By Aaron Gleeman
Hello and welcome to
Prospect Central. Throughout the season, I will be looking at prospects
around baseball each and every week in the insiderbaseball.com
premium area, from standouts in rookie ball to
polished studs who just made their major league debuts.
FREDDY GUZMAN
– OF
Organization: San Diego Padres
Bats: Switch
DOB:
1/20/1981
|
YEAR |
LVL |
AB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
HR |
2B |
3B |
BB |
SO |
SB |
|
2002 |
A |
190 |
.279 |
.341 |
.368 |
0 |
7 |
5 |
18 |
37 |
39 |
|
|
A |
80 |
.225 |
.293 |
.275 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
15 |
16 |
|
|
A |
81 |
.259 |
.326 |
.333 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
8 |
12 |
14 |
|
2003 |
A |
281 |
.285 |
.375 |
.370 |
2 |
12 |
3 |
40 |
60 |
49 |
|
|
AA |
177 |
.271 |
.368 |
.339 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
26 |
34 |
38 |
|
2004 |
AA |
138 |
.283 |
.370 |
.359 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
16 |
28 |
17 |
|
|
AAA |
264 |
.292 |
.365 |
.379 |
1 |
12 |
4 |
30 |
46 |
48 |
I think the plan in San
Diego was for Jay Payton, who they signed to a two-year deal this
off-season, to man center field for this year and perhaps a couple months
into next year, at which point he’d give way to Freddy Guzman.
Guzman held up his end of
the bargain, doing well at both Double-A and Triple-A, but Payton was a
disaster. After hitting .302/.354/.512 with the
Rockies last year (including .281/.330/.483 on the road), Payton
slumped to .235/.298/.324 this season.
The Padres, despite being
in serious contention for a playoff spot with Payton’s awful play, decided
they had seen enough, calling Guzman up from Triple-A Portland on August
18. At 23 years old, and with just 579 at-bats above Single-A, Guzman is
now the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter for a contender.
When I look at Guzman, I
see an intriguing player, but one with some serious flaws He hits for
solid batting averages, draws plenty of walks and has extraordinary base
running ability, but he has almost zero power and actually strikes out an
awful lot, particularly for someone who isn’t hitting anything other than
singles.
However, I asked Vinay
Kumar, a Padres fan friend of mine and fellow writer at The Hardball
Times, what he expected out of Guzman this year and he said, “All he has
to do to be better than Payton is play solid defense in center field and
get on base a little bit.” Flaws or not, those are two things Guzman can
do.
I think a good comp for
the player Guzman can become is probably Juan Pierre of the Marlins. Like
Guzman, Pierre is a diminutive centerfielder/leadoff man who hits some
singles, gets on base and is a burner on the base paths. And, like
Guzman, Pierre has almost no power to speak of.
However, if you look back
at Pierre’s
performances in the minors you see some real differences. While they are
and were very much similar players, Pierre’s stats were much better in
some very key areas.
For one thing, while
Guzman draws more walks than Pierre did, he also strikes out far more
often than Pierre.
In 149 total games between Double-A and Triple-A, Guzman drew 72 walks and
struck out 109 times, for a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.51-to-1.
Meanwhile, in 111 total games between Double-A and Triple-A, Pierre walked
33 times and struck out 26 times, for a strikeout-to-walk ratio of
0.79-to-1.
While Guzman certainly
has very good plate discipline, I am of the belief that it is going to be
a lot harder for him to draw walks in the majors because of his complete
lack of power. Because of that, his walk rate in the minors, although
good, is not quite the asset it initially appears to be. At the same
time, I think the ability to control the strike zone, which is represented
by strikeout-to-walk ratio, is more important.
In the majors,
Pierre has maintained a similar strikeout-to-walk ratio, with 161
career strikeouts and 175 career walks, a 0.92-to-1 ratio.
Pierre’s ability to hit
singles and use his speed is in no small way because of his ability to
make contact and control the strike zone, whereas Guzman doesn’t have the
same type of skills.
