Inherited Runners Stranded Percentage
Good morning everybody. For the topic of today's First Pitch, we are going to tap into some feedback that came as a result of my last column (on Adjusted Reliever ERA), as well as a notion that Lou Blasi touched on the other day concerning how to compose your pitching staff.
One of the premises of the Adjusted Reliever ERA piece was that having a fuller picture of a reliever's effectiveness is an important part of determining their true value for fantasy purposes. For that study, I basically just added the relievers' Inherited Runners Scored to their ERA calculations. After the last column, I got comments from several of you suggesting that another way to measure reliever effectiveness was to look at the percentage of Inherited Runners that a reliever has allowed to score. To take this a step further, Lou showed the other day how proper usage of good relief pitching on your fantasy staff can actually help to 'insulate' your starters from bad performances (or, in some cases turn mediocre starter performances into really good ones).
Well, ask and ye shall receive. Today we will look at Inherited Runners Stranded percentage for relief pitchers for the 2006 season as well as so far this year. Hopefully this can help us to find some hidden value or perhaps dispel the notion that certain guys are valued as highly as they are. For the data from 2006, I used the following criteria to narrow the field. The pitcher must have had at least 15 total Inherited Runners on the season. Then, I calculated the Inherited Runners Strand Percentage (IRS%). For reference, the average IRS% for all pitchers that qualified was 67.8%.
Below are the leaders for last season in terms of Inherited Runners Strand percentage. These guys did the best job of coming into the game with runners on base and preventing them from scoring.
|
PLAYER
|
IR
|
IRS
|
IRS%
|
|
B.J. Ryan, Tor
|
29
|
28
|
96.6%
|
|
Brian Fuentes, Col
|
16
|
15
|
93.8%
|
|
Tyler Walker, SF
|
16
|
15
|
93.8%
|
|
Joe Kennedy, Oak
|
21
|
19
|
90.5%
|
|
Pat Neshek,
|
29
|
26
|
89.7%
|
|
Brian Wilson, SF
|
17
|
15
|
88.2%
|
|
Dennys Reyes, Min
|
45
|
39
|
86.7%
|
|
Justin Duchscherer, Oak
|
22
|
19
|
86.4%
|
|
Bobby Jenks, CWS
|
30
|
25
|
83.3%
|
|
Jonathan Papelbon, Bos
|
24
|
20
|
83.3%
|
|
Craig Hansen, Bos
|
18
|
15
|
83.3%
|
|
Wes Littleton, Tex
|
18
|
15
|
83.3%
|
|
Manny Corpas, Col
|
29
|
24
|
82.8%
|
|
J.J. Putz, Sea
|
40
|
33
|
82.5%
|
|
John Grabow, Pit
|
40
|
33
|
82.5%
|
As you can see from the data, BJ Ryan was clearly the best last season at stranding inherited runners. In addition, some other assumptions are being supported by this data. One reader suggested that closers do not primarily enter the game with runners on base. The data from 2006 shows that among closers with more than 20 saves, the average Inherited Runners per appearance was .25, while the average Inherited Runners per appearance for all relievers with more than 20 appearances was higher, at .52. To the contrary, though, the list above does include several closers: Ryan, Fuentes, Jenks, Papelbon, and Putz, who all entered games frequently with runners on base and all excelled at preventing them from scoring.
Now lets look at the worst at stranding Inherited Runners in 2006. Same criteria as for the list above.
|
PLAYER
|
IR
|
IRS
|
IRS%
|
|
Chad Orvella, TB
|
18
|
5
|
27.8%
|
|
Jason Davis, Cle
|
21
|
6
|
28.6%
|
|
Manny Delcarmen, Bos
|
31
|
12
|
38.7%
|
|
Rudy Seanez,
|
18
|
7
|
38.9%
|
|
Ron Flores, Oak
|
18
|
7
|
38.9%
|
|
Boone Logan, CWS
|
17
|
7
|
41.2%
|
|
Brian Meadows, Cin
|
29
|
12
|
41.4%
|
|
Nate Field, Col
|
22
|
10
|
45.5%
|
|
Matt Guerrier, Min
|
17
|
8
|
47.1%
|
|
Jake Woods, Sea
|
29
|
14
|
48.3%
|
|
Ambiorix Burgos, KC
|
41
|
20
|
48.8%
|
|
Ruddy Lugo, TB
|
30
|
15
|
50.0%
|
|
Fernando Cabrera, Cle
|
22
|
11
|
50.0%
|
|
Sendy Rleal, Bal
|
20
|
10
|
50.0%
|
|
Jack Taschner, SF
|
20
|
10
|
50.0%
|
Clearly this motley group is not full of players that we'd normally have on our fantasy squads. What we can get from this list though is a reason that some of them were not able to earn bigger roles in their respective bullpen pecking orders. This is especially true with Burgos and Cabrera, who were given shots to close, and couldn't hold onto the opportunity. It's easy to see why that was the case.
