EYE is an important statistic we can use to validate other statistics (which is a key element of our two-front in-season strategy).  So...to answer the question...just what is EYE anyway?  It is defined as BB/K for batters, and is a statistic you often hear used to justify or knock a players ability to hit for (or to maintain) a high batting average consistently.  Rather than accepting this correlation as fact without evidence, I gathered some evidence myself last season and presented the results in a First Pitch column like this.  I have revisited the numbers and analyzed them in a slightly different way, so we are dealing with a full five years of data (as opposed to a three-year average in last year’s study). 

The first step in this exercise was to define my population.  I decided to use data for all qualifying batters (which means that they qualified for the batting title – which is defined as 3.1 plate appearances for every game his team played) for the last 5 seasons.  This came to 790 distinct records, with AVGs ranging from .372 to .202.  In the chart below, the AVG column is self-explanatory, EYE column represents mean BB/K ratio for all player-seasons that fell into the range specified in the AVG column, and % represents the percentage of player-seasons (of the 790 record sample population) that fell into that range.

This chart may not look like a lot of info, but believe me it is packed with goodness.  Notice the way that as the EYE ratio increases, the batting averages consistently get higher (and vice versa).   Also notice that the percentage of player-seasons that fall into the high-end ranges (.300 and above) and the low-end ranges (.249 and below) is significantly smaller than the great unwashed mass of data in the middle.  This means that identifying the true peak performers and true duds is even more critical (but made easier through use of this data).

The data clearly shows that there is a correlation between batting eye and batting average.  The batters that have the highest averages over the last five seasons also have the best ratio of walks to strikeouts.  (It is important to note that a low EYE does NOT necessarily mean that a player cannot hit for a high AVG, or vice versa.  There are always outliers and anomalies, but what we are looking for is the best percentage play in most situations, and that is what this information gives us.)

How should you use this information?  Well, for one thing, you can use this to determine whether or not to add a free agent batter that is hitting .350 over the last month.  Look at his EYE ratio for his career.  Determine whether or not the EYE ratio supports the fact that he can really maintain a batting average above .300.  Also look for players with low batting averages, but high EYE ratios.  These guys can be hidden sources of good AVG.  We will look at some of these players as the season progresses, and make recommendations to you based on this, but for now the stat sample sizes are so small that they are borderline meaningless.

Here is some more information from the study that further supports the connection between EYE and AVG:   

--In general, the higher the ratio the better, with the very best hitters walking more than they strikeout (thus, an EYE ratio of 1.00+).  The player-seasons in the study that had an EYE ratio of 1.00 or better (which was 14% of them) had a mean AVG of .306.

--Of all the player-seasons with an AVG better than .300, 52% of them had an EYE of .75 or greater.  Of those same player-seasons, only 18% had an EYE less than .50.  In other words, the odds of a batter remaining a .300 hitter over time while possessing an EYE ratio under .50 are very slim.

  The chart above starts with the premise that players with certain AVGs tend to have a certain level of EYE.  Today we look at it from the other perspective.  We look at players with certain EYE ratios, and what AVGs they produce.  More importantly, though, we look at what percentages of players produce the AVGs.  This underscores the fact that while there may be outliers, and there always will be, the odds of players with low EYE ratios maintaining high AVGs are low.

Read the data from left to right for a particular EYE range.  This will give you a clear idea of what batting averages players in that EYE range produce.  Here are some of the more telling pieces of information in the chart.

--Among players with an EYE of greater than 1.00, 59% of them hit .300 or better.  Only 14% of these players hit below .275, and just 2% hit below .250.  This is pretty strong evidence that a good batting eye correlates with a good batting average

--Similarly, among players with an EYE ratio greater than 0.75 and up to 1.00, a full 65% of them hit better than .275.

--Players with an EYE ratio below 0.50 clearly are not likely to be .300 hitters.  Just 16% of them hit .300 or above, while 59% of them hit below .275.  Be very suspicious of the guy batting .330 with a 0.35 EYE.  It isn’t likely to last.

Remember also that although we are talking specifically about batting average here, which is just one statistic, this information applies to good hitters in general.  Players with good AVG get more hits, they drive in more runs, they score more runs, and they are generally in the offensive mix.  Try to make your player decisions based on the data above, as opposed to a player’s AVG over a month of the season.  Also look at their career EYE ratio.  Increases and decreases in EYE from year to year are common.  Many players improves their EYE over the courses of their careers, but huge swings in one direction or the other are not as common, and should be viewed suspiciously.