We talk about numbers all the time here ...

 

They are important to what we do. The key to this whole game we play is to determine which numbers more accurately indicate performance and which numbers more accurately predict future performance.

 

Numbers are the currency of the site and we throw them around quite freely. Everyone here is used to working with these numbers. They are familiar tools to us but to you they may just be numbers floating in free space.

 

I can tell you that Albert Pujols had a 1.84 BB/K ratio last year (what I often refer to as plate command), but does that mean much to you? Do you have an idea of how good or bad that might be? Without context, you may not ...

 

First it's good ... very good ... but to give you an idea how good I'll tell you that the MLB average is around 0.50 ... And anything above a 0.70 is considered good. So now you can figure out that Albert is God-like in BB/K, as he is in most offensive indicators. Anything below 0.50 is below average plate command and anything below say 0.30 or 0.25 is poor. Now when one of us quotes plate command to you or BB/K you will have a better idea what it means ... in context.

 

Let's go over some of our most popular indicators for hitters and pitchers and lay out the MLB average as well as what is generally considered good or poor. (I am not going to quote you last years MLB averages exactly; we are doing rough carpentry this time. I am going to estimate the average over the last 3 or 4 seasons and hopefully I can express them in thumbnails you can easily remember and relate to.) Consider this a field guide that will give you a frame of reference in the morning when we start flinging numbers around ...

 

Hitters

 

Batting Average

Pretty standard stuff here but in conjunction with K rate you can get an idea of a player's contact ability. Not a great indicator by the way ... At 500 ABs the difference between a .266 hitter and a .292 hitter is just one bleeder or bloop hit every two weeks. The difference between that .266 hitter and a .240 average is just two line drives right at a player, or being robbed of two hits by great defensive plays ... a month ....

 

MLB Average - Around .269

Good - .290 or above

Bad - .230 or below

OBP - On Base Percentage

The chic stat in MLB front offices, especially the one between The Cross Bronx Expressway and Moncton. You either make an out or get on base. This tells you the odds for a given player. This often is a factor in playing time (PT) between two comparable options for a manager.

 

MLB Average - Around .333

Good - .350 and above

Bad - .280 or below

 

SLG% - Slugging Percentage

An indication of a player's power. This will play a role in his ability to produce Rbi. It also plays into how many Rbi opps a player gets as it usually is a factor in his position in the batting order.

 

MLB Average - Around .430

Good - .480 and above

Bad - .350 and below

 

Walk Rate

You love to see players being selective enough to take walks. It speaks to comfort at the plate and ability to draw hitter's counts. The hitters counts are where hitter eat.

 

MLB Average - Around 0.09 BB/AB or roughly once every 10 ABs

Good - 0.12 and better or roughly once every 8 ABs or better

Bad - 0.05 and worse or roughly once every 20 AB or worse.

 

Strikeout Rate

You cut more slack here for sluggers but a strikeout is an unproductive out. The MLB average for balls hit in play is around .300 so the more often a player puts the ball in play ....

 

MLB Average - Around 0.19/AB or roughly once ever 5 ABs

Good - 0.15 or roughly once very 6.5 ABs or better

Bad - 0.25 or roughly every 4 ABs, or roughly once a game

 

BB/K Ratio or Plate Command

A surprisingly reliable indicator of how good a hitter is. As close to the silver bullet as there is. Combined with SLG% this presents a very good picture of the hitter.

 

MLB Average - Around 0.5 or half a many walks as strikeouts

Good - 0.67 or better or about two thirds as many BB as Ks

Bad - 0.33 or three times as many Ks as BB

 

Pitchers - Statistically this where the rubber meets the road

 

ERA

Again, a staple in player evaluation but this is less player dependant than you like. Poor defense doesn't always show up in errors, and bullpens can often tack a couple of runs onto your guy's ERA. In addition bad performances hurt this number more than good performances help it (this is especially true for relievers). For example if your guy pitches 2 complete game shutouts and gives up 7 runs in one inning in his third start, you have a 3.31 ERA. That doesn't exactly tell the story.

 

MLB Average - Right around 4.50 or half as many runs allowed as IP

Good - Really anything below 4.00 but lets say .3.75 or better

Bad - 5.00 or worse

Strikeout Rate (K/9)

I love K rate. I love dominant pitchers. The MLB batting average is .269. The MLB batting average on balls hit in play is .300 ... The difference? Strikeouts. That's why I love pitchers who strike out guys.

 

MLB Average - Around 6.6 or roughly two thirds as many Ks as IP

Good - 8K /9IP or better

Bad - Really, anything below 6/9 is troublesome but let's say 5.5/9

 

Walk Rate (BB/9)

There's no defense for walks, and the percentage of walks that score is both scary and painful. We don't like pitchers who walk hitters.

 

MLB Average - Around 3.3/9 or roughly one third as many walks as IP

Good - 2.5 or roughly one quarter as many walks as IP

Bad - I start to get hives at around 4/9 but lets' say 4.5/9

 

K/BB

This is an indication of how a pitcher influences the game both positively and negatively. The fact is when a pitcher allows the ball to be put in play he gives up control of the game. Generally speaking, pitchers are pretty much statistically interchangeable when they allow the ball to be put in play. This is where pitchers differentiate themselves ... for better or worse.

 

MLB Average - Around 2.0 or twice as many Ks as BB.

Good - About 2.5 or better

Bad - 1.5 or worse

 

HR Rate or HR/9

Homeruns kill. Safe, consistent, pitchers limit them, stay out of big innings, and protect the work of your better pitchers. Speaks to general flammability.

 

MLB Average - Around 1.1 or roughly one tenth as many HRs as IP

Good - 0.75 or lower

Bad - 1.5 or higher

 

Batting Average Against or OBA

Well, as we said about Batting Average for hitters, this is an overrated stat. Still, a starter who makes 35 starts could face 1,000 batters so the sample is a bit bigger, just not enough to make it significantly more relevant. It does however give you an idea of how well a pitcher keeps guys off balance. Take an opponent's OOPS and you have a better idea of how effective a pitcher is.

MLB Average - .269

Good - .245 or lower

Bad - .275 or higher

 

WHIP

Baserunners tend to score at a about a 30% rate. Therefore, it stands to reason that the less baserunners you allow...

 

Multiply a pitcher's WHIP by about 3 (3.1 actually) and you get an idea of what a pitchers ERA should be. It his WHIP times 3 is higher than his ERA than he has probably been lucky and that ERA is coming up. If his WHIP times three is less than his ERA that may mean he's pitched better than his ERA indicates (barring other issues like a high HR rate, low K rate, or high FB rate)

 

MLB Average - Around 1.40

Good - 1.20 or lower

Bad - 1.60 or better

 

Strand Percentage

One of our "luck"stats. Although a very few pitchers can/will consistently strand runners at a higher or lower rate, most allow 30% of their baserunners to score. If one is allowing a higher rate, he's probably being unlucky and a that should level out.

 

MLB Average - Around 71%

Good - 75% or better

Bad - 65% or lower