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2003 Prospect Central: Volume 11 - By Aaron Gleeman

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  One of the best and most exciting things about being in a “keeper league” is uncovering that future superstar player earlier than everyone else.  This week, I will look at some young hitters in that are still just in Single-A, and have star written all over them (hint: grab them now!).

NICK SWISHER – OF/1B

Organization: Oakland A’s

Acquired: Oakland’s first round pick (16th overall) in 2002 draft.

Bats: Switch

DOB: 11-25-1980

With their first of a record seven first-round picks in 2002, the Oakland A’s selected Nick Swisher, a switch-hitting outfielder from Ohio State University.  Swisher was a dominant offensive force at OSU, hitting .323/.452/.613 with 35 homers, 42 doubles and five triples in 169 career games, over three seasons.  He hit for a great average, big power and, perhaps most importantly, did an amazing job controlling the strike zone.  For his collegiate career he walked 131 times and had only 116 strikeouts.

Swisher made his pro debut last year, splitting the season between Single-A Vancouver of the Northwest (short-season) League and Single-A Visalia of the California (full-season) League.  He struggled with every aspect of his offensive game, except one: controlling the strike zone.  In 13 games at Vancouver he hit just .250 with two homers and three doubles.  At Visalia he hit just .240 in 183 at bats.

However, just as he did in college, Swisher was able to draw a ton of walks.  He walked 39 times in 62 games (102 walks/162 games) and had a .362 OBP despite a .242 batting average.

This year is a whole different story for Swisher.  He has continued to control the strike zone and now his other offensive skills are starting to show themselves.  He is currently batting .296 and has 10 homers and 14 doubles in 189 at bats.  And his excellent plate discipline has gotten even better.  Swisher has already walked 41 times in 51 games, which works out to about 130 walks in a full-season, which is amazing for such a young player (or any player).

Defensively, the A’s are still hoping Swisher can handle centerfield and there are many who think he will be able to.  If not, first base is his likely destination, because most feel he can be a Gold Glover there.  Offensively, I think Swisher’s potential is somewhat similar to a switch-hitting Jim Edmonds (.295/.380/.524 for his career).  He’ll hit for good averages, walk a ton and hit 20-30 homers and a lot of doubles.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

ANDY MARTE – 3B

Organization: Atlanta Braves

Acquired: Signed by Atlanta as an un-drafted free agent from Dominican Republic in 2000.

Bats: Right

DOB: 10-21-1983

The Atlanta Braves have a unique ability to take extremely young athletes and turn them into tremendous baseball players.  Whether it is foreign talents like Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones or an American-born player like Chipper Jones, the Braves get a hold of them early and mold them into stars.  Andruw Jones starred in the World Series at 19, Rafael Furcal won the NL Rookie-of-the-year at 21, and Chipper Jones had his first of eight straight 20+ homer seasons at 23.  Andy Marte is that type of player and, at just 19 years old right now, he is well on track to making his MLB debut before he is old enough to drink legally.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic for $600,000 in 2000, Andy Marte struggled in his first taste of pro ball in 2001.  Despite his sub par numbers (.200 AVG, 1 HR in 125 ABs), scouts were almost unanimous in their praise for Marte and their high hopes for his future. 

He lived up to the hype last year, hitting .281 with 21 homers, 32 doubles and a league-leading 105 runs batted in – all at the age of 18 and all while playing in one of the toughest parks in minor league baseball to hit in.

This year, Marte has continued to lace extra-base hits all over the field.  He has just 5 homers in 207 at bats, but has a league-leading 22 doubles and has also added taking walks to his rapidly growing offensive attack.  After walking only 41 times in 126 games last year, Marte has already walked 27 times in 57 games this season.

If the added plate discipline is for real, Andy Marte is pretty much the total package right now – at the age of 19.  He hits for average, he hits for power, he runs well and he plays what many feel will eventually be Gold Glove-caliber defense at third base.

The Braves have shown a definite willingness to aggressively promote prospects they feel are “special.”  If ever there was someone that met that description, it is Andy Marte.  I don’t know how fast he’ll get to Atlanta, but once he does, he’s going to be a star.

Gleeman long-term grade: A-

PRINCE FIELDER – 1B

Organization: Milwaukee Brewers

Acquired: Milwaukee’s first round pick (7th overall) in 2002 draft.

Bats: Left

DOB: 5-9-1984

Prince Fielder is Cecil Fielder’s “little” boy.  Except...well, he isn’t so little.  Prince is officially listed at six feet tall and 260 pounds, which brings to mind a quote from the great Bill James about (coincidentally enough) Cecil Fielder: “Fielder acknowledges a weight of 261, leaving unanswered the question of what he might weigh if he put his other foot on the scale.”

Occasionally lost behind the extra pounds and the not-so-athletic appearance is the fact that Prince Fielder can flat out hit and has perhaps as much power potential as any player in minor league baseball.  So far, in 466 career at bats as a pro, Fielder has 21 homers and 29 doubles.  And he didn’t turn 19 years old until last month. 

