Prospect Central

10 top-notch position-player prospects to watch in 2008

This week we will looking at 10 of the players who will climb near the top of many 2008 prospect lists. (In no particular order…)

As an (hopefully) interesting aside, I will also included some clips … er … excerpts from previous Prospect Central volumes to see where we thought these players should be earlier and compare that to what they have done since.

See? It is referencing … It’s not a cheesy clips episode…

Clay Buchholz – SP – Red Sox

In Volume 8 of Prospect Central (PC) I said:

“Jacoby Ellsbury gets most of the ink in the Red Sox farm system but perhaps the bigger impact prospect is Clay Buchholz. A supplemental first round pick for the Sox in 2005, Clay has dominated three levels in his first two pro seasons… Clay represents true Ace potential even though he is still a bit underrated in many circles. He will however be near the top of many top prospect lists this time next year I suspect, including ours here at Prospect Central.”

Later, on June 26^th after seeing him pitch for Portland against Manchester I wrote:

“Clay has been selected to play in the 2007 Futures Game and the Red Sox sandwich pick in 2005, the 42^nd player taken overall, seems to be straining at the leash developmentally. I am guessing the only reason he is not in AAA now is that the Red Sox feel no urge to rush the young man. The Red Sox as an organization however feel they will not bring a player to the majors unless they see him face some adversity and gauge how they handle it. Clay is probably not going to be challenged too much in AA, so their hand may be forced.

As telling as anything last night, the nearly 7,000 in attendance gave the visiting Buchholz a prolonged standing ovation as he left the mound, no doubt with visions of him in Fenway dancing in their heads.  As I speculated in week #8 it seems certain that Clay’s days of being underrated as a prospect are near an end.”

Well we all know what happened after that. Boston’s hand was forced, as Clay was a man among boys in AA (7-2, 1.77, 0.89). He was sent to AAA where he did find a little challenge before being called up in mid-August for a spot start against the Angels where he posted a QS, if only barely.

The feeling in the organization was that he let his focus slip a little bit after coming back from the majors but over 8 starts in AAA he went 1-3 on a bad team with a 3.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He gave up just 32 hits in 38.2 IP (.227 OBA) but walked 13 (3.03). To an extent he fell victim to am unfavorable .333 BHIP% and a very unfavorable 64.1% strand percentage, but he did learn that he couldn’t just naturally dominate hitters. He needed to bring everything, his stuff, his focus, and his head to the mound to be the elite pitcher he was capable of being.

Then came the injury to Tim Wakefield and on less than 48 hours notice, Clay went out and no-hit the Orioles on September 1^st. One thing the Red Sox wanted Clay to learn in AAA was how to work batters over the course of a game, selecting pitches in the first meeting with a batter, with an eye towards his second and third AB in the game. Jason Varitek needs to be given a lot of credit for the no-hitter as he grabbed Clay by the hand in a pitch selection sense and asked a lot of him. Clay just followed Jason and threw whatever Jason wanted in whatever count Jason wanted it, and he threw everything with command. That night the Red Sox battery gave new meaning to the term “baffling hitters”. 

I honestly cannot decide which is better, his change or his hellacious 12-6 curve. However, he wraps those around a fastball with life. His stuff is incredible, and he has raised his pitching IQ tremendously this year.

He is The Real Deal.

Long Term Fantasy Grade: I gave him an “A” in Volume 8. He is now an A+    

Justin Upton – OF – D-Backs

I profiled Justin Upton way back in Volume 1 of PC as part of a piece on great young prospects in the low minors.  Of that group, Jose Tabata and Fernando Martinez had good years but were injured, Colby Rasmus did not come too far level-wise, but he flashed his considerable talent, and two guys, Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin made it to the show.

Here is what I wrote about Upton:

“Even by professional sports standards Justin is an exceptional athlete and even that works against him to a degree. Sometimes gifted players lean too heavily on their athleticism and as a result they back burner their skill development … His 6-1, 195lb frame already looks MLB-ready as do his physical skills. What is going to be fun is watching the bearing of his physical skills cross the bearing of his baseball skills. When that happens there will be a mushroom cloud.”

After a fast start in high-A (.341, 5 HRs, 9 SBs, a .540 SLG% and .967 OPS), Justin barely slowed down when he hit AA. He batted .309, holding his K rate below 20% (19.7%) with a +10% BB rate (12.5%) and oh ya, he slugged .556 with a 34 XBH in 259 ABs (right around a pace of 62 XBH and 25 HRs over 500 ABs).

