First Pitch - June 6, 2007 - Power Production (Batter GB/FB Ratio)

Jun 5, 2007

style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK2'> style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Power Production (Batter GB/FB
Ratio)

Good
morning everybody.  Today we are going to
revisit some research that we've done on batter Groundball/Flyball (GB/FB)
ratios.  Stated simply, style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'> style='color:blue'>hitters with lower GB/FB ratios hit more home runs and have
a higher slugging percentage than hitters with high GB/FB style='color:blue'>ratios (in general, of course there are
always exceptions).  The logic here is
easy to follow.  Balls hit in the air
have a chance of leaving the park for a homer, and are also more likely to
result in a double.  Balls hit on the
ground have NO chance to leave the park (rare inside-the-park homers
notwithstanding), and are less likely to go for extra bases.

Our goal
today is to reference our prior research, and to see if there are any batters
who are outliers.  We can look at this in
two ways.  First, we will look for
hitters with low GB/FB ratios but sub-par power production. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  Many of these hitters can be expected to
improve their level of power output. 
Secondly, we will look at hitters that have high GB/FB ratios and a high
level of power production.  In many cases
we should expect a power drop-off from these batters.

In terms of
reference material, I strongly suggest you look up the href="http://www.fantistics.com/baseball00/M-Reference-GBFB.htm">full article
on GB/FB that was based on five season's worth of historical
statistics.  Key data from that study is
below.  Hopefully this makes the
relationship between GB/FB ratio and both HRs and SLG pretty clear.

The first
thing I did was to compile the GB/FB stats for all qualified batters so far
this season (qualified batters must have at least 3.1 plate appearances for
each game their team has played).  Data
is through games of 06/04.  (GB/FB ratios
can be found on ESPN.com's href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?seasonType=2&type=sab&sort=avg&minpa=0&split=0&season=2007&pos=all&hand=a&league=mlb&ageMin=17&ageMax=51">stats
pages under the 'Sabermetric' category, as well as on their href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?statsId=5908">individual
player stat pages under 'Miscellaneous Batting'.)

The first population
of players I examined was those who had GB/FB ratios lower than 1.00. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  Based on the chart above, these players can
be expected to have a slugging percentage around .490 or greater. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  This group included 44 players, which is too
many to represent here, but I picked the ones from the list who we would
consider moderate to strong power hitters who have not produced to expectations
so far this season.  Data for these
players is below.

I know you
probably don't need me to tell you this, but Frank Thomas (you know...he of the career .562 SLG in 2000+ games)
ain't gonna be slugging below .400 for long. 
His flyball rate isn't as low as it was the last two seasons, but is
still as low as it was in 2004, when he had an excellent 13.3 AB/HR rate (which
then in turn equates to 45 HRs over a 600 AB season). style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  Bottom line, BUY Frank Thomas. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  As much as it IRKS me to have to say
it...pretty much the same recommendation goes for Pat Burrell.  I say it irks
me because I have to watch the guy play constantly, and to us he looks lost at
the plate too much of the time.  But...all
his indicators are good.  Some of them
are really good, in fact.  Despite the
.222 AVG and .388 SLG, his GB/FB ratio of 0.58 is the lowest mark of his
career.  Both his 20% walk rate and 1.08
EYE (which Paul mentioned yesterday) are the best of his career as well. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  Buy Pat Burrell too if you need power. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  Garrett
Atkins, Vernon Wells, style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, and Scott
Rolen are others that should be considered good bets to turn their lack of
power production around.  (Interesting to
note that all these players were also rated a "Buy"in the latest href="http://www.fantistics.com/baseball00/StrategyPlus-Hitters-June2007.pdf">Strategy
Plus Recommendations for Hitters.)

Next we
will look at the players who have some power production this year, but also
have high GB/FB ratios, suggesting that the power may not be sustainable. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  These players have GB/FB ratios greater than
1.50, and also have SLG greater than .420.

I'm not
gonna harp on Derek Jeter, style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Ichiro, or Carl Crawford here because they sort of break the mold. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  This is especially true of Jeter and Ichiro
who have both managed to maintain .400+ SLG despite 2.00+ GB/FB ratios. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  These guys also hit a lot of doubles and
triples. (Incidentally, Jeter and Ichiro both have exactly 52 career
triples.  Weird.) style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Lyle style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'> Overbay
had been hitting a larger percentage of ground balls this year, but that won't
matter for a while as he's on the shelf. 
I feel fairly confidant saying that Casey
Kotchman's .497 SLG so far is due for a correction if he maintains this
high a GB/FB ratio.  Travis Hafner is has seen a huge increase in his GB/FB ratio this
season (1.65 so far versus 1.05 career). 
I would expect this to change over the coming months, and his power
production will get even better.  style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>Orlando Hudson's GB/FB ratio is right
in line with his mark from last year, when he slugged .454, so it is reasonable
to expect that his .467 SLG this season is legit. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>