Young Stud Pitchers: Off and Running

Sure preseason box scores can be deceiving, especially when we're taking about veteran pitchers or others who are coming into camp with a secure rotation spot. However when we're dealing with young pitchers vying for a starting job, these spring outings have plenty of meaning.

Here's a listing of the pitchers who have been hot this spring (through Monday):

Cleveland's Adam Miller, not be be confused with Detroit's Andrew Miller, is less than  a year away from beginning his promising major league career. After a rather slow minor league start which was complicated by arm troubles in 2005, Miller dominated in AA last year with a 9.2 K/9, 1.12 WHIP, and 2.75 ERA. At only 22, with a 96 MPH fastball, Miller is expected to be the Indians ace in the near future...possibly by the all star break. Adam ranks as the 4th best pitcher in our 2007 Prospect Ranking.

The Cardinals Anthony Reyes is having a strong spring. With his 6 innings last night, Reyes has pitched 15 innings this spring only allowing 6 hits and 1 run. All of which looks more reminiscent of the stud prospect we expected to see in the second half of 2006. During his 3+ year tenure in the minors, Reyes posted a 9.9 K/9 and a 1.06 WHIP. We're expecting a nice turnaround from Reyes in our projections. Reyes is the 4th starter in the Cards rotation.

The Mets John Maine was never considered much of a prospect after a mediocre NCAA career. His best colligate season came in 2001 when he posted a 3.83 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Things really kicked up for Maine in the Sally leagues, but his inconsistency from year to year, led him to a 5 year minor league stay (and trade from Baltimore to the Mets). Maine is not as good as he appeared with the Mets last year (1.13 WHIP), the intrinsics of our player charts indicate that his BHIP (Opposition Balls Hit into Play Success Rate) in 2006 was 68 points lower (.220) than the MLB average. Very few pitchers have control over balls hit into play, thus a reversion to the mean may be in effect in 2007. However Maine is still a quality pitcher, and his value has been understated as indicated by our ADP (24th round - as indicated in our Player Projections software).

As most of you already know, 2006 Post Season hero Adam Wainwright is moving into the Cardinals starting lineup. For those who believe that Wainwright will struggle moving from a relief role to a starters role...think again. Wainwright has pitched over 149 innings 4 times during his minor league career, and was a top prospect prior to his 2006 season as a starting pitcher. Logistically his 1.15 WHIP in 2006, will probably translate into the 1.30 range as a full time starter....if healthy we're possibly looking at a 15 game winner. Wainwright has the 4th slot in the rotation locked up.

Boston's uber closer from 2006, Jonathan Papelbon, is also moving from the bullpen into the starting rotation this year. Similar to Wainwright (see above), Papelbon came up as a starter, and was also one of the top prospects in baseball before his callup in 2006. Consider that Papelbon finished his minor league career with a 19-13 W/L, 3.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 9.7 K/9 ratio.  Papelbon has never been overtaxed throughout his career (both Innings and pitches thrown), which is a huge benefit. ADP shows Papelbon moving in the 8th round, which is later than we're suggesting in our draft software (based on a 5x5, your league settings and results may vary) Papelbon has the 4th slot in the rotation locked up.

Adam Loewen - as we wrote in a prior edition of Prospect Central, The fourth overall pick in the 2002 out of a Canadian high school, Adam Loewen's pro career has been more about potential than actual results thus far.  Loewen has great stuff, throws hard (especially for a lefty), and racks up tons of strikeouts, but so far at least he's had a lot of trouble throwing strikes.  After an impressive stint in short-season ball in 2003, Loewen posted a 4.11 ERA and unimpressive 82-to-58 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 85.1 innings at low Single-A in 2004 and then went 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts at high Single-A (walking nine batters compared to just three strikeouts in the process). He spent all of 2005 back at high Single-A and certainly wasn't bad, but once again posted a concerning 86 walks to go along with a very solid 146 strikeouts in 142 innings of work.  He allowed just 130 hits-including only eight long balls-but because of the command problems Loewen's ERA was a modest 4.12.  Loewen ended 2006 with a 1.54 WHIP and 5.38 ERA. Look for a turnaround this season into the 1.35 / 4.10 WHIP/ ERA range. With his strong performance this spring, Loewen has the 5th spot in the rotation locked up.

Boof Bonser's minor league career translates to a middle to back end of the rotation type pitcher. A lack of control (walks about 1 every 3 innings) and mediocre H/9 ratio (9:9) will find Bonser in the upper end of the acceptable ERA bounds. Currently Bonser is the front runner for the Twins 5th rotation slot, although Matt Garza is ready and could be in for most of 2007. I look at Garza in the same light as 2006 sensation Francisco Liriano who was also bypassed last spring. I'm still trying to figure out what's the love affair with Sidney Ponson? Anyway pass on Bonser....

Carlos Villanueva belongs in a starting rotation. In 2006 he posted a 1.02 WHIP and decent 3.74 ERA in 50+ innings of work. Yet heading into the 4th week of spring training, unless there's an injury, Villanueva will not be part of the starting rotation out of camp. Villanueva has had a long (5 years) yet solid minor league career: posting a 35-24 record with a 3.25 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9 ratio. Despite playing for a team that has struggled for what seems to be an eternity, the Brewers have a very solid staff heading into the season this year....Villanueva is an lick away from becoming a useful fantasy starter.

Although he's still in contention for the Yankees 5th roation slot, I'm not sold on Jeff Karstens.  His minor league 1.29 WHIP, 3.69 ERA, and 7.4 K/9 ratios look rather ordinary at from a statistical standpoint. Jeff is more of a finesse type pitcher, who could develop into a middle of the rotation type. However at this point I don't see value from him in any fantasy format.