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2003 Prospect Central: Volume Nineteen

By Aaron Gleeman 

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  This week I will look at prospects who were recently traded to new organizations.

RYAN HANNAMAN – SP

Organization: Baltimore Orioles

Acquired: San Francisco’s fourth round pick in 2000 draft; traded to Baltimore in Sidney Ponson deal in 2003.

Throws: Left

DOB: 8-28-1981

Originally a fourth round pick of the Giants back in 2000, Ryan Hannaman came to the Orioles in the deadline deal for Sidney Ponson last week.  Hannaman is the lesser name of the three young pitchers Baltimore received, with  Kurt Ainsworth (Prospect Central: Volume One) being the better prospect and Damian Moss being the bigger name and established big league pitcher.  Although Baltimore did get two other, better known pitchers in the deal, Hannaman was definitely not a “toss-in” by any means.

Hannaman has very impressive stuff for a left-hander, with a fastball that can touch the mid-90s.  Like San Francisco’s great young right-hander, Jesse Foppert (Prospect Central: Volume Two), Hannaman was originally a position player before being switched full-time to pitcher after being drafted by the Giants.  Since the switch, he’s had nothing but success. 

In his first full-season, last year, Hannaman pitched 132 innings at Single-A with a 2.80 ERA and a very nice 145/46 strikeout/walk ratio.  After walking over five batters per nine innings during the 2001 season, Hannaman appeared to have made tremendous strides in his control, dropping his walk rate all the way down to a more acceptable 3.1/9 IP.

So far this year, his control has regressed and appears to be Hannaman’s main weakness at this point.  His strikeout rate, which has always been excellent, remains so this season at 11.0/9 IP.  His walk rate is back up to 4.6/9 IP, which is beginning to get into the “danger zone” for pitchers, where it significantly affects their ability to pitch consistently.  Hannaman is still young and inexperienced as a pitcher so his inability to consistently harness his tremendous stuff is understandable to a degree, which is reason to not become overly concerned – yet.

There is some talk that Hannaman may eventually make the move from starter to the bullpen, where he could better take advantage of his stuff and where his lack of control would likely become less of an issue.  That move, if it does happen, is still well into the future though.  For now, Hannaman joins a Baltimore organization severely lacking in quality prospects and immediately becomes one of their best young pitchers, if not the best.

Gleeman long-term grade: B

KENNY KELLY – OF

Organization: New York Mets

Acquired: Tampa Bay’s second round pick in 1997 draft; sold to Seattle in 2001; traded to New York in Rey Sanchez deal in 2003.

Bats: Right

DOB: 1-26-1979

Those of you who are college football fans may remember Kenny Kelly from his days as the University of Miami’s starting quarterback.  Kelly was lured away from football and convinced to play baseball full-time when the Devil Rays, who originally drafted him in the second round of the 1997 draft, gave him a bonus in excess of two million dollars in 2000.  At which point, Ken Dorsey took over as the Canes’ QB – and we all know how well that turned out.  On the other hand, since concentrating on baseball full-time, Kelly has not had a whole lot of success.

Kelly hit just .258/.338/.337 in 2000 and the Devil Rays sold his rights to the Mariners shortly before the 2001 season began.  In his first year in the Seattle organization, Kelly hit .262/.326/.393 and, while he flashed more power than he had before, his walk rate remained poor and he struck out 111 times in only 121 games.  Last year, at Triple-A, Kelly hit .248/.296/.417 and once again had horrible walk and strikeout rates.  His power continued to develop slightly and he played good defense like he always does, but Kelly’s prospect light has dimmed considerably.  He repeated Triple-A this season and was hitting .246/.313/.434 before being sent to the Mets in exchange for Rey Sanchez last week.

Kenny Kelly is thought of as a potential leadoff man, so the fact that he has yet to show any sort of discipline at the plate and his batting average has been below .250 for two straight years now is a pretty bad sign.  The low batting averages and lack on on-base skills definitely outweighs the slight development of his power and his slugging percentage rising over the last several years.

He is already 24 years old so his days of being a “real” prospect are numbered, although his baseball experience is less than most at his age.  Still, his actual performances have not been particularly encouraging and, at this point, the best case scenario seems like a 4th outfielder/defense specialist type of player.

Kenny Kelly’s “tools” and athleticism are second-to-none.  He’s got great speed, is a tremendous defensive centerfielder and no one looks better in a baseball uniform.  The actual results, however, have simply never been there and the time for them to arrive and the reasons for optimism are quickly disappearing.

Gleeman long-term grade: C

PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Organization: Cincinnati Reds

Acquired: Boston’s first round pick (22nd overall) in 2000 draft; traded to Cincinnati in Scott Williamson deal in 2003.

Throws: Left

DOB: 7-12-1981

Phil Dumatrait was the 22nd overall pick in the 2000 draft and was sent to the Reds in the deadline deal that brought Scott Williamson to the Red Sox last week.  Prior to being traded, Dumatrait was one of the top pitching prospects in the Boston organization and he immediately becomes one of the better prospects the Reds have as well.

Dumatrait has very good stuff for a left-hander and his minor league performances have been very solid.  He posted a 2.77 ERA in 120 innings in the South Atlantic (Single-A) League last season.  Despite the good numbers there, Dumatrait ended the season on a sour note.  He was promoted to high-A Sarasota for the end of the season and started four games, pitching a total of 14 innings – while walking 15 batters.  That’s a small sample-size for sure, but any time a young pitcher walks more than a batter per inning it is concerning.

