Lets start here ... there isn't too much about baseball I don't love.
Baseball is the drama and angst of a great television series like 24, but it's on every day for, perhaps fittingly in this analogy, 24 hours a day. There's never a re-run, and nobody, not even the "actors" and "producers", know the end until we all see it ... together.
Baseball has also been compared to a novel and those comparisons are equally valid. You live with the story line for over 6 months, turning a page or two every day to reveal the epic story ... but that's only the beginning. The epic story of this upcoming season is but a part of an even more epic story, a story that makes "Long ago in a galaxy far, far away" seem like a brochure.
Baseball is actually a series of novels and the characters aren't the players. The characters are the teams and the game itself. The players change. Years come and go. Careers wane ... and careers wax. I love most everything about baseball, but I particularly like to watch the waxing of careers.
I own Albert Pujols now because I saw him in Single-A and was totally smitten. I claimed him hours after I first saw him play. His career is an incredible source of satisfaction for me because I watched him grow into the player he is and the player he is allows me to fantasize that I am a genius for seeing it so early. I love that. The same is true now of Jason Bay, Brian McCann, Francisco Liriano, David Wright (I kept watching David and the image of Howard Johnson kept dancing in my head) and hopefully come August I will be feeling the same about Chris Young..
There's is nothing better than spending time in a minor league park, minutes from the B&M Baked Beans factory in Portland Maine, or the Brew House in Lowell, Massachusetts, or the Rusty Scupper in Providence, Rhode Island or Beef O'Brady's in Round Rock, Texas and unwrapping the gifts the game gives us in the young players in the minors.
There's also a lot of fun in watching the number tick off next to the names of kids you've never seen play, playing in places in which you have to wonder if there's even a McDonalds, and trying to figure out from their career's bearing and speed, where, when, and even if their path will intersect with The Show. Â
Some of those players are about to make their entrances on the big stage. We are about to crack the novel that is the 2007 MLB season and there will be new characters in the story line.
We will deal with a lot of kids as we go forward this summer, but let's start with the prospects seemingly ready to take on significant roles this year. Here are some of the kids who should have some impact in both your league and MLB this year ... in no particular order...
(please note that 2007 projections for these prospects can be found on our site and in our Draft Advisory Software)
Chris Young, Diamondbacks
An engine needs fuel, spark and compression to run. Those are the basics of a combustion engine. The basics of a viable current-year fantasy prospect are skills, experience, and opportunity. Chris Young boast all three. The D-Backs boast a pretty good crop of young OFs and Chris Young will open the parade this year and open up Arizona's lineup from the lead off position. The common comparison is Mike Cameron and it's a good one. We hope that Chris is an even better hitter. He's my type of prospect and the comparison that comes to my mind is a poor man's Jason Bay with more speed. To continue the comparisons his prognosis falls somewhere between Torii Hunter (and he's as good defensively) and Vernon Wells. He's a 20/20 capable player now with 30/30 potential. The hole in his game is strikeouts but he made good progress in that area in the minors last year (71 K in 446 AAA ABs after 129 in 466 AA ABs in 2005) and he whiffed just a dozen times in 70 MLB ABs. He is expected to hold down the CF job and lead off slot for Arizona this year. That will suppress his Rbi and HR totals while he concentrates on contact and pitch selection, but it will maximize his SBs. Rookies of course are wild cards and that needs to be noted here. I own Chris so I chose to be optimistic while playing the comparison game. It's just as possible, for no understandable (or more importantly, predictable) reason that this September I could be comparing his rookie season to another guy that I owned, Jeremy Hermida.
Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Rays
Until Alex Gordon came along Delmon Young had a pretty good reign as baseball's top offensive prospect. The time has come for him to make good on the promise. He will start in RF for the Rays and bat third behind Carl Crawford. Delmon is another speed and power guy going 20/20 in AA Montgomery in 2005. His 2006 minor league season in AAA Durham (.276, 8, 59, 22 SBs in 342 ABs) was a disappointment from a power/Rbi standpoint and that carried over to his tour with Tampa in which he managed just 3 HRs and 10 Rbi in 126 MLB ABs (11/69 in 468 total 2006 ABs). Even more disappointing was his 24 whiffs against a single walk in that span. That's been an issue in the minors (131 Ks and 40 walks in 672 ML ABs over the last two years) and it will be a major issue in majors if he can't improve. He does make contact however, hitting .315 in AA in 2005, .276 in AAA last year and .317 in the majors. Delmon will be asked to drive in runs for the Rays and as a result his SB capability may be put on the back burner. Given the doubts about his potential HR/Rbi production for 2007 that could be a huge factor. His ability to lay wood has been his saving grace in the minors but he hasn't shown a ton of plate discipline to this point and the big leagues are a tough place to learn. Delmon has a sizeable upside and will likely be the rookie most sought after in your draft. Keep in mind however he's not a sure thing and that's especially true in the context of 2007.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
See my starting pitching piece for a complete breakdown of Daisuke but like many of the "rookies" here you'll need to balance what they are likely to do in 2007 while they get their sea legs against what their long term potential is. In Matsuzaka's case the hype surrounding him will probably make him costly enough that you will not get what you pay for this summer. In keeper leagues however you will get that investment back. He is likely to have a season that will be "disappointing" when compared to what we have heard he's capable of, but Matsuzaka will eventually be a top-half-of-the-rotation starter for the next 5 years and he has ace potential. In single-season leagues you'll have to show some restraint until he fall to the price range of a 13-win, 4.00 starter. If you pay for more you will be taking on significant risk.
Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
Everyone loves to play the name game when it comes to comparing prospects to players we know. I find myself doing this a lot and when the subject of Kouzmanoff comes up I think of Kevin Youkilis. I say that because I think Kevin falls into the same probably-not-really-enough-power- for-a-corner-slot category. Of course 3B is a thin position so something approaching 18/75 won't be too far behind the curve. Kevin can make contact. The 25-year-old hit .353 in 102 AB in AAA Buffalo last year while in the Indian's system and .389 in AAA Akron in 244 ABs. He struggled in his 56 MLB ABs, hitting just .214 but smacked 3 HRs and drove in 12.He has terrific contact skills and solid plate discipline. I just wonder if he'll produce enough power especially at Petco. His other issue is defense and that's what got him out of Cleveland. In the NL he'll have to field his position which is worrisome. The good news is that his chief competition is Russ Branyan who will never be confused with Brooks Robinson either. He starts the season qualifying for UT only and he may not play third well enough to stay out of left field in the long run, but he's a decent hitter who should have 4 ABs most days.
See the rest of the 2007 Rookie Review in the Draft Tool Section within the member area. (Not a member? Join Today!)
Todd Treadway
Mar 13, 07 at 08:45 AM
I tend to agree with George. What is your basis for consider 3B to be thin this year. I see it as being the deepest with talent falling in many auctions for a deep discount.
LB
Mar 13, 07 at 08:45 AM
Perhaps I could have been clearer in that regard, guys. My point was that once you consider the number of third basemen who are perennially frozen in all but the shallowest leagues, there simply isn't as much available at third base as there is in the other power positions.
Our user surveys suggest that leagues that draft completely every year are in the minority among our subscribers. I tend to look at the draft season working on the assumption that A-Rod, David Wright, and the like aren't available to the vast majority of you. I was commenting based on what most of you will be facing in your drafts (and perhaps not being clear enough about it).
In addition there are barely enough quality 3Bs, even working with the entire pool to supply every team in most leagues with a competitive starter at third, and that's if you are comfortable competing with Mark Teahen as your 3B while someone else in your league starts David Wright. Some teams will lose considerable ground at 3B out of the gate. They will lose more ground than the teams that end up with the weaker first basemen in most cases. Consider also that third baseman will be needed to fill starting CI slots in a lot of instances in a lot of leagues.
To me, not enough quality 3Bs to competitively fill all the needed starting slots in a given league means you have to pay attention to the depth of the position. To me, if missing out at 3B will cost you more than missing out at 1B or in the OF (these are the power positions, MI and catcher are a whole different set of values) you have to consider it "shallow" in relation to those other positions (as opposed to in relation to "other years" which isn't really relevant on draft day).
Insiderbaseball.com's Draft Advisor Software, which is included with a subscription to Insiderbaseball.com has a number of incredible useful features but if you check out the grouping of players in "tiers" of quality you'll see quite clearly that among the power positions, the quality drop off at third base is the steepest, especially once you eliminate the players who will not be available in leagues with keepers and who will not be available in the part of the draft where you need to get value for your $$$.
Perhaps I was assuming a lot of "given" principles in that comment that I shouldn't have considered given. Sorry to rile anyone up!
LB