His adult baseball incisors are clearly coming in as his BB rate and K rate held steady, at healthy levels, despite a big level jump.  In his last full month in AA, July, he hit 305, drawing 19 walks (23.1%) in 82 ABs with just 13 Ks (15.8%) and a .585 SLG%.

He is experiencing growing pains in the majors right now (29.5% K rate, .221 AVG, .275 OBP in 95 ABS) but man this kid is going to be fun to watch.

Long Term Fantasy Grade: In Week #1 I gave Justin an “A+”. I do not think he will steal a ton of bases, nor do I think he quite has 40-HR power (although I really hate to put a ceiling on this just-turned-20 year old), but Justin is simply one of the best prospects on the board. A+ 

Ian Kennedy – SP – Yankees

Last week I profiled the Yankees other …well, after Phillip Hughes I guess I have to say third … great pitching prospect, Ian Kennedy:

“Joba Chamberlain has gotten a lot of the Yankees prospect ink this season but Kennedy may have actually had the better year.

Ian made his MLB debut yesterday limiting the Rays to 1 run in 7 IP on 5 hits, 2 walks and 6 K. Ian climbed three levels in 2007 finishing in AAA where he was 1-1, 2.08 in 6 starts, with a 1.04 WHIP and .204 OBA. That line was helped by a .265 BHIP% and a 85.6% strand percentage.

Ian is not overpowering, throwing in the 88-92 range and he has a fastball with natural sink, which helps him keep the ball in the ballpark (0.52 HR/9 in AAA). But location is his game, not that he has tremendous control (2.8 BB/9 in AAA)

It easier to like pitchers who throw hard but Kennedy is making a living out of defying that bias. Still, he has come a long way in short time and there plenty of indicators (favorable strand% and BHIP%, high walk rate) that give you pause.

If he can maintain his power K rate (8.8 in AAA) at the MLB level despite the lack of true power stuff, and if he can maintain his sterling HR rate in the majors he can continue to be very effective. He did just that Saturday, however, he has to show me at least, he can do it long-term.”

Moneyball taught us all about “biases” and how they color what we think of a player. I have a bias against soft tossing (when a pitcher throws multiple fastballs in the 80’s during an outing and tops out around 92 he is a “soft tosser” for the purposes of this discussion) pitchers, especially when their 6-0 listed height is questionable, and they are right-handed. As a result, I am going to be a little stubborn about Ian until he kicks it out of me.

Ian has had a terrific year in 2007, rising from high-A to the majors and despite his lack of a dominant fastball he has maintained high K rates and OBAs of .204 or better over three levels. I have to look at his BHIP% (.259, .238, and .265 at A+, AA, and AAA respectively) and his strand % (89.5%, 74.1%, 85.6%) and wonder what his line will be like if he can’t maintain any of these indicators at the MLB level.

Well, we only have 12 IP to work with, but his MLB BHIP% is level at .299, which has brought his OBA, in starts against the free-swinging Rays and the Royals, to a mediocre .262. His ERA sits at 2.25 despite a WHIP (1.42) that is just better than average. That is due to a still-favorable 76.9% strand %. Level that off at 70% and we are looking at a 3.82 ERA. That’s still good of course, but not “elite” good.

His K rate has dropped to 6.0 in the majors and his BB rate has spiked at 3.7/9.

Long Term Fantasy Grade: I gave him a “B-“ last week and I stand my ground 7 days later. We can dissect his two starts, but it is useless given the sample size and his inexperience. Moreover, at this level maybe the coaches can get more GBOs out of the sink on his fastball, which will be key in terms of his potential in the majors. The bottom line is that I think he has overachieved considering the level of his stuff. I would not get too enamored.  

Joba Chamberlain - SP – Yankees

In Volume 9 of PC this year, I said:

“Chamberlain has not been wowed by high-A so far fanning over 10/9 while controlling his walks and winning the contact battles with opposing pitchers. Joba is very close to being a MLB-usable product and he should see AA well before the year is done. He has the stuff and the makeup to succeed. If he can remain healthy, he could join the line of viable young Yankees starters parading to the Bronx as early as next spring.”

The people who have been wowed this year are Joba’s opposing hitters and every armchair fantasy prospector in the country.