In addition to that,
Pierre’s minor league batting averages were far better than
Guzman’s. In his three main stops in the minors,
Pierre batted .352, .320 and .326. Guzman hit .348 during his
first taste of the pros, back in 2001, but has yet to hit even .300 at any
level since then.
As for the lack of power
and the incredible running ability, Guzman and Pierre are dead ringers for
each other. First, check out their Isolated Power (slugging percentage
minus batting average) in the minors …
LEVEL PIERRE GUZMAN
Rookie/Single-A .063 .084
Double-A/Triple-A .056 .080
That’s really almost no
power, particularly considering a lot of that “power” is a result of their
great speed being able to turn singles into doubles and doubles into
triples. To put those numbers into some context, consider that the lowest
Isolated Power by any major league hitter who currently qualifies for the
batting title comes from David Eckstein, at .054. Pierre himself is at
.081, which shows that he has developed his power a little since being in
the minors.
I think Freddy Guzman
will be an upgrade over Jay Payton this season and will likely be a very
solid player for
San Diego
for a lot of years. However, I don’t think he’ll walk as often as he did
in the minors and I think his relative propensity to strikeout will hurt
him as a slap-hitter.
Still, like Vinay
suggested, if he can play some defense and get on base, he can definitely
make himself useful. For fantasy purposes, Guzman’s potential stolen base
dominance is very interesting. He stole 65 bases at an 87% clip in just
101 minor league games this season, after stealing 90 bases in 118 games
last year. He’s a definite 50-steal threat in the majors.
Gleeman long-term grade:
B
JEFF KEPPINGER
– 2B
Organization: New York Mets
Bats: Right
DOB: 4/21/1980
|
YEAR |
LVL |
AB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
HR |
2B |
3B |
BB |
SO |
SB |
|
2002 |
A |
478 |
.276 |
.344 |
.404 |
10 |
23 |
4 |
47 |
33 |
6 |
|
2003 |
A |
342 |
.325 |
.365 |
.424 |
3 |
21 |
2 |
23 |
28 |
3 |
|
2004 |
AA |
370 |
.338 |
.389 |
.416 |
1 |
20 |
3 |
33 |
19 |
12 |
Originally Pittsburgh’s
fourth-round pick in 2001, Jeff Keppinger came over to the Mets in last
month’s three-way deal that also brought Kris Benson to the Big Apple.
Keppinger was essentially a toss-in in the deal, the least talked about of
the six total players involved, but he has a chance to be a decent player.
After hitting .325 at
Single-A last year, Keppinger was hitting .338 at Double-A this season
when the Mets called him up. The problem with Keppinger is that he seems
to have traded much of his power for the ability hit for a higher batting
average.
Back in 2002, Keppinger
hit only .276, but smacked 10 homers in 478 at-bats. Then last year he
hit .325 and had just three homers in 342 at-bats. This season is even
worse, with only a single homer in 370 at-bats. Take a look at how
Keppinger’s Isolated Power has plummeted …
YEAR IsoP
2002 .128
2003 .099
2004 .078
Part of that comes from
moving up to higher levels of competition, but you’d also expect him to
add power as he matures. As it stands now, Keppinger is basically a
slap-hitter, albeit a good one.
With both Jose Reyes and
Kaz Matsui hurting, Keppinger was called up to help out in the middle
infield. With those two around, his future in
New York
isn’t very bright, but he could certainly do a nice job as a utility man.
Overall, Keppinger just
isn’t a very good prospect. He’s not a great defender, he doesn’t draw
any walks, he doesn’t have great speed, and he hasn’t hit for any power in
two years. The batting averages are very nice, but sometimes it takes
more than that.
