Joe Blanton:
Blanton picked up his 6th loss of the season last night allowing 4 ER's in his 7 2/3 innings of work. Blanton gave up 10 hits and walked 1 while only striking out 2. Blanton's an interesting case because he's thought of as a "2nd half player"in large part because of a tremendous 2005 2nd half, but he's only had 2 full years in the big leagues to evaluate and last year his 2nd half wasn't much different than his 1st half. So while the 2nd half myth may be debunked a bit most owners would then point to Blanton's genuine improvements this year in his overall numbers, spurred on no doubt by his improved control, and figure Blanton's probably still in line for a good 2nd half. But I'm going to suggest selling high on Blanton if you can. Delving deeper into his numbers Blanton's K Rate has dropped every month this season and in July has really started to fall off the table. Although the improvements Blanton's made in his control have been sustained, the fewer K's have led to a dramatic increase in his hits allowed. A slight increase would be expected, however the dramatic increase leads me to believe Blanton's stuff isn't fooling anyone. While we don't have a lot of major league data to evaluate we see that Blanton's had some wide discrepancies in his BHIP% over the previous 2 full seasons and if we assume the average is somewhere in the middle, Blanton's BHIP% this season is probably 30-40 points lower than it should be. I still think Blanton's going to be a good pitcher the rest of the way but I also think his value is at an all time high with a 3.36 ERA. Blanton's peripherals suggest he's closer to a 3.80 ERA pitcher with a 1.25-1.30 WHIP with 5-6 K/9, certainly a good option in fantasy but not a top of the line guy. Blanton won't hurt his owners too much going forward but probably has more trade value than actual value currently.
Nick Swisher:
If you're looking for an undervalued guy that can offer you some significant power in the 2nd half of the season take a look at making a trade for Nick Swisher. Swisher's peripherals are all in line with his 2006 performance with the exception of an improvement in his EYE, to the elite territory with a .93 EYE, and a lower HR Rate. The EYE is good news, the HR Rate you'd think would be bad news, but Swisher's actually maintaining similar LD% and FB% to previous years, so the real difference is less of his fly balls are finding the stands. This just means Swisher's having a few more balls find the warning track instead of getting over the fence and when his luck begins to turn a bit with this, the change in luck should result in a bigger power production in the 2nd half. Swisher's not going to help a lot in the batting average category but he should be good for another 13-17 HR's in the 2nd half and could be an undervalued trade target for those looking for a power boost.
Bobby Abreu:
Abreu went deep for the 2nd time since the All Star Break and is trying to put the awful 1st half behind him. So far the 2nd half results are quite good with 8 RBI's in the first 3 games and 4 extra base hits in total. Abreu's numbers were suppressed during the 1st half by some poor luck on balls hit into play and by a significantly reduced HR Rate from even recent years, so we could expect some regression. However don't expect Abreu to rebound with a monster 2nd half, while the very strong July numbers especially in the power department (.833 Slugging % in July) are impressive the key number to point to with Abreu is the BB's. In 36 July AB's, Abreu's only drawn 1 BB and this to me is the big difference in Abreu this season as the BB Rate has dropped precipitously. Abreu's making strides in his EYE overall over the last 2 months and has started to come on with the bat and he'll still provide solid R and RBI totals the rest of the way just as a product of the lineup he's hitting in. However if you're expecting a big 2nd half to the tune of .300-55-10-55-10 (which would've been about half a lot of preseason projections), I think the expectations need to be tamed closer to .285-50-7-45-7. Abreu will still provide solid numbers and because there's a track record and an improvement over the last few months there's room for optimism, but much of Abreu's value in the past was dependent on his incredible ability to get on base which by sheer quantity fostered lots of runs scored and SB's and with his EYE declining the opportunities are limited and with the power in steady decline, his days as a top tier OF option seem behind very much behind him.
Julio Lugo:
Lugo went 3-4 and swiped a bag on Saturday night and is now 6-12 since the break and 9 for his last 15. Lugo's .165 BHIP% this season is ungodly low and despite that managed 20+ SB's in the first half, which means if any reasonable regression happens in the 2nd half Lugo could be ready to put together a huge 2nd half for fantasy owners. It's been such a painful start to the season for his owners that they've probably bailed or are so burned by it that they find it difficult to evaluate him rationally (not that I'd know or anything...), but it looks like Lugo's going to be an extremely valuable commodity during the 2nd half, especially if he finds a way to get back near the top of the lineup.
Dustin McGowan:
McGowan's 1 hitter a couple weeks back brought him to the forefront of the fantasy radar as an expert's darling. However it's important to preach some patience with the youngster who struggled against Boston last night and gets the Yankees with his next start. Against elite offenses (DET, NYY, BOS, etc) McGowan's probably a guy best left reserved but against the rest of the league this guy has the skills to put together a very nice 2nd half. Good K Rate, acceptable BB Rate and HR Rates, and a top prospect history to back it up makes me a believer in McGowan. Don't get discouraged by last night's struggles or if he struggles against the Yanks next week, he'll be solid this year and a bit better than a matchups option down the stretch.