Joba did end up in AA where he went 4-2, 3.35, 1.17 in 40.1 IP (7 starts, 8 apps). Opponents hit .220 off him and that was with an unfavorable .370 BHIP%. In AA he fanned 14.7/9 and the Yankees, desperate for bullpen help decided to see what he could do at AAA.

He made 3 apps with 1 start at that level not allowing a run over 8 IP while giving up 5 hits and 1 walks against 18 strikeouts … 18 … in 8 IP at AAA. That was all the Yankees needed to see before bringing him up.

In the majors Chamberlain has yet to give up a run in 14.1 IP, striking out 18 (11.3 K rate) with just 4 walks (2.5). He is holding opponents to a 0.77 WHIP and .148 OBA (with the help of a .238 BHIP%). The hitters in the majors will start to gain some traction on him as they see him more, but clearly, he has the ability to be very effective at this level.

Long Term Fantasy Grade: In Volume 9 I gave Joba a “B”. He has done plenty of extra credit work to up that grade. His health prospects are still an issue, as Joe Torre’s “Joba Rules” suggest. That will keep him down to a mere “A” as his final grade, but with a bullet.

Jay Bruce – OF – Reds

In Volume 9 of PC this year, I said:

“Big, strong and accomplished as a hitter, Jay uses the entire field, with power. His swing is short and sweet. He can wait an extra beat to identify a pitch and still hit it with impressive power. That will only be augmented when his 6-2 frame fills out with 15-20 more pounds of maturity … This year he is starting at A+ and he is handling himself just as well there. It is unlikely the Reds will make him spend the year at this level. Expect him in AA by the ASB and keep close tabs on this developing All-Star.”

Jay did make it to AA and lasted there all of 66 ABs. He slugged .652, with a 1.057 OPS despite a 30.3% K rate. Keep in mind his BB rate was 10.8% It matters not because the Reds shuffled him to AAA and he barely missed a beat hitting .305 in 187 ABs with 11 HRs, good for a .567 SLG%. His K rate came back to 25.7%, which holds a hair higher than his pro career rate. Not bad for a 20 year old in AAA but everyone wants to see that K rate come down, none more than Bruce himself who is intense about improving his game.

It may be a lot to expect that Jay would force himself into the mix in 2008, but then again it may not. Expect Jay to start at AAA and to start pounding on the MLB door by Memorial Day Weekend

Long-Term Fantasy Grade: I graded him at “A” earlier this year but I have seen enough … Give him an A+  

Evan Longoria – 3B – Rays

In Volume 6 of PC this year I wrote:

“Longoria has great bat speed and quick hands at the plate. He project to be a .300/30/100+ hitter in the majors and he is coming fast. Akinori Iwamura is in front of him at third with the big club and the Rays will use the DH to try to get some ABs for Elijah Dukes. For now it seems, Evan is blocked.

The thing is that he is too good a hitter to stay that way for long. Evan will see some time with the big club in September at a minimum, but he is capable of an immediate impact should injuries or other problems create an opportunity for him sooner. “

The Rays have been patient with Evan this summer, but that has been made possible by a slow start in AAA since being promoted on August 1.

Evan led the Southern League in HR (21) and Rbi (76) when he was promoted and he hit .307 in AA with a .528 SLG% in 117 AB. He had a sluggers K rate of 21.3% which was up from his 17.3% in high A in 2006, but it was manageable, especially considering his healthy 11.8% BB rate.

Once promoted to AAA those numbers got a bit out of hand with Evan striking out 27.9% of the time and walking 17.5%.  As a result he hit just .269 in 104 ABs despite a favorable .329 BHIP%. Losing nearly 1 in 3 ABs to a K will do a number on your average, no matter how well you hit the ball. With 5 HRs and 8 doubles he also posted a respectable .490 SLG% in his first 100 AAA ABs so we will chalk many of his issues up to needing time to adjust.

That may have cost him the ABs in the majors I predicted for this month, but we’ll see. The Rays will leave him with the Bulls for the playoffs and then go from there.  Evan remains oen of the top hitting prospects around and he seems destine for multiple All-Star appearances once he takes root here. That could be sometime in 2008

Long Term Fantasy Grade: I stick with my A+ from Volume 6.