Gleeman long-term grade:
C
JIMMY SERRANO
– P
Organization: Kansas City Royals
Throws: Right
DOB:
5/9/1976
|
YEAR |
LVL |
IP |
ERA |
SO |
BB |
H |
HR |
|
2002 |
AAA |
74 |
4.01 |
76 |
31 |
88 |
3 |
|
2003 |
AAA |
77 |
2.69 |
75 |
30 |
63 |
4 |
|
2004 |
AA |
64 |
1.96 |
74 |
18 |
42 |
6 |
|
|
AAA |
32 |
5.01 |
41 |
21 |
32 |
4 |
Jim Serrano is one of
those unknown minor league veterans who could likely do just as well as
any number of longtime major league pitchers, if only some team would give
him a chance. After seven years in the minors, the Royals have finally
called Serrano up to the big leagues and have inserted him into their
starting rotation. Through his first three starts, Serrano is 0-1 with a
4.58 ERA in 17.2 innings.
The interesting thing
about Serrano being in Kansas City’s rotation is that he was a reliever
for nearly his entire minor league career. Prior to this season, he had
appeared in 275 games as a reliever and just one game as a starter. This
year, he spent the first part starting at Double-A Wichita, going 3-1 with
a 1.96 ERA in 11 starts, before moving up to Triple-A Omaha and pitching
out of the bullpen.
Serrano’s success as a
starter at Double-A this year is encouraging, although I think the most
likely scenario for him to succeed in is as a middle reliever/long
reliever/spot starter type. For his entire career, he has a 36-26 record
and 3.05 ERA in 509.2 innings pitched. He’s done a very nice job with his
secondary numbers, striking out 589 batters (10.4/9) while walking just
216.
There’s no doubt in my
mind that Serrano could give some team a couple years of league-average
pitching for the major-league minimum. On a team like the Royals, that
would have a lot of value.
Gleeman long-term grade:
C
JORGE de la
ROSA
– P
Organization: Milwaukee
Brewers
Throws: Left
DOB:
4/5/1981
|
YEAR |
LVL |
IP |
ERA |
SO |
BB |
H |
HR |
|
2002 |
A |
121 |
3.65 |
95 |
52 |
105 |
10 |
|
|
AA |
18 |
5.50 |
15 |
9 |
17 |
0 |
|
2003 |
AA |
100 |
2.80 |
102 |
36 |
87 |
6 |
|
|
AAA |
24 |
3.75 |
17 |
12 |
27 |
0 |
|
2004 |
AAA |
72 |
4.90 |
77 |
33 |
66 |
9 |
Originally signed by the
Boston Red Sox, Jorge de la Rosa was sent to the Diamondbacks in the Curt
Schilling deal this off-season. Then, about a week after that, he was
traded again, this time to the Brewers, for Richie Sexson.
He’s got very good raw
stuff, and de la Rosa’s strikeout rate has always been good. In 2002, he
struck out 110 batters in 139 innings between Single-A and Double-A
(7.1/9), and then struck out 119 batters in 124 innings between Double-A
and Triple-A last year (8.6/9). This year, de la Rosa has been limited to
just 72 innings, but he has 77 strikeouts (9.6/9), along with 33 walks and
a .250 batting average against.
The Brewers are no doubt
extremely happy with the return they’ve already gotten from the Sexson
deal, with Lyle
Overbay
entrenched at first base and Craig Counsell, Junior Spivey, Chris Capuano
and Chad Moeller making contributions this year. If de la Rosa can live
up to his potential, the deal will look even better.
Gleeman long-term grade:
B
CRAIG BRAZELL
– 1B
Organization: New York Mets
Bats: Left
DOB:
5/10/1980
|
YEAR |
LVL |
AB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
HR |
2B |
3B |
BB |
SO |
SB |
|
2002 |
A |
402 |
.266 |
.292 |
.463 |
16 |
25 |
3 |
13 |
78 |
2 |
|
|
AA |
130 |
.308 |
.343 |
.508 |
6 |
8 |
0 |
1 |
28 |
0 |
|
2003 |
AA |
432 |
.292 |
.331 |
.472 |
17 |
23 |
2 |
23 |
97 |
2 |
|
|
AAA |
46 |
.261 |
.292 |
.326 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
|