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Prospect Central: Volume Twenty Five (2003)

By Aaron Gleeman

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  Back in May (Prospect Central: Volume Eight), I identified my “Top 10 Pitching Prospects” in all of baseball for this season.  Then last week, I looked at the pitchers ranked 6-10 on that list, to see how they faired this season and how that has impacted their prospect status.  This week, I will examine pitchers 1-5 on the list.

5) GAVIN FLOYD - SP

Organization: Philadelphia Phillies

Acquired: Philadelphia’s 1st round pick (4th overall) in 2001 draft.

Throws: Right

DOB: 1-27-1983

So far, Gavin Floyd has been the perfect first round draft pick, the sort of guy that teams look at when they make the decision to draft high school pitchers with top picks.  While many high schoolers struggle with control or injuries, or both, Floyd has spent a year at each of Philadelphia’s Single-A levels, with his second season looking almost identical to his first.

Last year, Floyd had a 2.77 ERA and struck out 7.6 batters per nine innings.  This season, Floyd had a 3.00 ERA and struck out 7.5 batters per nine innings.  In addition to maintaining almost identical strikeout numbers while moving up a level, Floyd also improved his control by 20%, which is a very encouraging sign.

Right now, the only downside to Floyd is that his strikeout rate isn’t that great and doesn’t quite match the quality of his “stuff.”  7.6 and 7.6 strikeouts per game aren’t bad figures, but they aren’t the types of numbers that usually go along with elite pitching prospects.  At just 20 years old, he is obviously still learning how to pitch, so a jump in strikeouts in the future is definitely a possibility.

I would expect Gavin Floyd to begin next season at Double-A and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him pitching in Philadelphia before the end of next season.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

4) SCOTT KAZMIR - SP

Organization: New York Mets

Acquired: New York’s 1st round pick (15th overall) in 2002 draft.

Throws: Left

DOB: 1-24-1984

New York’s first round pick in 2002, Scott Kazmir came into this season with perhaps the most potential and the highest “ceiling” of any pitching prospect in baseball.  Of course, as a diminutive, fire-balling lefty just a couple years out of high school, he is also a long shot to reach that potential.  That said, the early results are certainly on his side.

This past season was Kazmir’s first full year of pro baseball and he did very well.  He began the season at Capital City of the South Atlantic (low Single-A) League and made 18 starts with a 2.36 ERA.  He struck out an amazing 105 batters in 76.1 innings, limited opponents to a .185 batting average and had a strikeout/walk ratio of nearly 4-1.

The Mets promoted him St. Lucie of the Florida State (high Single-A) League near the end of the year and Kazmir made seven starts with a 3.27 ERA.  Once again, he had a fantastic strikeout rate (40 Ks in 33 IP), but his control was worse than it was earlier in the year.

Scott Kazmir doesn’t turn 20 years old until the end of January, so he is extremely far away from fulfilling his incredible potential, but what he has done in his first two seasons of minor league ball is pretty incredible.

Combined between last season and this season, Kazmir pitched a total of 127 innings with a 2.33 ERA.  He racked up 179 strikeouts (12.7/9 IP), walked just 51 batters, and gave up just 84 hits.  Those are amazing, video-game type numbers.  Sure, he’s only 19 and sure, he’s only reached high Single-A, but it is impossible to ignore what Scott Kazmir can possibly become.  If this kid can avoid serious injuries, which is a huge “if” for a young power-pitcher, he will be something very special 

Gleeman long-term grade: A

3) FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP

Organization: Anaheim Angels

Acquired: Signed by Anaheim as un-drafted free agent out of Venezuela in 1998.

Throws: Right

DOB: 1-7-1982

After watching Francisco Rodriguez during the post-season last year, I think most people expected him to have a 1.00 ERA and 300 strikeouts this season.  So, in that sense, his rookie year has been a bit of disappointment.  In every other sense, he has been fantastic.

Rodriguez has spent the entire year pitching out of Anaheim’s bullpen, as both a setup-man and a middle-reliever.  He has appeared in 53 games, pitching a total of 78 innings with a 2.65 ERA.  Great numbers, especially for a 21 year old rookie – and they get even better.

K-Rod has 85 strikeouts in those 78 innings (9.8/9 IP) and has limited opposing batters to an absolutely ridiculous .170 batting average, which is the best figure of any pitcher in the American League.

Rodriguez started slow, posting a 5.40 ERA in April and a 4.40 ERA in May.  Since then, he has pitched a total of 52 innings with a 1.21 ERA and 60 strikeouts.  In other words, he’s been that guy we all saw last October.

Right-handed batters are hitting .156 off him on the year, and lefties are hitting .183.  He has a 3.00 ERA in the first-half and a 2.10 ERA in the second-half.  He’s got a 2.66 ERA at home and a 2.65 ERA on the road.  Whatever stats you want to look at, Francisco Rodriguez has been one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball this season, and he’s done it at the age of 21 and in his first full major league season.

