Hello everybody.  As I watched in horror at another craptacular performance from the Phillies bullpen, an idea rattled around in my head.  Part of the problem we have as fantasy analysts is that we are in some situations constrained by the statistics we use.  In many cases (obviously) statistics do not tell the full picture.  The biggest example of this in the fantasy baseball world might be the fact that the great majority of leagues care only about pitching and hitting, but not defense.  This can present a problem for fantasy analysis through statistics because we can't quantify the fact that a player is great defensively and as such may get more at-bats than they would normally get if those decisions were based solely on offensive production.  The manager of the team and coaches know this, but you can't get that level of information by looking at the hitting and pitching stats we are used to.

 

Since I'm thinking primarily about relief pitchers here, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to examine the concept of Inherited Runners Scored (IRS).  Continuing with the line of thought from the opening paragraph...how many times have you seen a reliever with a sparkling ERA, only they ALWAYS seem to come into a game and give up runs?  The thing is, those earned runs scored by inherited runners are charged to the pitcher who caused them to be on the bases, as opposed to the guy who let them score.  I'm not suggesting it should be otherwise, but I AM suggesting that we might be able to gain some insight by looking at which relievers allow a lot of those inherited runners to score.  After all, the relief pitcher has a very specific job description, and part of that description is coming into the game in pressure situations and preventing runners from scoring.

 

My theory is that by adding Inherited Runners Scored to the ERA calculation for relief pitchers, we can gain a fuller picture of relievers' overall effectiveness.  This will not replace other important statistical measures like K/9, K/BB, or others, but I think it can be a useful way of looking at the data.  If I'm a major league manager, and one of my relievers allows a high percentage of inherited runners to score...I don't give a darn if that guy has a 1.25 ERA.  His playing time could be in jeopardy, and he's probably going to be used less in key situations.  So, couldn't the same be true for a fantasy team? 

 

Please note, the intent of the statistics today is not to suggest that reliever's ERA can be predicted by adding Inherited Runners Scored, but rather to provide a little more insight into their overall effectiveness as a reliever, which in turn could lead to increases or decreases in playing time.  Consider it just something else to think about when evaluating a relief pitcher.

 

In terms of the data population, I thought that 3-year averages would be a good place to start.  I took all relievers who averaged at least 35 IP over the last three seasons OR averaged at least 10 save opportunities over the last three seasons.  I then simply calculated the qualifying player's ERAs with Inherited Runners Scored added to the equation (ER + IRS)*9/IP.  I then measured the difference between a reliever's actual ERA and their adjusted Reliever ERA (R-ERA) in terms of a percentage.

 

Below are the 20 relievers who had the biggest percentage increase in their ERAs when Inherited Runners Scored were added to the mix.

 

 

Among the notables on the list above are a couple of setup men widely considered capable of closing, such as Joel Zumaya and Mike Gonzalez.  Also making the list are a couple of current closers, Chris Ray and Dan Wheeler.  This doesn't necessarily mean you should jump ship on these guys, but be aware of the facts.  At the top of the list is a guy that has been speculated as a possible closer for Florida, Taylor Tankersley.  If you add IRS to his ERA calculation, his ERA doubles.

 

Since the first table included all relievers who qualified, I thought it might also be beneficial to look at a population of players that includes primary closers (or those who have been primary closers at some point over the last three seasons).  Below are the 10 relievers who averaged 15 save opportunities or more (in addition to meeting the 35 IP criteria) and had the biggest percentage increase in their ERAs when Inherited Runners Scored were added to the mix.

 

 

Notice the difference in the ranges of %DIFF in this list compared to the first one.  They are much lower (except for Chris Ray, who appears on both lists).  This makes sense, as you would expect that pitchers who (by virtue of averaging more than 15 save opportunities over the last three seasons) were actual closers would allow the fewest inherited runners to score.  After all, that is a key component of the closer role.   

 

Finally, here are the 10 relievers (who met the same criteria as the previous list) who had the LEAST difference in their actual ERA and their R-ERA (meaning, they allowed the fewest inherited runners to score).

 

 

As we would expect, some of the best of the best are listed here, including: Eric Gagne (who is only limited by injury), Trevor Hoffman, Joe Nathan, and Billy Wagner.  These are the most solid relievers around.  Interesting to note that a few guys who are generally considered marginal closers make this list.  These are guys like Turnbow, Dempster, Julio, Wickman, and Reitsma.  This data says that despite what other issues they may have, they do a decent job at keeping inherited runners from scoring.