So far this year, Dumatrait’s control problems have stayed with him.  In 104 innings back at Sarasota before being traded, Dumatrait struck out 74 batters (6.4/9), while walking 59 (5.1/9).  Now, 59 walks in 104 innings is certainly not reason to give up on a young pitcher, but it’s far from good and, combined with a strikeout rate that has fallen dramatically, it is not a great sign for his future.

Despite his high walk rate and drop in strikeouts this year, Dumatrait has still been very successful this year, with a 3.02 ERA at Single-A before the deal.  That said, he’s going to have to improve either his control or strikeout rate – or both – if he’s going to live up to his promise in the major leagues.  He’s definitely still young and talented enough to do so.  Dumatrait doesn’t project as a dominant starter in the majors, but I think he can become a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Reds in a few years.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

JOE VALENTINE – RP

Organization: Cincinnati Reds

Acquired: Chicago’s 26th round pick in 1999 draft; selected by Detroit in Rule V Draft in 2001; contract purchased by Expos in 2001; given back to Chicago in 2002; traded to Oakland in Keith Foulke/Billy Koch deal in 2002; traded to Cincinnati in Jose Guillen deal in 2003.

Throws: Right

DOB: 12-24-1979

Joe Valentine doesn’t turn 24 years old until December, but he’s already been around the block a few times.  Originally a 26th round pick of the White Sox in 1999, Valentine was selected by the Tigers in the Rule V draft during the 2001 off-season.  The Rule V draft rules stipulate that a player must remain on the 25-man roster of the team that selects him for the entire season or they are forced to offer him back to his original team. 

The Tigers decided they weren’t going to be able to keep Valentine all season, so they sold his contract to the Expos, for whom the same rules applied.  When the Expos decided the same, he was sent back to the White Sox right before the start of the 2002 season.

So, in essence, Valentine just spent the off-season as a member of the Tigers and Expos and then, as soon as the season began, resumed his career with the White Sox organization.  He had a very nice 2002 season, serving as Double-A Birmingham’s closer.  Valentine pitched 59 innings with a 1.97 ERA, striking out 63 while walking 30.  He limited batters to a .173 batting average and gave up just one homer all year.

This off-season, Valentine was on the move again.  He was part of the package the White Sox sent to Oakland in exchange for Billy Koch and prospect Neal Cotts.  Valentine has spent this season as the closer at Triple-A Sacramento and has struggled a bit.  He had a 4.82 ERA in 52 innings and, after giving up a grand-total of just four homers in his first 181 minor league innings, gave up five long balls in 52 innings this year.

Last week, the A’s sent Valentine to the Reds as part of the package for outfielder Jose Guillen.  Despite his struggles this year, Valentine is just about major league ready and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is given a shot at replacing Scott Williamson as the team’s closer in the near future.  Because of that, he’s definitely worth a look in a keeper league that gives points for saves.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

Past subjects of Prospect Central who were recently traded:

Bubba Crosby – Prospect Central: Volume Nine

“If you didn’t have his career stats in front of you and you just knew that Bubba Crosby was the Dodgers’ first round pick in the 1998 draft after an outstanding college career at Rice, it probably wouldn’t shock you to hear that he was tearing up Triple-A this year.  One look at his previous performances in the minors though, and you’d be plenty surprised.

So what does his performance so far in 2003 mean?  Is it him finally breaking out, finally fulfilling his promise?  It’s possible, but I find it highly unlikely.  There just aren’t many instances of players completely lacking any sort of power for 1,700 or so odd at bats and then suddenly having something “click” inside them, making them a great hitter.  That said, Crosby is still “only” 26 years old, so he has not reached “Crash Davis minor league veteran” status yet.  He’s still got time to make a move and give himself an opportunity to become a major leaguer and he is certainly off to a good start this year.  He’s worth watching and it would be a fun story, but I just doubt it’s going to happen.”

Kurt Ainsworth – Prospect Central: Volume One

“Kurt Ainsworth is 24 years old and as ready for the majors as he or any pitching prospect will ever be.  The Giants have a ton of good, young starting pitchers in their system right now, but Ainsworth is the most experienced and most advanced.  He works with a wide assortment of quality pitches, including a low-90s fastball, good breaking stuff and a hard sinker – which he uses to coax tons of ground balls out of hitters.

I don’t think Ainsworth will ever truly be an “ace” starter, but he definitely has the potential to be a quality top-of-the-rotation guy and should have quite a bit of success in his rookie season, particularly pitching at home.”

Freddy Sanchez – Prospect Central: Volume Four

“Freddy Sanchez is in the unfortunately situation of being a nice, solid player in an organization with a huge payroll and a tendency to not want to settle for “nice” players.  Sanchez was looking at possibly being in the Boston second base mix this year, but the Red Sox went out and brought in Todd Walker during off-season.  Sanchez can also play shortstop, but that’s not going to happen with the Red Sox anytime soon.

If given a chance, Freddy Sanchez will produce.  He has a career minor league batting average of .319 in nearly 1,200 at bats, including a combined .318 between Double-A and Triple-A last season.  He makes very good contact at the plate (only 117 strikeouts in his last 952 at bats) and has gradually improved his plate discipline, however slightly.  He doesn’t have great speed, but he actually started stealing bases for the first time in his entire career last season, swiping 24 bags, compared to only 14 in his first two seasons.”

Brandon Claussen – Prospect Central: Volume Fourteen

“Brandon Claussen suffered a serious elbow injury last season and underwent Tommy John surgery mid-way through the year.  His recovery has been nothing short of extraordinary.  Not only is he back significantly ahead of schedule, he has been phenomenal in the minor leagues this season, showing absolutely no ill-effects from the injury.

If the Yankees go out and get a big-ticket item in the trade-market this year, you can almost bet Claussen will be involved.”

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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