I suspect if we all hadn’t been so impressed and amazed with him during the post-season last year, Francisco Rodriguez be getting a lot more attention for the year he is putting together right now.

Gleeman long-term grade: A

2) RICH HARDEN - SP

Organization: Oakland A’s

Acquired: Oakland’s 17th round pick in 2000 draft.

Throws: Right

DOB: 11-30-1981

Rich Harden was probably the most talked about pitching prospect in baseball this season, not only because of his excellent pitching abilities, but also because of his team, the Oakland A’s.  The idea of Oakland adding Harden to a rotation that already included young stud pitchers Barry Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson was enough to make every baseball fan jealous and every American League team scared.  “The Big Three” was about to become “The Big Four.”

Harden began the year in Double-A, making two starts and allowing zero hits and zero walks in 13 innings.  After those two perfect starts, he was quickly promoted to Triple-A, where he started to give up some hits, although not many.  Harden pitched a total of 88.2 innings at Triple-A Sacramento, going 9-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 91 strikeouts.  He held batters to a .225 batting average and had a strikeout/walk ratio of nearly 3-1.

The A’s called him up in late July and after his first four major leagues starts, Harden was 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA.  After that, the league started to catch up with him and he went through a particularly rough patch in August.  On the year, Harden is now 5-4 with a 4.83 ERA in 11 starts.  He has 58 strikeouts in 58.2 innings pitched and has allowed just five home runs.  His control has not been good however, with 30 walks in those 58.2 innings.

With Mark Mulder going down with a potentially season-ending hip injury, Harden will be asked to take on a larger role down the stretch for Oakland and could even be asked to make a post-season start at some point.  He is certainly not un-hittable, as his 4.83 ERA shows, but that figure is skewed by one really awful start and Harden has certainly shown the ability to dominate major league hitters.

If you still have a chance to grab Rich Harden is a keeper league, I suggest you do it ASAP.  If he follows in the footsteps of Zito, Mulder and Hudson, next season, his first full-season in the majors, is going to be a big one.  If Mulder is completely healthy for next year, Oakland’s starting rotation could be absolutely incredible.

Gleeman long-term grade: A+

1) JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Organization: San Francisco Giants

Acquired: San Francisco’s 2nd round pick in 2001 draft.

Throws: Right

DOB: 7-10-1980

Ah, the dangers of pitching prospects.  There are those who believe there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.  In fact, that phrase now has it’s own acronym: TINSTAAPP.  The thought being that there are so many things that can happen to a young pitcher to ruin his career before it even gets started that everything a young pitcher does should be taken with a grain of salt until he reaches the major leagues.

Prior to the season, I ranked Jesse Foppert as the number one pitching prospect in all of baseball.  Now he’s just another young pitcher on the long list of young pitchers who met serious roadblocks on the path to stardom.

Foppert began the season at Triple-A, but was called up to the Giants after making just one start.  In his first taste of the majors, Foppert was brilliant at times, but struggled quite a bit.  His strikeout rate was good, but not as spectacular as it was in the minors.  His control was horrible and he was serving up tons of home runs.  There were concerns that his velocity was down significantly from where it was throughout his minor league career.

When I wrote about Foppert at the beginning of the season, I said that “if his velocity stays lower than it has been in the minors, that is a huge concern and something definitely worth keeping an eye on.”  Turns out, it was a sign of serious trouble.

Soon after topping 100 innings pitched on the year, Foppert began experiencing a lack of feeling in his right arm.  It was diagnosed as a nerve problem and Foppert was placed on the disabled list.  Then, during his rehab for the nerve injury, Foppert was in the middle of throwing a “simulated game” when he felt something “pop” in his elbow.

The lack of velocity, the lack of sensation in his arm and then a “pop” in his elbow – it is not a good series of events for a 23 year old pitcher.  It turns out that “pop” Foppert heard was the sound of someone in need of elbow reconstruction surgery, also known as “Tommy John Surgery.”  It is the same injury many pitchers have experienced and the same surgery many pitchers have gone through, and then have gone on to have great careers.  But it also means 12-18 months of recovery and rehabilitation, so Foppert will miss at least the entire 2004 season.

The list of pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery is a long and distinguished one, starting with the man the procedure is named after, Tommy John.  It also includes David Wells, Kerry Wood, Matt Morris, Odalis Perez, Kris Benson, John Smoltz, Mariano Rivera, Jason Isringhausen, Scott Williamson, Billy Koch, Tom Gordon and new members of the club, A.J. Burnett, Paul Byrd and Rick Ankiel. 

As the many good pitchers on that list can attest to, coming back from the injury is certainly likely and coming back to pitch as well or better than you did before the surgery is also a very real possibility.  Whether or not that will happen in Jesse Foppert’s case is unknown, but the injury and the missed time is a tough blow to a young pitcher’s career and another data point in favor of the TINSTAAPP theory.

Gleeman long-term grade: B

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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