Travis Snider – OF – Blue Jays

Even my 8-year-old son is, as Pete Carroll would say, jacked and pumped to see this still 19-year-old in Manchester with the AAA Fisher Cats next year.  Here is what I wrote in Volume 17 of PC:

“By all accounts, Travis is a dirt dawg with outstanding make up. Think of him as the result of what we learned in the Trot Nixon experiment … Travis is a free swinger but he is not a hacker. He is not overwhelmed by breaking stuff and stays back, exploding on the ball with enticing power from a high school player … Travis looks for all the world like an impact fantasy player, a corner outfielder who will settle into the middle of the order once he arrives. I want to see a year at AA before I project whether he has the ability to hit in a 3 or 4 spot in the majors but I do not see why not at this point.”

First, I will tell you his line in A-Ball this year. He hit .313 in 457 ABs with 16 HRs and slugged .525. His zone command was a little iffy at a 28.2% K rate and a 9.7% walk rate.

You look at the numbers and you are probably not terribly impressed. That is understandable.

But when I tell you that the league average offensive numbers for the Midwest League this year were a .225 batting average and a .372 SLG% you start to get a little more interested, right? How about when I tell you that Travis was the only (qualifying) player in the league to slug over .500? At that point, you understand how impressive he was in a league where hitters do not often look impressive. Travis also drove in 93 runs and added 35 doubles to his 16 HRs … a sign of things to come.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – I gave Travis an “A-” back in Volume 17. He is young and there is a long way to go, so I do not want to go too nuts yet.  He still has to build a relationship with the strike zone and handle a jump to AA at a very young age. My guess is that by this time next year we will have seen this (at that time) 20-year-old slugger start to pick apart AA pitching. At that point, his grade will be moving towards an A+   

Jacoby Ellsbury – OF – Red Sox

In Volume 5 of PC this season I wrote:

“Ellsbury is ready to take on AAA where he can recalibrate his plate command and contact skills. He needs pitching that will challenge him to the point where he learns the value of a walk. The Sox are going well right now, they are healthy, and they can afford to be patient with their top prospect.  And they will be … Inevitable comparisons to Johnny Damon will arise with Jacoby, and he is much better defensively than Damon, with a bit more speed, but less power. He also shows less of an ability, so far, to draw a walk. Still, Jacoby projects as the OBP machine the Red Sox love. I would sooner make the comparison to the Sox current centerfielder. In Ellsbury the Sox seem to be breeding the type of player they hoped Coco Crisp would be.”

The Red Sox were patient with Ellsbury while they were healthy, until September 1 rolled around to see Manny and Bobby Kielty injured and J.D. Drew issuing an amber alert for his ability to hit. Jacoby came back to the majors with a bang, two of them in fact. He has hit two homers since his recall which matches his total for the 436 ABs he had in AA and AAA this year. It gets you wondering what else we do not know about this kid.

One thing you may not have know is that when the Red Sox send him back to Pawtucket (where the calamari roam free) after his first taste of the majors, the Paw Sox started playing him more in left and right field, to make him more useful to the big club. Hmmm … indeed.

Jacoby did not necessarily draw as many more walks in AAA as we had hoped. His BB rate at 8.1% was only insignificantly better than his AA rate of 7.6%. Still he fanned just 12.9% of the time, up 3% from his 9.6% in AA. In 46 MLB ABs this year, he has fanned just 4.3% of the time (twice) and walked 8.0% of the time. In addition, he has hit .391 and slugged .652 with a .431 OBP in that span.

Beyond that though, in both of his tours with the big club, Jacoby has brought a certain life to the lineup. It is intangible and vague, and cannot be quantified into a stat, but the kid brings something to the table every time he plays.

For his part, Ellsbury is ready for the majors. The Red Sox however still have their outfield booked through 2008 with Manny, Coco, and Drew. In addition, the DH slot is pretty clogged as well with David Ortiz. I do not yet see a fit but there is plenty of time for the Sox to create one before Opening Day.

Long Term Fantasy Grade; I gave Ellsbury a B+ back in Volume 5 due to his lack of power. He has just flashed us that he may have more than we have previously seen, and additionally I have another summer of confidence that Ellsbury’s skills are transferable to the majors. I up him to an A-.

