Devil Rays Closer: It is no shock that alleged closer Seth McClung has struggled this spring with 7 ER in 4 innings. With a 2006 BB/9 of 5.9, his skills are not even major-league worthy. If the Rays break spring breaking with McClung as the closer, no matter how desperate you are for saves, avoid him. Let him wreck someone else's WHIP and ERA. An interesting name has been thrown into the mix, Al Reyes. There is clearly an injury risk, as he has had two Tommy John surgeries and missed all of last season. But there are also some skills, 2005 K/9 of 9.6 and BB/9 of 2.9, that suggest he could succeed in the role. A small bid at the end of your draft could reap some big rewards.
Giants Closer: It looks like Armando Benitez will start the season as the closer. But with his injury history and last year's line of a 7.3 K/9 and a 5.0 BB/9, he probably won't be there for long. It may be a good idea to stash Brian Wilson on reserve. The 25-year old Wilson put up some sold numbers in Triple-A last year, 2.89 ERA and 9.6 K/9. A high BB/9 of 4.5 carried over to the big leagues where he struggled with a 5.40 ERA and a 6.3 BB/9. He will have to get his control in check before he gets a shot at closing.
Scott Thorman/Craig Wilson: The battle for the first base job could up in a platoon, which would hurt both of their fantasy values. Wilson has legitimate power, but a very poor contact rate and low batting eye will keep his batting average low. Also he is on the wrong side of the platoon. He would need to find some AB in the outfield to have value in NL-only leagues. The 25-year-old Thorman is more of an unknown. He has displayed some growing power skills and a respectable batting eye on his way up the chain, but has yet to do much of anything at the top level. The 2007 projection of 17/62/.260 is pretty much what you got when Adam Laroche was developing. That really makes one wonder why they traded an improving Laroche as he is entering his prime years for a good, but not great, relief pitcher.
Chipper Jones: What else is new? Chipper has sat out the last three days, this time with a sore right oblique. His strong second-half of 18/48/.375 in just 168 AB, suggests that there is still something left in the tank. You have to ask yourself, is it worth it for the games missed here and there and the likelihood of at least one trip to the DL during the season?
Gustavo Chacin: Chacin, who is slated to be the Blue Jays number three starter, was arrested for DUI last Friday. With a 2006 K/9 of 4.9, BB/9 of 3.9, and an ERA 5.06, plus coming back from an elbow injury, he should have already been off of your fantasy radar.
Mike Hampton: Hampton, who is nursing a strained left oblique, played catch on Saturday, about two weeks ahead of schedule. He is still expected to miss the first month of the season. Is he worth a bid to stash on your reserve? There is an obvious health risk, as he missed all of 2006 after having Tommy John surgery in September of 2005. When Hampton was at his best he relied on inducing ground balls and having K/9's in the 5.5 to 6.5 range. With the tendency to allow his BB/9 to cross over the 3.0 mark, the margin for error was always thin. But with 2003/2004/2005 K/9's of 5.2/4.5/3.5 that risk is elevated to the point where he should be avoided.
Mark Grudzielanek: Grudzielanek had knee surgery on March 5th to repair a torn mensicus. He hopes to return by opening day, but manager Buddy Bell is preparing as if he will not be there. At this point, the 36-year-old has no speed or power. The only thing he can offer would be an empty batting average. With a pedestrian batting eye, .41 last year, he will need to maintain a high contact rate just to do that. As he gets older, that will be tougher to do. For fantasy purposes the Royals would be better off playing Esteban German.
Esteban German: With regular playing time, German could pleasantly surprise. He boasts a nice skill set, 2006 numbers of a .326 batting average and batting eye of .82. While there is not much power in his arsenal, there is speed. He didn't run that much last year, in 106 games he swiped 7 bags in 10 tries. But he did hit 5 triples and has put up big SB numbers in the minors. Regular playing time would probably make him more comfortable on the basepaths, which could lead to high SB totals. Keep an eye on how the playing time shakes out in Kansas City.
Brad Hawpe: Hawpe is tearing it up this spring, going 13 for 37 with 4 home runs and 5 doubles. A comparison of Hawpe's 2005 and 2006 numbers, show the increase in home runs fully supported by gains in his G/L/F, 2005 of 52/17/32 and 2006 of 42/22/36. He hit the ball harder and further without any damage to his contact rate or batting eye. Add in that he is at the magic age of 27 and we could be looking at a major power breakout, especially if he solves left-handed pitching.
Wilson Betemit: Betemit is another one who showed some nice growth in the power department last year. Like Hawpe, it was fully supported by growth in his G/L/F ratio, 2005 of 48/25/27 and 2006 of 42/21/37. A low contact rate of 73% and batting eye of .35, mean that for now a .263 batting average is probably as get as it will get. After a slow start this spring, a recent hot streak should be put to rest any doubts of him losing the third base job. Though it seems like he has been a prospect forever, he is still only 25-years-old. This is a good time to invest.
Joel Pineiro: Still is a contender for the Red Sox closer role. His 2006 starter/reliever splits, K/9 of 4.3/7.4 and BB/9 of 3.4/3.7, suggest that he is better suited for relief. But even the better numbers in relief are not the ones of a successful closer. Let someone else overpay for his mediocre skills.
Erik Bedard: Manager Sam Perlazzo finally named Bedard the opening day starter. His 2006 splits, ERA: 4.73/2.85, K/9: 7.1/8.6, and BB/9: 3.4/2.9, and the year-to-year improvement in GB%, 2005 of 40% to 2006 49%, suggest the Mazzone magic is at work. If he maintains those gains, the 2007 projection of 16-10 and a 3.61 could be on the low side of his potential range.
