his end of the bargain, doing well at both Double-A and Triple-A, but Payton was a disaster.  After hitting .302/.354/.512 with the Rockies last year (including .281/.330/.483 on the road), Payton slumped to .235/.298/.324 this season. 

The Padres, despite being in serious contention for a playoff spot with Payton’s awful play, decided they had seen enough, calling Guzman up from Triple-A Portland on August 18.  At 23 years old, and with just 579 at-bats above Single-A, Guzman is now the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter for a contender.

When I look at Guzman, I see an intriguing player, but one with some serious flaws  He hits for solid batting averages, draws plenty of walks and has extraordinary base running ability, but he has almost zero power and actually strikes out an awful lot, particularly for someone who isn’t hitting anything other than singles.

However, I asked Vinay Kumar, a Padres fan friend of mine and fellow writer at The Hardball Times, what he expected out of Guzman this year and he said, “All he has to do to be better than Payton is play solid defense in center field and get on base a little bit.”  Flaws or not, those are two things Guzman can do.

I think a good comp for the player Guzman can become is probably Juan Pierre of the Marlins.  Like Guzman, Pierre is a diminutive centerfielder/leadoff man who hits some singles, gets on base and is a burner on the base paths.  And, like Guzman, Pierre has almost no power to speak of.

However, if you look back at Pierre’s performances in the minors you see some real differences.  While they are and were very much similar players, Pierre’s stats were much better in some very key areas.

For one thing, while Guzman draws more walks than Pierre did, he also strikes out far more often than Pierre.  In 149 total games between Double-A and Triple-A, Guzman drew 72 walks and struck out 109 times, for a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.51-to-1.  Meanwhile, in 111 total games between Double-A and Triple-A, Pierre walked 33 times and struck out 26 times, for a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 0.79-to-1.

While Guzman certainly has very good plate discipline, I am of the belief that it is going to be a lot harder for him to draw walks in the majors because of his complete lack of power.  Because of that, his walk rate in the minors, although good, is not quite the asset it initially appears to be.  At the same time, I think the ability to control the strike zone, which is represented by strikeout-to-walk ratio, is more important.

In the majors, Pierre has maintained a similar strikeout-to-walk ratio, with 161 career strikeouts and 175 career walks, a 0.92-to-1 ratio.  Pierre’s ability to hit singles and use his speed is in no small way because of his ability to make contact and control the strike zone, whereas Guzman doesn’t have the same type of skills.

In addition to that, Pierre’s minor league batting averages were far better than Guzman’s.  In his three main stops in the minors, Pierre batted .352, .320 and .326.  Guzman hit .348 during his first taste of the pros, back in 2001, but has yet to hit even .300 at any level since then.

As for the lack of power and the incredible running ability, Guzman and Pierre are dead ringers for each other.  First, check out their Isolated Power (slugging percentage minus batting average) in the minors …

LEVEL                                      PIERRE            GUZMAN

Rookie/Single-A                            .063                   .084

Double-A/Triple-A                          .056                   .080

That’s really almost no power, particularly considering a lot of that “power” is a result of their great speed being able to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples.  To put those numbers into some context, consider that the lowest Isolated Power by any major league hitter who currently qualifies for the batting title comes from David Eckstein, at .054.  Pierre himself is at .081, which shows that he has developed his power a little since being in the minors.

I think Freddy Guzman will be an upgrade over Jay Payton this season and will likely be a very solid player for San Diego for a lot of years.  However, I don’t think he’ll walk as often as he did in the minors and I think his relative propensity to strikeout will hurt him as a slap-hitter.

Still, like Vinay suggested, if he can play some defense and get on base, he can definitely make himself useful.  For fantasy purposes, Guzman’s potential stolen base dominance is very interesting.  He stole 65 bases at an 87% clip in just 101 minor league games this season, after stealing 90 bases in 118 games last year.  He’s a definite 50-steal threat in the majors.

Gleeman long-term grade: B

JEFF KEPPINGER – 2B

Organization: New York Mets

Bats: Right

DOB: 4/21/1980

Originally Pittsburgh’s fourth-round pick in 2001, Jeff Keppinger came over to the Mets in last month’s three-way deal that also brought Kris Benson to the Big Apple.  Keppinger was essentially a toss-in in the deal, the least talked about of the six total players involved, but he has a chance to be a decent player.

After hitting .325 at Single-A last year, Keppinger was hitting .338 at Double-A this season when the Mets called him up.  The problem with Keppinger is that he seems to have traded much of his power for the ability hit for a higher batting average.

