Chris Carpenter
In my NL predictions yesterday I mentioned I thought Chris Carpenter was a bit overrated and while I didn't give a reason I will now. I think Carpenter's a great fantasy ace and someone you can build a staff around, however he's being drafted as the sure-fire #2 starter behind Santana and I'm not certain it's that clear cut. Including last year's postseason Carpenter threw 254 innings last season on top of the 263 innings he threw in 2005. I'm a bit concerned the workload could wear down Carpenter this season and with a revamped bullpen and a lineup that's heavily dependent on Edmonds and Rolen alongside Pujols I could see a dip in Carpenter's win total this season. All in all while Carpenter's being drafted as the sure-fire #2 starter in all of baseball I would just as easily draft Roy Oswalt a round later or even Jeremy Bonderman a few rounds later and feel just as comfortable.
Paul Lo Duca
Lo Duca got off to his customary strong start on opening night by going 2-5 with 3 RBI's. The big news for Lo Duca owners is that Willie Randolph seems to have pushed aside the idea of hitting David Wright 2nd. Batting 2nd in the Mets order provides Lo Duca plenty of opportunities to hit with Jose Reyes in motion and open up plenty of holes in the defense. Similarly he'll see more fastballs and score plenty of runs hitting in front of the Mets big boppers. Lo Duca benefited last season from an extremely friendly .275 BHIP%, 25 points above his 3 year average, which suggests his average should drop down back below the .300 line this year. However the 80 runs he produced in 124 games last season was easily his highest total of his career and it appears he'll continue to be a strong source of Runs for his owners this season while hitting 2nd.
Dan Uggla
I'm going to keep going back to my NL pre-season predictions blog as a frame of reference to analyze players as it's a slow day with only one game on the schedule. So with that said, let's take a look at Dan Uggla who made my overrated list after a breakout rookie of the year campaign in 2006. Uggla's minor league track record is solid and one that certainly warranted the Rule 5 pick the Marlins spent, but none of the track record suggests the season Uggla just posted. In his minor league career Uggla hit 64 HR's in 568 games and slugged .442, in 154 games last season Uggla hit 27 HR's slugged .480. While it's possible the steps forward are very real, Uggla's 2nd half slide where he hit .260-.313-.447 seems more in line with his track record than his monster 1st half.
Prince Fielder
I figured I should give a little more clarity to the "overvalued"tag I placed on some players in my predictions blog. Fielder being one of those players, I thought he'd be a perfect example to look into a bit deeper. When I label a player as overvalued it doesn't mean I don't like their projections heading into the 2007 season, it just means I believe they're currently receiving too much attention and are being drafted ahead of where they should. Fielder for instance I think will take a step forward in the batting average department after some bad luck with a low BHIP% and will even take a slight step forward in the power department, likely topping 30 for the first time in his career. So how can I view him as overvalued? Well, I've heard some projecting a Ryan Howard-type breakout season in the power department and I just don't see it for Fielder. He's yet to top 28 HR's at any minor league level and isn't the same "all or nothing"Fielder his father was. I like Fielder quite a bit heading into this season I just don't foresee quite as big a jump forward as some are projecting.
John Smoltz
Smoltz will take the hill tomorrow as the Braves begin their season in Philadelphia. Smoltz is a bit underrated as starters goes and it's likely because at 39 years old he's certainly no young buck. However Smoltz's transition back to the starting rotation the last 2 years has been a smooth move that's resulted in ace type numbers. Smoltz has paired a strong K:BB ratio with a strong ability to limit the long ball into a potential Cy Young candidate with just a little help from his bullpen. Smoltz won 14 games last season with a notoriously bad bullpen behind him and with a revamped bullpen heading into 2007 could easily push toward 16 or 17 wins this season. While many other owners will be embracing risk with younger starters like Cole Hamels and Jerad Weaver feel free to pay attention to just how good John Smoltz still is.
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Marc da Rock
Apr 1, 07 at 10:51 PM
Drew, perhaps you're just listening to the wrong people.
I'm a huge Brewer fan from the land of Cheeseheads, but few of us are comparing Fielder to Howard. Make no mistake: we're thrilled to have Prince playing at 1B, especially in the context as a member of the infield with arguably the best upside in MLB over the next few years (c'mon up, Ryan Braun!). Most of us believe that there's plenty of untapped potential remaining inside the big guy, but nobody (at least that I talk to) is expecting those monster stats (50-60 HR) stats associated with Howard. If The Prince hits .280 / 35 HR / 100 RBI, you won't hear any moaning in Milwaukee. Anything more is gravy.
BTW I like your picks in NL Central; that's exactly how I have it shaking out, with the Cubs edging out the Brewers. (This rivalry is slowly moving toward one of the best in MLB. Lots of chest-thumping money is hitting the table around here this year!) But do look out for those Brewers. Admittedly it's a huge if, but should some combination of Fielder, Hart, Hardy & Weeks really show up this year and Sheets pitches for a full season, I truly believe the Brew Crew will finish ahead of the Cubbies by at least half a dozen games. If none of that happens and we get yet another dreadful year from the Jenkins/Mench platoon, yikes! we might not finish ahead of Pittsburgh.
Mets Fan Anonymous
Apr 1, 07 at 10:51 PM
I want your opinion on what the Mets are thinking by letting Lastings Milledge ride the bench.
It's bad enough we're overpaying for Shawn Green, who actually did pretty well opening night, but for the life of me I can't understand why they would let Milledge just warm the MLB bench as opposed to being an everyday starter in AAA.
I got 3 guesses:
1) They're still trying out Milledge vs. Green to see who will win the starting job.
2) They are trying to flash around Green as trade bait. Sure the Mets would eat a bunch of his salary in a trade, but several teams wouldn't mind having Shawn Green.
3) The Mets are trying to showcase Milledge here and there as possible midseason trade bait. I know of several NL teams that wouldn't mind trading a good pitcher for a prospect like Milledge midseason if their teams are out of the hunt early on.
Lemme know if any of my guesses make sense. I would appreciate hearing your input on the subject.
Let's Go Mets!
Drew Dinkmeyer
Apr 1, 07 at 10:51 PM
Mets Fan:
I think you're on the right track with the Mets use of Green.
I think what they're doing is trying to platoon the two right now with Green getting the majority of the AB's against RH pitching and Milledge getting a lot of looks against LH pitching.
The thinking is this: The Mets probably feel that Milledge is their best trade chip to acquire pitching. If he goes down to AAA and doesn't put up the numbers he put up in previous seasons it will knock down his perceived value. So the goal is to give him as many chances to succeed at the major league level (i.e. lots of AB's against LH pitching) so they can drive up his value and possibly turn him into a solid #2 starter behind Glavine.
If they don't intend to use him as a trade chip you can look at it as the Mets organization trying to teach the youngster some humility. It's been widely reported that the Mets weren't happy with Milledge's attitude last season and maybe this is a way of trying to tone down the ego.
I don't think they'd be able to shop Green for much of anything because of the contract and the production, obviously his swing has slowed considerably and defensively he's not pretty out there.
Hope that helps and thanks for reading!