John Maine
I'll continue to suggest to Maine owners to entertain the idea of selling high on Maine's early season production. Maine struggled last night against a Yankees lineup and was mainly the recipient of some poor defense behind him as a 4 run 4th inning was sparked by a 2 out bloop 2B that seemed like it should've been caught by RF Shawn Green who took a horrible route to the ball and was playing way too deep. But even though Maine's struggles last night weren't as much his fault as some poor luck and bad defense behind him I still suggest selling high. Maine walked another 3 batters in his 5 innings of work and the walk totals are becoming alarming. He now has totaled 30 BB's in just over 55 innings and his early season success has been spurred on by tremendous luck in both his Strand Rate (.88 before last night) and BHIP% (.226 before last night). Maine's going to be a solid option from here on out offering great W potential pitching in front of the Mets loaded lineup and offering good K totals (perhaps pushing 175+), but he doesn't have a significant track record behind him and the BB's and alarming fly ball tendencies (coming into last night he'd only allowed 5% of his fly balls to leave the park, despite 87% of his fly balls leaving the infield, needless to say that's unsustainable, last season his average was 15%). If I was a Maine owner and I could get something more established and more proven for him, I'd do it in a heartbeat.
Randy Johnson
Johnson's going to be a fantasy monster this season if this week was any indicator. In 2 starts this week Johnson struck out 19 in just 11 2/3 innings without walking a batter, picked up 2 wins, and only allowed 8 hits. Johnson's ERA still looks ugly after some struggles in his first few starts since coming off the DL, but he's about a month behind most regular starters in their preparation so it's fair to say this week was about his opening day. He's healthy, he's pitching back in the NL and he's on his way to a 200 K season with a strong ERA in the low 3's and 13-16 wins. He's going to be fantastic and if there's still time to buy low on a Johnson owner who's caught up in the total numbers dive in. I firmly believe he's going to be one of the top 20 pitchers in all of fantasy baseball.
Kevin Gregg
If it wasn't apparent before it should be now that Kevin Gregg has taken control as the Marlins closer. Gregg picked up his 3rd save of the season on Sunday against the Devil Rays pitching a scoreless 9th inning. He was bailed out a bit by a leaping Jeremy Hermida catch at the wall, but that's nothing to be ashamed of. His peripheral numbers this year are acceptable for the closing role with a K Rate of 1.00 and only 1 HR allowed in 26 innings. The only concern would be the relatively high .42 BB Rate, but on the whole I have few doubts that Gregg will be able to hold onto this role the rest of the year. Gregg was a durable reliever in the AL with solid K Rates, which means in the NL "Voila"he's a competent closing option. Grab him if he's still available, his only competition this year will be Henry Owens when he returns from a dead arm period and I think the Marlins would prefer a veteran presence in the closer's role (hence the pre-season trade for Julio instead of allowing Owens, Tankersley, or Lindstrom to close).
Tim Hudson
It appears Hudson's run with good luck hit a big bump in the road on Sunday. After getting through the first month and a half of the season with a .249 BHIP% (40 points below the MLB average) and a .82 Strand Rate, Hudson ran into some trouble on Sunday allowing 6 ER's in 4 2/3 innings on 8 hits and 2 walks without striking out a batter. The outing brought Hudson's ERA up to 2.42 and his ERA in May is a less shiny 4.21. This was Hudson's first non-quality start of this season which is remarkable consistency and he appears to be a solid #2 fantasy starter. Keep in mind though when analyzing Hudson that to this point in the season all of his peripherals were in line with last season with the exception of a significantly reduced HR's allowed Rate. Hudson with an improved HR Rate and improved bullpen behind him is a pitcher that's going to win 14-17 games, strike out 145-160 batters, and keep his ERA in the low-mid 3's. If you can still get value for him like he's back to the Cy Young pitcher he was in Oakland, there's still time to sell him a bit high, as his numbers are still very impressive.
Justin Germano
Germano improved to 2-0 with another 6 shutout innings on Sunday against the Mariners. Germano allowed 6 hits and 1 walk in his 6 shutout innings and in the process lowered his ERA to a miniscule 0.47 in 19 innings. The question remains is Germano for real? The answer is "sort of", Germano's a control specialist who should be able to maintain a solid WHIP because he walks almost no one (2 BB's in 19 innings so far), however he didn't have an overwhelming K rate in the minor leagues and hasn't shown much dominance at the major league level with only 5 K's in 19 innings. Germano's done a good job at keeping the ball in the ballpark at the minor league level and pitching in PETCO should keep his HR Rates low. He's got a solid shot to be a bit better than league average because of his excellent control and good home-park to pitch in, but he's essentially a more experienced Jeremy Sowers with a little worse stuff. The lack of "stuff"should limit his long-term ceiling but without much of the league seeing him early on he could have some short-term success. Like Sowers when balls are finding holes he's going to run into some trouble, but in NL Only leagues and deeper mixed formats Germano makes for an OK back of the rotation starter who won't help you in K's but should offer solid W potential and a decent WHIP.
