Hello and welcome to the forth season of Prospect Central.  Throughout the year, we look at prospects around baseball each and every week, from toolsy standouts in rookie-ball to polished studs who just made their major-league debuts.

Here's an example of our weekly prospect reporting from prior seasons.

Matt Garza, Minnesota Twins

Position: Starter | Throws: Right | DOB: 11/11/1983

YEAR   LVL    G   GS      IP    ERA     H   HR    SO   BB

2005     R    4    4    19.2   3.66    14    3    25    6

         A   10   10    56.0   3.54    53    5    64   15

2006     A    8    8    44.1   1.42    27    3    53   11

        AA    5    5    34.0   1.85    20    1    33    7

       AAA   10   10    57.1   2.51    40    2    68   14

A first-round pick out of Fresno State University last June, Matt Garza pitched well between rookie-ball and low Single-A after signing, and has emerged as one of baseball’s truly elite prospects in his second full season.  Garza began this year at Single-A, moved up to Double-A after just eight starts, and was promoted to Triple-A a month later.  He went 14-4 between the three levels, combining to post the following absolutely ridiculous numbers:  135.2 innings, 1.99 ERA, 154 strikeouts, 32 walks, .179 opponent’s batting average.

Allowing just 87 hits in 135.2 innings is a huge part of what makes Garza a great prospect, and of particular note is that he served up only six homers. Even more so than win-loss records or ERAs, the three things to focus on when it comes to pitching prospects are strikeouts, walks, and homers. Garza is about as good as it gets in all three of those areas, which is why he has the potential to give the Twins three “No. 1 starters” along with Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano.

Unfortunately, Garza’s first taste of the majors is coming as a result of Liriano’s elbow problems.  He was called up last week and made his big-league debut Friday against the Blue Jays, starting the game with two impressive strikeouts before getting knocked around for seven runs in two-plus innings.  Garza throws extremely hard, but appeared overly reliant on his fastball against Toronto.  With that said, he has the stuff to be successful relatively soon and over the long haul there are few young pitchers with more upside.  Don’t let the first start scare you off; he’s for real.

Fantistics Long-Term Fantasy Grade: A

Jason Hirsh, Houston Astros

Position: Starter | Throws: Right | DOB: 2/20/1982

YEAR   LVL    G   GS      IP    ERA     H   HR    SO   BB

2004     A   26   23   130.1   4.01   128    8    96   57

2005    AA   29   29   172.1   2.87   137   12   165   42

2006   AAA   23   23   137.1   2.10    94    5   118   51

A second-round pick out of Division III Cal-Lutheran University in 2003, Jason Hirsh began his pro career as a relative soft-tosser, especially given his intimidating 6-foot-8 frame.  After posting a 4.01 ERA and just 96 strikeouts in 130.1 innings at Single-A in 2004, he didn’t look like a particularly promising pitcher.  However, since then he’s added a significant amount of velocity to his fastball and in doing so has blossomed into one of the best, most underrated pitching prospects around.

Hirsh went 13-8 with a 2.87 ERA and 165-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 172.1 innings at Double-A last season and began this year by going 13-2 with a 2.13 ERA and 118-to-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 137.1 innings at Triple-A.  The strikeout rate dropped quite a bit and the strikeout-to-walk ratio was barely above 2-to-1, but it’s tough to argue with the results.  The Astros agreed, calling Hirsh up over the weekend, but he lasted just four innings (and gave up three homers) against the Padres in his debut Saturday.

Hirsh projects as a solid No. 3 starter who could develop into a top-of-the-rotation guy by boosting his strikeout rate a bit more.  His minor-league numbers suggest he should be able to keep the ball in the ballpark despite what San Diego did to him Saturday, and he’s done an excellent job suppressing hits for the past two years.  Hirsh is a lot better bet than any number of better-known pitching prospects and should get a chance as a full-time member of Houston’s rotation coming out of spring training.

Fantistics Long-Term Fantasy Grade: A-

Edinson Volquez, Texas Rangers

Position: Starter | Throws: Right | DOB: 7/3/1983

YEAR   LVL    G   GS      IP    ERA     H   HR    SO   BB

2004     A   21   15    87.2   4.21    82    8    74   27

         A    8    8    39.2   2.95    31    6    34   14

2005     A   11   11    66.2   4.18    64    9    77   12

        AA   10   10    58.2   4.14    58    6    49   17

       MLB    6    3    12.2  14.21    25    3    11   10

2006   AAA   21   21   120.2   3.21    86    9   130   72

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2001 as Julio Reyes before being revealed to be  Edinson Volquez following visa problems, Volquez aged over a year in the process.  Still plenty young, he officially broke out as a prospect last season, posting great strikeout-to-walk ratios despite sub par ERAs at Single-A and Double-A.  However, Volquez’s season ended on a very sour note, as he was destroyed in a six-game stint with the Rangers, posting a hideous 14.21 ERA in 12.2 innings.

There was some talk of Volquez making the Rangers out of spring training this year, but instead he began the season at Triple-A and got off to a horrible start.  He turned things around after a couple months, pitching well enough to drop his ERA to 3.20 in 120.2 innings and earn a call-up to Texas last week.  Volquez struggled in his first start, but tossed seven shutout innings against the Mariners Saturday night to likely secure a spot in the starting rotation for at least a little while longer.

While Volquez is very highly thought of as a prospect and the ERA at Triple-A was nice, his 130-to-72 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 120.2 innings leaves a lot to be desired.  The sudden inability to throw strikes is out of character with the rest of his track record, so that’s something that figures to fix itself.  With that said, Volquez seems a tad overrated in most prospect circles and there are more doubts about his ability to be a long-term top-of-the-rotation starter than many probably think.  He’s good, but not an elite prospect.