In addition to the massive body and the massive power, Prince Fielder has an excellent approach at the plate.  He goes up there looking for a pitch that he can destroy and, if he doesn’t get it, he doesn’t swing.  Fielder has 82 career walks in 133 games and has an 82/92 BB/K ratio.

If Prince Fielder can have the sort of career his father had, he’ll have been a tremendous first-round pick for the Brewers.  In fact, Prince’s performances thus far are actually very similar to Cecil’s at the point...

First pro season:

Prince (age 18) - .326/.448/.550 with 13 homers, 19 doubles, 47 walks,

54 strikeouts in 73 games.

Cecil (age 19) - .322/.403/.645 with 20 homers 28 doubles, 37 walks, 62 strikeouts in 69 games.

Second pro season:

Prince (age 19) – .284/.398/.457 with 8 homers, 10 doubles, 35 walks, 39 strikeouts.

Cecil (age 20) - .312/.384/.472 with 16 homers, 28 doubles, 58 walks, 90 strikeouts in 140 games.

They really are remarkably similar.  Cecil was showing a little more power than Prince is, but he also walked less, struck out more and was a year old than his son.

Just as it is the difference between him and his father at the same point, Prince’s plate discipline and control of the strike zone is the thing that I believe may eventually make him a cut above other slugging first basemen.  While Cecil had a great career and hit 319 homers (including 51 and 44 in back-to-back years) and drove in over a thousand runs, he did so walking an average of “only” 76 times per full-season, while striking out almost twice as often.

Prince Fielder has shown an incredible ability to take pitches, work long counts, get pitches to crush and, when he doesn’t get them, to take walks.  That, along with his light-tower power and great baseball bloodlines are the reason why he has tremendous offensive potential.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF

Organization: Milwaukee Brewers

Acquired: Milwaukee’s fourth round pick in 2001 draft.

Bats: Left

DOB: 12-23-1982

Brad Nelson was an underrated, lesser-known prospect heading into this season and he’s even more so now, having missed most of the year with a wrist injury.  Wrist injuries are always iffy, particularly with hitters that rely on their power and strength.  That said, if Nelson can make a full recovery, he has almost unlimited potential

One of the first things I look for in a hitting prospect in the low levels of the minor leagues are his doubles totals.  For young hitters, home runs often don’t come in bunches, but their doubles hitting can often be an indicator of future home run power, which will come as the player matures.  Under that theory, Brad Nelson is one of the best power prospects in the minors leagues.  Nelson led all of minor league baseball in doubles last season with 49.  In addition to the 49 two-baggers, Nelson also smacked 20 over the fence – and he did all that in only 132 games.  Projected over a full, 162-game season that comes out to 60 doubles and 25 homers – monster numbers for a 19 year old.

I had Nelson on my “keep an eye on” list this year, because I expected a lot of those doubles to start turning into homers.  The wrist injury certain sidetracks that development significantly, but Nelson is still very young and definitely on track to becoming a very valuable hitter.

The Brewers actually have a log-jam of potential first basemen, starting with Richie Sexson in the big leagues and including Prince Fielder and Brad Nelson in the minors.  Because of that (and Prince Fielder’s immobility), Nelson may wind up in the outfield when he gets to the majors.  He’ll never be great out there but, with his bat, he won’t have to be.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

JUSTIN HUBER – C

Organization: New York Mets

Acquired: Signed by New York as an un-drafted free agent from Australia in 2000.

Bats: Right

DOB: 7-1-1982

With Mike Piazza’s recent injury and the subsequent talk of him moving to first base sooner rather than later, now is a pretty good time to be a catching prospect in the Mets’ system.  And Justin Huber is a good one.

The Mets signed Huber out of Australia a couple years ago and he has hit at every stop in their organization thus far.  He isn’t blessed with huge power yet, but he has a very good approach at the plate, a quick bat and excellent plate discipline.  He walked 56 times in 123 games last year and has 14 walks 39 games this season.  Plus, he doesn’t mind “taking one for the team” and was hit by 29 pitches last season and eight more so far this year.

Huber is not great behind the plate.  He has decent quickness and athleticism, but does not have a great arm.  Still, he should be a definite improvement over Piazza in regard to limiting the running game.

Huber has the potential to be one of the better all-around catchers in baseball in a few years.  He will hit for solid batting averages, control the strike zone, post solid on-base percentages and he has the power potential to possibly hit for 25+ homers a year in the big leagues eventually.

If I had to guess, I’d say that, right around the time Piazza is ready  to make the full-time switch to first base, Justin Huber will be ready to replace him behind the plate. 

First Gary Carter, then Mike Piazza and pretty soon Justin Huber – those Mets fans are going to get spoiled with their catchers.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

Other Single-A stud prospects discussed in prior editions of Prospect Central:

B.J. Upton – Prospect Central: Volume Three

Hanley Ramirez – Prospect Central: Volume Three

Jason Stokes – Prospect Central: Volume Seven

Jeff Mathis – Prospect Central: Volume Seven

Casey Kotchman – Prospect Central: Volume Seven

Joe Mauer – Prospect Central: Volume Seven

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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