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Forecating Tools: Runners Stranded Percentage (RS%)

March 4, 2007 | article by Anthony A. Perri in Research (38)

Runners Stranded Percentage (RS%)

Runners Stranded Percentage: Measures the percentage of batters that reach base but do not score (more specifically, are not credited to a pitcher's Earned Runs). The average stranded percentage for starters is .71. Pitchers with Stranded Percentages of about .75 usually have successful ERA and Win totals. Typically, veteran pitchers work around good hitters and bear down on the hitters whom they believe they can retire. A perfect example would be Roger Clemens. Clemens' Stranded Percentage has averaged .80 over the last 3 years. Pitchers who show a considerable rise in Strand Percentage (RS%) over their previous seasons should show a comparable rise in Strikeout Percentage. If this is not the case then there is a good chance that the pitcher benefited from chance. Using this tool we can identify many of the overachievers who may have recorded lower than deserved ERA, WHIP, and Win totals.

Below are the top 30 starting pitchers who recorded a Runners Stranded Percentage which was above .74 in 2006

	Runners Stranded %			K/ Inning Ratio
Player	2006	3YR AVG	Delta	2006	3YR AVG	Delta
Weaver,Jr.	0.82	N/A		0.85	N/A
Clemens,R.	0.80	0.78	0.02	0.90	0.93	-0.03
Maroth,M.	0.80	0.73	0.06	0.45	0.50	-0.05
Johnson,J.	0.79	N/A		0.85	N/A
Sanchez,A.	0.79	N/A		0.63	N/A
Billingsley,C.	0.78	N/A		0.66	N/A
Kazmir,S.	0.78	0.73	0.05	1.13	1.10	0.03
Williams,W.	0.78	0.72	0.05	0.52	0.63	-0.10
Arroyo, B.	0.78	0.71	0.07	0.77	0.68	0.08
Oswalt,R.	0.77	0.76	0.01	0.75	0.79	-0.04
Santana,J.	0.77	0.76	0.01	1.05	1.08	-0.03
Shields,S.	0.77	0.76	0.01	0.96	1.02	-0.06
Young,C.	0.77	0.71	0.05	0.92	0.83	0.09
Zito, B.	0.76	0.73	0.04	0.68	0.73	-0.05
Zambrano,C.	0.76	0.77	0.00	0.98	0.93	0.05
Verlander,J.	0.76	0.67	0.09	0.67	0.64	0.02
Tejeda,R.	0.76	0.75	0.01	0.56	0.70	-0.14
Maine,J.	0.76	0.69	0.07	0.79	0.55	0.24
Webb,B.	0.76	0.76	0.00	0.75	0.76	-0.01
Robertson,N.	0.75	0.72	0.04	0.66	0.69	-0.03
Sabathia, C.	0.75	0.72	0.03	0.89	0.82	0.08
Myers,B.	0.75	0.72	0.03	0.95	0.86	0.09
Lilly,T.	0.75	0.72	0.03	0.88	0.83	0.05
Carpenter,C.	0.75	0.75	0.00	0.83	0.85	-0.02
Willis,D.	0.74	0.75	0.00	0.72	0.71	0.00
Glavine,T.	0.74	0.74	0.00	0.66	0.56	0.10
Schmidt,J.	0.74	0.72	0.02	0.84	0.97	-0.13
Suppan,J.	0.74	0.75	-0.01	0.55	0.57	-0.03
Harang,A.	0.74	0.72	0.02	0.92	0.82	0.10

The pitchers we're going to identify as prime candidates to post production decreases in 2007 have been selected based on a Runners Stranded % which is greater than 5 percent in comparison to their 3 year history (if present) while also not showing a commensurate Strike-out ratio. Additionally any 1st year players who posted a Runners Stranded % greater that .78, without a K/Inning ratio above .90 are at risk not to repeat their production.

Those starting pitchers who have met my criteria and we're projecting a downturn in their production per game are: Jered Weaver, Mike Maroth, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Chad Billingsley, Woody Williams, Bronson Arroyo, Justin Verlander, and John Maine. I am projecting (in our 2007 player projections), that each of these pitchers will post an ERA which is significantly greater than what they posted in 2006. Additionally some will likely see a rise in their WHIP and fall in their Win totals in 2007.

This is not to say that certain players are not projected to exceed their overall production from 2006. For instance, we're very excited about Jered Weaver. However we don't believe that he'll post the same quality output per game as he did in 2006. Based on my research, his 2006 production (1.03 WHIP and 2.56 ERA) is not sustainable based on his other indicators (Runners Stranded Percentage included) . Overall he'll win more games and have more K's in 2007, but that is a direct result of more appearances (Games Started).

For historical reference, last year in this exercise we identified 10 pitchers who were above their mean in Runners Stranded % from the previous year and projected a drop in production for: Zach Duke, Jorge Sosa, Roger Clemens, Kevin Millwood, Andy Pettitte, Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Suppan, Roy Halladay, Shawn Chacon, and Chris Capuano. Looking back, we were perfect in identifying the pitchers who would not live up to their previous season output. Obviously there is validity in using this indicator.

Runners Stranded Percentage can be found in our Player Production Charts and is built into the 2007 pitcher forecasts. Fantistics Subscribers can also view the outliers during the season within our premium subscriber Player Charts database.

Tomorrow we'll touch on the Pitchers with Stranded Percentages below .68 and who among the group we expect to excel in 2007.

See you then,
Anthony A. Perri
Publisher & Statistician
Fantistics Fantasy Sports