Now let's turn our attention to this season. Who has been the best at stranding runners so far in 2007? The data below is through games of 05/06. To qualify, the pitcher must have at least 10 Inherited Runners so far this season.
|
PLAYER
|
IR
|
IRS
|
IRS%
|
|
Justin Speier, LAA
|
13
|
13
|
100.0%
|
|
Michael Wuertz, ChC
|
11
|
11
|
100.0%
|
|
Joe Beimel, LAD
|
12
|
11
|
91.7%
|
|
Jonah Bayliss, Pit
|
12
|
11
|
91.7%
|
|
Brian Shouse, Mil
|
22
|
20
|
90.9%
|
|
Scott Schoeneweis, NYM
|
11
|
10
|
90.9%
|
|
Brendan Donnelly, Bos
|
11
|
10
|
90.9%
|
|
Geoff Geary, Phi
|
21
|
19
|
90.5%
|
|
C.J. Wilson, Tex
|
10
|
9
|
90.0%
|
|
Gary Glover, TB
|
15
|
13
|
86.7%
|
|
Mike Stanton, Cin
|
12
|
10
|
83.3%
|
|
Joe Smith, NYM
|
16
|
13
|
81.3%
|
|
Antonio Alfonseca, Phi
|
10
|
8
|
80.0%
|
|
Chad Paronto, Atl
|
10
|
8
|
80.0%
|
|
Doug Slaten, Ari
|
10
|
8
|
80.0%
|
Remember that the sample sizes for these results are still pretty small, so you can't take too much from this. If I were using the data myself, I would just take note that these guys are getting their jobs done so far, and could potentially be setting themselves up for bigger roles in the future. In terms of evaluating talent, however, I would still rely most heavily on a pitcher's peripheral stats like K/9 and K/BB ratios.
Now, here are the worst relievers so far in 2007 at preventing inherited runners from scoring.
|
PLAYER
|
IR
|
IRS
|
IRS%
|
|
Ruddy Lugo, TB
|
10
|
3
|
30.0%
|
|
Mike Myers, NYY
|
11
|
4
|
36.4%
|
|
Vinnie Chulk, SF
|
10
|
4
|
40.0%
|
|
Luis Vizcaino, NYY
|
11
|
5
|
45.5%
|
|
Joel Peralta, KC
|
11
|
5
|
45.5%
|
|
Victor Santos, Cin
|
13
|
6
|
46.2%
|
|
Jimmy Gobble, KC
|
13
|
6
|
46.2%
|
|
Renyel Pinto, Fla
|
10
|
5
|
50.0%
|
|
Shawn Camp, TB
|
19
|
10
|
52.6%
|
|
Matt Thornton, CWS
|
11
|
6
|
54.5%
|
|
Brian Stokes, TB
|
14
|
8
|
57.1%
|
|
Alan Embree, Oak
|
15
|
9
|
60.0%
|
|
Ryan Wagner, Was
|
10
|
6
|
60.0%
|
|
Levale Speigner, Was
|
13
|
8
|
61.5%
|
|
Aaron Fultz, Cle
|
16
|
10
|
62.5%
|
I think its worth noting that Ruddy Lugo appears on both the worst of 2006 and the worst of 2007 (so far) lists. If you think its hard to believe the guy still has a job in a big league bullpen...you'd be correct. He was sent to the minors after Sunday's game. In addition, Ryan Wagner is completely free of the "future closer" tag at this point, isn't he?
Comments (2)
Where do you compile these stats from? In my fantasy league we do points for inherited runners stranded and minus points for letting them score. Its hard to find this data neatly presented.... I'm wondering
if you can help?
Posted by Nathan | May 16, 2007 12:52 AM
Hi Nathan,
I had to do some serious looking myself to come up with this data. I wouldn't necessarily say it is neatly presented (if your purpose is to use them for your league stats), but you can take a look for yourself.
I found the stats at Sportsnet.ca.
http://www2.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/stats/pitching/
You need to 'Add Stats' for both Inherited Runners and Inherited Runners Stranded, choose your splits, then hit 'Update View'. The main problem for me was it only shows 50 players at a time. So, I copied and pasted the 50 shown into Excel, then clicked the website to the next 50, copied and pasted them all, etc.
Hope this helps.
Jeff
Posted by Jeff | May 16, 2007 6:38 AM