It's not as if we all need to wear name tags or anything, but there's a certain "getting to know you"atmosphere around most fantasy baseball teams this year. Of course, we know most of the names and the stat lines fairly well, but do we really know the players?
Your starter's scheduled outings are crucial games, especially in weekly head-to-head leagues. You need to dig for every edge you can get when deciding on your starters each week. You need to maximize the output of your starters. One way to do that is to do what good managers do put your players in a position succeed, or ...if you prefer ... avoid situations that are unfavorable.
Now if you own Johan Santana chances are that he's in your lineup most weeks regardless of matchup. But if you know enough about Johan you realize that if there is a time when he should be left out of the lineup - And I don't think there is, but if there is - it's in April (4.42 ERA over the previous three seasons) when he's scheduled to face the Blue Jays (1-3, 5.93, .312 OBA over the last three years) at the Rogers Centre (1-2, 5.00, .301 OBA).
Of course, other splits come into play which mitigate some of these unfavorable splits but still, this is good information to know.
Truth be told we aren't worried about the Santanas of the world. What we need are ways to deal with the tough decisions between two similar caliber starters in the back half of the rotation in any given week, with any given set of match ups.
The answer is in your new best friend, your starters' pitching splits.
Print out the splits of every starter on your roster. Hey, I love the computer as much as anyone and having the stats on your screen is good. However, nothing connects you to data quite as intimately as hard copies. You only have a few starters. Get to a printer and print out their splits, both their splits for the last three years and last season's splits.
Now, grab a yellow and green highlighting marker, pour yourself a cold one, and curl up in your favorite chair with your new starters. Get to know them. Mark the unfavorable splits in yellow and the more favorable splits in green. Write few notes in the margin about when each pitcher should take day off, based on the history of his splits, and when he is a must-start.
There are all kinds of starter profiles. Some starters show significant and consistent changes in performance based on situations they are facing.
Does your starter excel in day games? Does he kill the Red Sox? Does he wilt in the heat of August or in the heat of a day game on turf? Does he struggle against lefties or in a dome? Does he have a favorite opponent or a favorite park to pitch in? Look at his IP history as see if there is potential trouble if he gets into uncharted territory in terms of workload.
Look down that long list of stats ... check ERA, WHIP. OBA, WHIP, OSLG% ... and look for numbers that catch your eye because they are particularly good or bad.
Use both his 2006 splits and his 3-year splits. Identify areas where a pitcher tends to do well and the areas where he doesn't. Then go back to the computer and check the outlying splits in each individual year over the last three to see if the split is a legitimate statistical characteristic of the player as opposed to a number skewed by one really good or bad season.
You are trying to define a profile of circumstances under which your starter has a better than average chance of success or failure. You are looking for an edge in those close decisions at the lineup deadline. You are looking to gain crucial knowledge before the starter pitches for you, when you cab actually make use of it.
If you bet on football or college basketball, you understand the concept of an "edge". Moreover, you understand the advantage of knowing a team's performance "splits"... when they are good plays and when they are not.
If you know the Patriots won/loss record against the spread on Monday night after a bye week, you know it just makes sense to know how well your 4th starter pitches in an August day game in Toronto.
So get to know your starters. Use a pitcher's splits to find out the starts to avoid preemptively instead of posthumously.
