Tom Gorzelanny:
Gorz had a bit of an adjustment statistically last night as his 5 ER's on 7 Hits and 1 BB over 7 innings helped bring his Strand Rate and ERA back in line with his career Strand Rate and his Expected ERA for this season (which had been hovering about half a run higher than his Actual ERA). Gorzelanny pitched fine last night only walking 1 and striking out 4 and should continue to be a mid-to-low 3's ERA pitcher with 160-175 K's this season and 10-14 wins.
Homer Bailey:
I've tried to issue my fair share of warnings with younger pitchers throughout the year but I tried to be especially stern when writing about Bailey. Amongst the elite youngsters, Bailey is the one I have the least amount of faith in for 2007. He pitches in a very small ballpark on a bad team, with a bad bullpen behind him, and for a manager who's not afraid to run his pitchers into the ground with pitch counts (see Arroyo/Harang). On top of that, Bailey's "indicators"at AAA (K Rate, BB Rate, etc) weren't overwhelming although his record and ERA were both solid. I think Bailey's going to be a fine prospect long-term as long as Jerry Narron doesn't ruin his arm this year, but I think this year his lack of command with his breaking pitches is really going to hinder him. He reminds me a lot of a less polished Chad Billingsley pitching in a worse ballpark and for a worse team. If you are a Bailey owner in a yearly league and can sell him on the upside his name comes with I'd do it immediately for a more stable option. In Bailey's case I do not believe the reward outweighs the risk.
Corey Hart:
Corey Hart's quietly putting together a very impressive season in Milwaukee. On Thursday he put together another multi-hit game going 2-5 with his 5th HR of the season. Hart was a sleeper 20-20 guy coming into this season and is on his way to living up to the potential with 4 HR's and 4 SB's in June alone. Hart's improvements this year have been very real as he's significantly improved his EYE with a decreased K Rate and an increased BB Rate. The reduced K Rate is especially promising as Hart always struggled with high amounts of strikeouts in the minor leagues and it seemed to be the one knock against him. With the strikeouts suppressed and the power coming along Hart looks to be making the leap to a dependable OF option in all formats.
Mark Loretta:
Loretta took over immediately during Thursday's game for Everett and with the Astros offense lacking some punch it might make more sense to let Loretta stay at SS for the time being. The other option would be calling up Eric Bruntlett who's a better defensive option but as much of an offensive liability as Everrett. Loretta gets an uptick in value if he stays at SS as it will give him added positional flexibility going forward and offensively he should continue to hit for average as he always does. Think of him as a Pedroia or Polanco type fantasy player in a significantly less loaded lineup.
Yovani Gallardo:
The big news in fantasy circles was Chris Capuano heading to the DL on Thursday after the Brewers 6-5 win over the Tigers. Ok, so maybe it was more the fact that the Brewers decided to replace Capuano with top prospect Yovani Gallardo. I always preach patience with young players and stress the importance of understanding your league format, your current standing, and your current roster when adding "prospects"because while they come with significant upside they also come with more risk than the average starter. So I'm going to continue to preach patience with Gallardo, but I'll fully admit that were only 3 pitching prospects heading into this season that had my eye and Gallardo was on that list. The other two were Phil Hughes and Tim Lincecum, and honestly I think Gallardo comes to the majors with the best chance at immediate success. First and foremost he has the most experience of the bunch when he's been promoted as he's thrown almost 80 innings already at AAA after throwing 77 innings last season at AA. Secondly he gets to pitch against the weakest division in all of baseball in terms of hitting, and thirdly he gets to work with the most underrated pitching coach in the game in Mike Maddux. On top of pitching in a good situation, Gallardo has startling numbers in AAA this year. In 77 2/3 innings Gallardo has 110 K's and 28 BB's and has only allowed 4 HR's pitching in what's predominantly a hitters league in the PCL. For this year and this year only I think Gallardo will be the pitching prospect that performs the best at the major league level, better than Lincecum. While I preach patience with rookies, I have to admit this one has gotten my full attention as I believe he's one of the few impact players available in leagues for the rest of the season. If you've got the #1 waiver claim in your league, Gallardo's the guy to use it on.
