We talk about numbers all
the time here ...
They are important to what
we do. The key to this whole game we play is to determine which numbers more
accurately indicate performance and which numbers more accurately predict
future performance.
Numbers are the currency of
the site and we throw them around quite freely. Everyone here is used to
working with these numbers. They are familiar tools to us but to you they may
just be numbers floating in free space.
I can tell you that Albert
Pujols had a 1.84 BB/K ratio last year (what I often refer to as plate command),
but does that mean much to you? Do you have an idea of how good or bad that
might be? Without context, you may not ...
First it's good ... very good
... but to give you an idea how good I'll tell you that the MLB average is around
0.50 ... And anything above a 0.70 is considered good. So now you can
figure out that Albert is God-like in BB/K, as he is in most offensive
indicators. Anything below 0.50 is below
average plate command and anything below say 0.30 or 0.25 is poor. Now when one
of us quotes plate command to you or BB/K you will have a better idea what it
means ... in context.
Let's go over some of our most popular indicators for
hitters and pitchers and lay out the MLB average as well as what is generally
considered good or poor. (I am not going to quote you last years MLB averages
exactly; we are doing rough carpentry this time. I am going to estimate the
average over the last 3 or 4 seasons and hopefully I
can express them in thumbnails you can easily remember and relate to.) Consider
this a field guide that will give you a frame of reference in the morning when
we start flinging numbers around ...
Hitters
Batting Average
Pretty standard stuff here
but in conjunction with K rate you can get an idea of
a player's contact ability. Not a great indicator by the way ... At 500 ABs the
difference between a .266 hitter and a .292 hitter is just one bleeder or bloop hit every two weeks.
The difference between that .266 hitter and a .240 average is just two
line drives right at a player, or being robbed of two
hits by great defensive plays ... a month ....
MLB Average - Around .269
Good - .290 or above
Bad - .230 or below
OBP - On Base Percentage
The chic
stat in MLB front offices, especially the one between The Cross Bronx
Expressway and
MLB Average - Around .333
Good - .350 and above
Bad - .280 or below
SLG% - Slugging Percentage
An
indication of a player's power.
This will play a role in his ability to produce Rbi.
It also plays into how many Rbi opps
a player gets as it usually is a factor in his position in the batting order.
MLB Average - Around .430
Good - .480 and above
Bad - .350 and below
Walk Rate
You love to see players
being selective enough to take walks. It speaks to comfort at the plate and
ability to draw hitter's counts. The hitters counts
are where hitter eat.
MLB Average - Around 0.09
BB/AB or roughly once every 10 ABs
Good - 0.12 and better or
roughly once every 8 ABs or better
Bad - 0.05
and worse or roughly once every 20 AB or worse.
Strikeout Rate
You cut more
slack here for sluggers but a strikeout is an unproductive out. The MLB
average for balls hit in play is around .300 so the more often a player puts
the ball in play ....
MLB Average - Around 0.19/AB
or roughly once ever 5 ABs
Good - 0.15 or roughly once
very 6.5 ABs or better
Bad - 0.25 or roughly every
4 ABs, or roughly once a game
BB/K Ratio or Plate Command
A surprisingly reliable
indicator of how good a hitter is. As close to the silver bullet as there is.
Combined with SLG% this presents a very good picture of the hitter.
MLB Average - Around 0.5 or
half a many walks as strikeouts
Good - 0.67 or better or
about two thirds as many BB as Ks
Bad - 0.33 or three times as many Ks as BB
Pitchers - Statistically
this where the rubber meets the road
ERA
Again, a staple in player
evaluation but this is less player dependant than you like. Poor defense doesn't always show up in errors, and bullpens can often
tack a couple of runs onto your guy's ERA. In addition bad performances hurt
this number more than good performances help it (this is especially true for
relievers). For example if your guy pitches 2 complete game shutouts and gives
up 7 runs in one inning in his third start, you have a 3.31 ERA. That doesn't exactly tell the story.
MLB Average - Right around
4.50 or half as many runs allowed as IP
Good - Really
anything below 4.00 but lets say .3.75 or better
Bad - 5.00 or worse
Strikeout Rate (K/9)
I love K rate. I love
dominant pitchers. The MLB batting average is .269. The MLB batting average on
balls hit in play is .300 ... The difference? Strikeouts.
That's why I love pitchers who strike out guys.
MLB Average - Around 6.6 or
roughly two thirds as many Ks as IP
Good - 8K /9IP or better
Bad - Really, anything below
6/9 is troublesome but let's say 5.5/9
Walk Rate (BB/9)
There's no defense for walks, and the percentage of walks
that score is both scary and painful. We don't like
pitchers who walk hitters.
MLB Average - Around 3.3/9
or roughly one third as many walks as IP
Good - 2.5 or roughly one
quarter as many walks as IP
Bad - I start to get hives
at around 4/9 but lets' say 4.5/9
K/BB
This is an indication of how
a pitcher influences the game both positively and negatively. The fact is when
a pitcher allows the ball to be put in play he gives
up control of the game. Generally speaking, pitchers
are pretty much statistically interchangeable when they allow the ball to be
put in play. This is where pitchers differentiate themselves
... for better or worse.
MLB
Average - Around 2.0 or twice as many Ks as BB.
Good - About 2.5 or better
Bad - 1.5 or worse
HR Rate or HR/9
Homeruns kill. Safe,
consistent, pitchers limit them, stay out of big innings, and protect the work
of your better pitchers. Speaks to general flammability.
MLB Average - Around 1.1 or
roughly one tenth as many HRs as IP
Good - 0.75 or lower
Bad - 1.5 or higher
Batting Average Against or OBA
Well, as we said about
Batting Average for hitters, this is an overrated stat. Still, a starter who
makes 35 starts could face 1,000 batters so the sample is a bit bigger, just
not enough to make it significantly more relevant. It does however give you an
idea of how well a pitcher keeps guys off balance.
Take an opponent's OOPS and you have a better idea of how effective a pitcher
is.
MLB Average - .269
Good - .245 or lower
Bad - .275 or higher
WHIP
Baserunners tend to score at
a about a 30% rate. Therefore, it stands to reason that the less baserunners
you allow...
Multiply a pitcher's WHIP by
about 3 (3.1 actually) and you get an idea of what a pitchers ERA should be. It
his WHIP times 3 is higher than his ERA than he has probably been lucky and
that ERA is coming up. If his WHIP times three is less than his ERA that may
mean he's pitched better than his ERA indicates (barring other issues like a
high HR rate, low K rate, or high FB rate)
MLB Average - Around 1.40
Good - 1.20 or lower
Bad - 1.60 or better
One of our
"luck"stats. Although a very few
pitchers can/will consistently strand runners at a higher or lower rate, most
allow 30% of their baserunners to score. If one is allowing a higher rate, he's probably being unlucky and a that should level out.
MLB Average - Around 71%
Good - 75% or better
Bad - 65% or lower
