The Masters of Inconsistency (Player Projections at Risk)

Last week we introduced Consistency Factor and it's implications to both Head to Head leagues as well as all Fantasy leagues regardless of their scoring setup.

Consistency Factor gives us an indication of a batter's quality games or quality weekly output. The premise: established players who do not produce quality output on a consistent basis are a risk to achieve similar production in the future.  Essentially we want players who produce consistently rather than in sporadic episodes. The reasoning is a derivative of the laws of probability, consistency is paramount to lowering our risk...the more observations the better.

Below is a list of the worst hitters in terms of weekly consistency in 2006 (based on 375 ABs). The column below, Weekly 2006, is a recording of each player's 2006 quality weeks (out of a max possible 26 weekly observations).  Also included is their 3 year average consistency percentage (2-3 Yr %) which is adjusted for playing time factors.

Weekly Consistency Factor -  Worst of 2006
	Player Name	Tm	AB	Weekly 2006	%	2-3 Yr %
1	Adam Everett	Hou	514	4	16.0	33.8
2	Craig Biggio	Hou	548	4	16.6	34.2
3	Brad Ausmus	Hou	439	4	17.3	23.3
4	Angel Berroa	KC	474	4	18.2	27.9
5	Clint Barmes	Col	478	4	18.3	35.1
6	Yadier Molina	StL	417	4	18.6	36.1
7	Jose Lopez	Sea	603	5	19.9	19.1
8	Ronny Cedeno	ChC	534	5	19.9	32.6
9	David Bell	Phi	504	5	20.7	37.1
10	Joey Gathright	TB	383	5	22.4	35.5
11	Jorge Cantu	TB	413	4	22.4	36.6
12	Yuniesky Betancourt	Sea	558	6	22.9	20.2
13	Khalil Greene	SD	412	5	24.8	34.4
14	Jason Kendall	Oak	552	6	25.2	32.6
15	Pedro Feliz	SF	603	7	26.3	33.9
16	Royce Clayton	Was	454	6	26.3	27.8
17	Juan Uribe	CWS	463	6	27.3	43.9
18	Placido Polanco	Det	461	5	27.3	44.5
19	Randy Winn	SF	573	7	28.2	36.1
20	Geoff Jenkins	Mil	484	7	28.6	38.7
21	Jeff Conine	Bal	489	7	29.6	48.4
22	Marcus Giles	Atl	550	7	29.8	49.0
23	Brady Clark	Mil	415	7	30.4	40.1
24	Jose Bautista	Pit	400	6	30.8	29.4
25	Aaron Miles	StL	426	7	31.1	27.1
26	Shane Victorino	Phi	415	8	31.4	36.0
27	Jhonny Peralta	Cle	569	8	32.2	44.1
28	Jose Castillo	Pit	518	8	32.4	34.6
29	Ronny Paulino	Pit	442	7	32.6	38.3
30	Nick Markakis	Bal	491	8	32.7	34.1
31	Kevin Mench	Tex	446	7	33.1	38.7
32	Cory Sullivan	Col	386	7	33.3	44.8
33	Jack Wilson	Pit	543	8	33.8	34.2
34	Mark Ellis	Oak	441	7	33.9	48.1
35	Brandon Inge	Det	542	9	34.0	37.5
36	Shea Hillenbrand	Tor	530	8	34.0	43.8
37	David Eckstein	StL	500	7	34.1	34.0
38	Ryan Zimmerman	Was	614	9	34.4	42.5
39	Adam Kennedy	LAA	451	8	34.5	48.5
40	Steve Finley	SF	426	8	34.5	34.8
41	Mark Loretta	Bos	635	9	34.8	48.3
42	Omar Vizquel	SF	579	9	35.3	38.6
43	Juan Encarnacion	StL	557	9	35.3	34.9
44	Jonny Gomes	TB	385	7	35.9	53.1
45	Josh Barfield	SD	539	9	36.0	37.6
46	Jacque Jones	ChC	533	9	36.2	42.4
47	Aubrey Huff	TB	454	8	36.6	42.4
48	Ronnie Belliard	Cle	544	9	36.7	43.6
49	Trot Nixon	Bos	381	7	36.8	43.7
50	Melky Cabrera	NYY	460	8	36.9	36.9

As you can see, almost all of 2006's inconsistent players have a history of inconsistency (2-3 yr %). This reinforces one of the tenets of the original premise I posted last week: Inconsistent players usually stay  inconsistent on a yearly basis. Thus these players are at risk to post consistent yearly results.

We know what to expect from Adam Everett on a year to year basis: basically lack luster fantasy output. However there are players such as Omar Vizquel, Aubry Huff, Jacques Jones, Kevin Mench, Marcus Giles, Geoff Jenkins, Randy Winn, and Juan Uribe, who have posted solid fantasy production at different points in their careers. Expecting them to repeat these results in two consecutive seasons is the risk that we seek to avoid, especially on draft day.

The reason I mention "two consecutive seasons": Fantasy GMs, for the most part have a "what have you done for me lately" methodology on Draft Day. Thus you do not want to be paying for the 2006 success especially when it's coming from a player whose production is sporadic.

Here's a short list of 7 players who had a career or semi career season in 2006 and also have a poor 3 year record of consistency: Brandon Inge, Orlando Cabrera, Mark DeRosa, Yadier Molina, Pedro Feliz, AJ Pierzynski, Mike Lowell.

As I mentioned in the original article on Consistency Factor  both  injury and playing time risks are an additional factor to consider when evaluating players. As you thumb through the Consistency Factor indicator  on the Player Pages within the software, you'll get a better feel on which players are a safer play for you on draft day.

I do want to point out that rookie players should be given leeway, as they are just getting their feet wet and do have the potential to become consistent hitters. In the next segment of this series, we'll cover the youth movement (specifically those who have shown to be remarkably consistent early on.) A factor that bodes remarkably well for those looking to find un-touted value come draft day.

Have a great week,

Anthony A. Perri

Statistician and Publisher -Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com