Fantistics Long-Term Fantasy Grade: B

Ryan Garko, Cleveland Indians

Position: First Base | Bats: Right | DOB: 1/2/1981

YEAR   LVL    AB    AVG    OBP    SLG   HR  XBH   BB   SO

2004     A   238   .328   .425   .609   16   34   26   34

        AA   172   .331   .397   .523    6   21   14   28

       AAA    24   .375   .393   .417    0    1    2    4

2005   AAA   452   .303   .384   .498   19   47   44   92

2006   AAA   363   .248   .353   .421   15   33   45   66

A college star at Stanford University, Cleveland grabbed Ryan Garko in the third round of the 2003 draft.  He struggled a bit at low Single-A after signing, but then had a huge year in 2004, hitting .328 at Single-A, .331 at Double-A, and .375 in a brief stint at Triple-A to end the season.  Garko then followed it up with an impressive campaign at Triple-A last year, hitting .303/.384/.498 with 19 homers and 47 total extra-base hits in 127 games before a one-game cup of coffee with the Indians.

Originally a catcher, Cleveland moved Garko out from behind the plate and made him a full-time first baseman this year, which cuts his potential value significantly.  Along with that, he’s already 25 years old and put up surprising mediocre numbers while repeating Triple-A, hitting just .248/.353/.421 with 15 homers and 33 total extra-base hits in 102 games before being called up last week.  The good news is that Garko’s track record suggests he should rebound in terms of batting average, and his power actually remained relatively stable: 

YEAR     IsoP     XBH/AB

2004     .233     .129

2005     .195     .104

2006     .173     .091

If Garko can get his batting average back up over .280 or so, an Isolated Power of .173 and an extra-base hit in 10 percent of his at-bats will serve him plenty well.  With Ben Broussard traded to Seattle and Casey Blake on the disabled list, Garko has a chance to establish himself as Cleveland’s first baseman of the immediate future.  For now he’ll platoon there with Victor Martinez—another catcher some have suggested should move out from behind the plate—and is someone to watch in AL-only leagues down the stretch.

Fantistics Long-Term Fantasy Grade: B

Alberto Callaspo, Arizona Diamondbacks

Position: Second Base | Bats: Right | DOB: 4/19/1983

YEAR   LVL    AB    AVG    OBP    SLG   HR  XBH   BB   SO

2004    AA   544   .285   .339   .377    6   36   47   25

2005    AA   350   .297   .346   .409   10   19   28   17

       AAA   212   .316   .346   .448    1   24   10   13

2006   AAA   447   .336   .403   .470    5   38   51   23

Signed out of Venezuela by the Angels back in 2001, Alberto Callaspo hit .338 with 13 steals at rookie-ball in 2002 and batted .327 with 20 steals at Single-A in 2003.  He then moved up to Double-A in 2004 and struggled a bit, hitting .285/.339/.377 with six homers and 36 total extra-base hits in 135 games while being thrown out on 14 of his 29 stolen-base attempts.  Asked to repeat Double-A in 2005, Callaspo put up similar numbers before a promotion to Triple-A, where he batted .316/.346/.448 in 50 games to finish the season.

With a ton of elite middle-infield prospects ahead of him on the organization’s long-term depth chart—Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar—the Angels decided to deal him to the Diamondbacks this winter for reliever prospect Jason Bulger.  Callaspo reported to Arizona’s Triple-A team and hit .336/.403/.470 with five homers and 38 total extra-base hits in 104 games before being called up last week.  His playing time in the majors will be limited as long as Orlando Hudson and Stephen Drew are around, but Callaspo has a chance to replace Hudson as the team’s starting second baseman in 2007.

Callaspo has sub par power and, despite decent speed, isn’t a good base-stealer.  That will limit his fantasy potential in traditional roto leagues, but he remains a solid real-life prospect.  Not only has Callaspo consistently posted big batting averages, he shows decent plate discipline and an incredible ability to make contract, posting a 23-to-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Triple-A this season and a 97-to-144 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 477 career games heading into this year.  Callaspo is one of those guys fantasy baseball underrates, which is a shame.

Fantistics Long-Term Grade: B-

Zach Ward, Minnesota Twins

Position: Starter | Throws: Right | DOB: 1/14/1984

YEAR   LVL    G   GS      IP    ERA     H   HR    SO   BB

2006     A   22   20   122.1   2.57    80    2   104   39

Drafted by the Reds out of Gardner-Webb University in the third round last June, Zach Ward made his pro debut at low Single-A this season and pitched brilliantly, going 7-0 with a 2.29 ERA in 20 games.  He was then sent to the Twins in the deal that netted the Reds Kyle Lohse, the explanation for which can only be that new general manager Wayne Krivsky had no problem parting with the previous regimes draft picks in order to acquire more mediocre players he remembers from his time as assistant GM in Minnesota.

The Twins gladly took Ward, who now has a 104-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 122.1 innings this season after making two starts for Minnesota’s low Single-A team.  That’s a good number, but even more impressive is Ward’s .188 opponent’s batting average and the fact that he’s allowed a grand total of just two homers in those 122.1 innings.  Ward is among the most extreme ground-ball pitchers in the minors, which makes his long-term prospects even better than his raw numbers suggest.

It’s worth noting that Ward is already 22 years old and still hasn’t advanced to even high Single-A, which is why his numbers are somewhat less impressive than they first appear.  However, the Twins have done extremely well with pitching prospects over the past few years and Ward gives them yet another promising young arm to work with.  Ward may not project as a future ace, but there’s a good chance the Reds will eventually regret giving him up.

Fantistics Long-Term Fantasy Grade: C+

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