Clayton Kershaw  - SP – Dodgers

In Volume 13 of PC this year I wrote:

“Kershaw is already built to throw a baseball and as his body matures, he may be able to upgrade his mid-90s heat. He will tip 96 on occasion but Clay can pump out 93 mph fastballs with impressive consistency. He also has a plus curve that seems to take forever to get there and has good downward bite. He can show over 20 mph in separation between his fastball and curve and he is proficient with a change. That pitch is still a work in progress but the Dodgers staff knows that this kid takes coaching and feels confident of its development … Clay is scarily reminiscent of Orel Hershiser in stuff and the dichotomy between his laid back personality and bull dog (there ..I said it! …) approach in the mound. He is a ways away but Clay has #1 starter written all over him.”

After handling A with aplomb this year (7-5, 2.77, 1.25, .208 OBA, 12.3 K/9), Clayton hit AA at 19 years old and handled himself well for 24.2 IP. He went 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA while striking out 10.5/9. Opponents hit just .196 off him but Clayton had a huge tail wind in that regard in his .243 BHIP%. Most of the blood on this line came in his first two outings at AA and he settled down quite a bit after that. Overall, he finished with a 12.0/9 K rate over two levels, third in the entire minors. Admittedly, his numbers were mostly forged in the pitching-friendly Midwest League, but they do tell a story.

He also walked 6.2/9 (17) in that 24.2 AA IP after walking 4.6/9 in 97.1 A IP. That is a sharp departure from his 1.2 BB rate in rookie ball in 2006 and it is where his age vs. level shows up.

You have to keep his age in context. A 19-year-old kid handling AA hitters is a beautiful thing. 

Long Term Fantasy Grade: I gave him an “A” back in Volume 13 and I refuse to up that grade until he turns 20. There is along way to go, but this kid looks like an elite pitcher in the making.

Jed Lowrie – SS – Red Sox

In Volume 14 of PC this year I wrote:

“My pilgrimages to see Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz perform for the AA Portland Sea Dogs has afforded me the opportunity to watch Stanford product Jed Lowrie emerge as a viable MLB prospect.

Jed looks like the shortstop package that Theo Epstein thought he was getting with Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. Jed is a very disciplined hitter who has maintained fairly level K:BB ratio throughout his college and pro career. He takes walks, limits his strikeouts and he can hit for power.

But what Theo will (does?) love about him is that he doesn’t give away at bats. He works counts, makes pitchers work, and makes quality outs.

If Jed can port his terrific plate discipline up the ladder to the show, and maintain his ability to play a quality shortstop and find some way to contribute to the cause every night, he will be a valuable MLB asset for the Red Sox (and if Lugo keeps going like he is, we are talking maybe next month!).

If he can restore his power game on top of all of that, and fulfill his promise as one of the better overall college hitters in the country in 2004, he will become a major fantasy asset as well.”

Jed was indeed considered one of the best college hitters in the country coming out of Stanford but an ankle injury dulled his shine in his first pro season and cast doubts on his ability to stay at SS.

Jed wowed all of us in the AA Eastern League this year as he hit .297 in 337 ABs with 8 HRs and a .502 SLG% (31 doubles). His K rate (17.2%) and BB rate (16.2%) were both pretty and level and he always seemed to be at the center of the game story.

His strong zone command took a hit with his promotion to Pawtucket however. His K rate bumped up to 20.6%, and his BB rate plummeted to 7.0%. That was down to 6.5% in August (he had 22 AAA ABs in July) but his K rate was down a hair to 19.6%. You would hope to see more adjustment in 150 ABs but he did maintain a .300 average (powered by a .352 BHIP%) and slugged .506 (15 doubles, 5 HRs).

I would have been more concerned about his power and slashing production not showing up at AAA than his plate discipline. I am confident that will come around.

All that is lacking from Jed’s game (in an MI context) is his lack of SBs. He has good speed but it does not look like steals will be part of his package. He can develop into a guy who can hit 15 HRs, and possibly more, out of the MI however (should he get to Fenway as a regular Jed would be a doubles machine in that ballpark). That is of course, if he can stay at SS, which I think he can.  If the Red Sox disagree, they will move him in trade because he will be a slightly below average producer from a corner position.

Long Term Fantasy Grade: Assuming he stays at SS I stick with my B+ from Volume 14. If he reestablishes his zone command and takes root at SS in Pawtucket next year, with can up his grade then.

These reports are just part of our Prospect Central section, every week we publish in-depth profiles on the players that you should be considering adding to your fantasy rosters. Who are the other rookies to consider this year? Sign up for our premium package and dominate your league starting today.