Back in 2002, Keppinger hit only .276, but smacked 10 homers in 478 at-bats.  Then last year he hit .325 and had just three homers in 342 at-bats.  This season is even worse, with only a single homer in 370 at-bats.  Take a look at how Keppinger’s Isolated Power has plummeted …

YEAR               IsoP

2002                 .128

2003                 .099

2004                 .078

Part of that comes from moving up to higher levels of competition, but you’d also expect him to add power as he matures.  As it stands now, Keppinger is basically a slap-hitter, albeit a good one.

With both Jose Reyes and Kaz Matsui hurting, Keppinger was called up to help out in the middle infield.  With those two around, his future in New York isn’t very bright, but he could certainly do a nice job as a utility man.

Overall, Keppinger just isn’t a very good prospect.  He’s not a great defender, he doesn’t draw any walks, he doesn’t have great speed, and he hasn’t hit for any power in two years.  The batting averages are very nice, but sometimes it takes more than that.

Gleeman long-term grade: C

JIMMY SERRANO – P

Organization: Kansas City Royals

Throws: Right

DOB: 5/9/1976

Jim Serrano is one of those unknown minor league veterans who could likely do just as well as any number of longtime major league pitchers, if only some team would give him a chance.  After seven years in the minors, the Royals have finally called Serrano up to the big leagues and have inserted him into their starting rotation.  Through his first three starts, Serrano is 0-1 with a 4.58 ERA in 17.2 innings.

The interesting thing about Serrano being in Kansas City’s rotation is that he was a reliever for nearly his entire minor league career.  Prior to this season, he had appeared in 275 games as a reliever and just one game as a starter.  This year, he spent the first part starting at Double-A Wichita, going 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA in 11 starts, before moving up to Triple-A Omaha and pitching out of the bullpen.

Serrano’s success as a starter at Double-A this year is encouraging, although I think the most likely scenario for him to succeed in is as a middle reliever/long reliever/spot starter type.  For his entire career, he has a 36-26 record and 3.05 ERA in 509.2 innings pitched.  He’s done a very nice job with his secondary numbers, striking out 589 batters (10.4/9) while walking just 216.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Serrano could give some team a couple years of league-average pitching for the major-league minimum.  On a team like the Royals, that would have a lot of value.

Gleeman long-term grade: C

JORGE de la ROSA – P

Organization: Milwaukee Brewers

Throws: Left

DOB: 4/5/1981    

Originally signed by the Boston Red Sox, Jorge de la Rosa was sent to the Diamondbacks in the Curt Schilling deal this off-season.  Then, about a week after that, he was traded again, this time to the Brewers, for Richie Sexson.

He’s got very good raw stuff, and de la Rosa’s strikeout rate has always been good.  In 2002, he struck out 110 batters in 139 innings between Single-A and Double-A (7.1/9), and then struck out 119 batters in 124 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year (8.6/9).  This year, de la Rosa has been limited to just 72 innings, but he has 77 strikeouts (9.6/9), along with 33 walks and a .250 batting average against.

The Brewers are no doubt extremely happy with the return they’ve already gotten from the Sexson deal, with Lyle Overbay entrenched at first base and Craig Counsell, Junior Spivey, Chris Capuano and Chad Moeller making contributions this year.   If de la Rosa can live up to his potential, the deal will look even better.

Gleeman long-term grade: B

CRAIG BRAZELL – 1B

Organization: New York Mets

Bats: Left

DOB: 5/10/1980

Craig Brazell has everything a major league first baseman needs except for one very crucial thing: Some semblance of plate discipline.  Prior to this year, Brazell hit for solid averages, and he’s always shown nice power.  And he strikes out, but not an incredible amount.

The one thing missing from his repertoire is the ability to work counts, control the strike zone and draw walks.  In 2002, Brazell drew a total of 14 walks in 135 games.  Last year, he drew 24 walks in 123 games.  This year, he had 18 walks in 111 games prior to being called up by the Mets.

A first baseman drawing 15-20 walks over the course of entire minor league seasons is just ridiculously bad.  You would think Brazell could coax a couple dozen walks simply out of having 20-homer power.  Yet he doesn’t, and that is what will keep him from being a good major league hitter.

He might hit .275, he might smack 20 homers and 30 doubles, and he might play decent defense.  But if you’re drawing a walk every dozen games, you’re just making far too many outs to play first base at the major league level.

Gleeman long-term grade: C

Volume 19 FREDDY GUZMAN – OF  JEFF KEPPINGER – 2B JIMMY SERRANO – P JORGE de la ROSA – P CRAIG BRAZELL – 1B