Pitching Category Mashup (K/BB and QS%)

 

Good morning everybody.  For today's First Pitch we are going to do something a little off the wall -- and perhaps mathematically unsound - and mash together a couple of key pitching categories to come up with a sort of uber-statistic for gauging starting pitchers.  My premise is that we know Quality Start Percentage (QS%) is a very useful indicator of a starting pitcher's worth.  (Even though earned runs are to some degree out of the pitcher's immediate control, I digress and admit its worth as a measure.)  In addition, I think that K/BB ratio is one of the most important statistics for a pitcher.  Past research has shown that the higher the K/BB ratio, the lower the ERA and WHIP.  So, why not combine these two together, and see what falls out?

 

In order to qualify, a pitcher needed at least 4 games started this season.  The average (QS%) * (K/BB) for all pitchers that qualified was 1.26.  Here are the pitchers that were more than 75% better than average with regard to this new statistic so far this season.  Stats are through games of 05/16/2007.

 

 

 

 

According to our new measure, Ted Lilly is clearly the best starting pitcher in baseball so far this season.  There are some expected names here, like Sabathia, Peavy, Halladay, Smoltz, Schilling, etc.  But also notice that some lesser-heralded starters are having excellent starts backed up by strong skills.  These are guys like Byrd, Shields, Meche, and Snell.  The other thing to notice is that all the pitchers on this list have elite-level K/BB ratios, so they should all be considered good bets for continued success.

 

 

Here are the pitchers that have been strictly average (within +/- 15% of the average) with regard to this new statistic so far this season. 

 

 

 

 

Now this list is a little more interesting.  Who do we think is really good, but according to this measure is merely average?  Some of the names that jump out at me are Vazquez, Kazmir, Pettitte, Garcia, Glavine, and Garland.  In most of their cases they still have strong K/BB ratios but are hurt by mediocre QS%.  Some of the trendier starters right now are John Maine and Fausto Carmona, both of whom should inspire some caution due to sub-2.0 K/BB ratios.

 

 

Here are the pitchers that have been significantly worse than average (75% or more) with regard to this new statistic so far this season. 

 

 

 

 

Hopefully none of these guys is busy destroying your fantasy roster right now.  (I personally swore off Jeff Weaver after last season...so I feel real good about that.)  I know Loewen is hurt now, but his 3.56 ERA was clearly not telling the true story of his worth.  Same goes for Rasner, who managed zero quality starts but still managed a 3.28 ERA.  The one guy on this list that I would hold out any real hope for would be Paul Maholm due to his K/BB ratio.  Otherwise, steer clear.  Not only are their skills lacking, but they don't have the ability to produce quality starts either, which means wins are also very unlikely.  Move along...nothing to see here...