First Pitch - August 1, 2007 - Underperforming Hitters Who Are Coming Around

 

 

Underperforming Hitters Who Are Coming Around

 

Good morning everybody.  Today we are going to look at players who have generally not met our expectations this season, but who have been showing signs of life lately.  Even though the majority of the season is over, there is still more time left than you think.  There are nine weeks remaining, which is actually more than a third of the season.  For fantasy purposes there are still some gains to be had if you know where to find them.

 

Our analysis today will go position by position, and will focus on a couple of areas.  First, we will attempt to identify players that have generally been a disappointment.  We will do this by comparing their preseason projected FPI against their current FPI.  If a player meets that criteria, we will then look at his month by month FPI performance.  I've divided the four months of the season into two 'halves' (April-May and June-July).  I'm looking for the players that had the biggest difference between their average FPIs for those two periods (meaning they are playing well lately).

 

In the data below, DIFF1 represents the percentage difference between the players current FPI and their preseason projected FPI.  Players with a current FPI more than 10% worse than their preseason projection met the first criteria.  Next, DIFF2 represents the percentage difference between a players FPI for the June-July time period compared to the April-May time period.  Again here, players with the largest percentage difference indicates that they are playing well lately, and could very well be on their way to eventually meeting our projection.  Now on to the data...

 

 

P	Player	TM	Current	Proj	April	May	June	July	DIFF1	DIFF2
C	Kendall,J.	Oak	0.29	0.56	0.15	0.18	0.48	0.11	-49%	79%
C	Navarro,D.	TB	0.30	0.53	0.45	0.03	0.33	0.47	-44%	67%
C	Ross,D.	Cin	0.40	0.61	0.16	0.54	0.37	0.43	-35%	14%
C	Paulino,R.	Pit	0.42	0.58	0.28	0.43	0.42	0.54	-27%	35%
C	Laird,G.	Tex	0.45	0.57	0.29	0.53	0.50	0.56	-22%	29%
C	Bard,J.	SD	0.54	0.69	0.52	0.38	0.63	0.65	-22%	42%
C	Montero,M.	Ari	0.43	0.53	0.45	0.25	0.53	0.45	-18%	40%

 

As evidenced by the data above, the catching position is not for the faint of heart (unless you've got a Martinez or a Mauer or a Martin on your roster).  Kendall showed a glimmer of life in June, but has since returned to a pathetic FPI level in July.  Any of these other guys is worth a shot.

 

 

P	Player	TM	Current	Proj	April	May	June	July	DIFF1	DIFF2
1B	LaRoche,A.	Pit	0.53	0.72	0.23	0.62	0.40	0.76	-27%	36%
1B	Delgado,C.	NYN	0.55	0.72	0.25	0.67	0.36	0.83	-24%	29%
1B	Pujols,A.	StL	0.81	0.92	0.59	0.76	0.86	0.96	-12%	35%
1B	Howard,R.	Phi	0.80	0.91	0.60	0.82	0.83	1.01	-12%	30%

 

The 1B list sports two names that you may find available or easy to acquire, and two players who you're unlikely to be able to acquire easily.  LaRoche and Delgado are the former, and both finally started to deliver some results in July after disappointing most of the season.  They should be decent bets to produce well the rest of the way.  Pujols and Howard both had slow starts, thus they met our criteria, but they have both been mashing the last two months, so that isn't any secret.

 

 

P	Player	TM	Current	Proj	April	May	June	July	DIFF1	DIFF2
2B	Barfield,J.	Cle	0.41	0.63	0.16	0.54	0.51	0.34	-34%	21%
2B	Sanchez,F.	Pit	0.53	0.62	0.29	0.52	0.64	0.54	-14%	46%
2B	Miles,A.	StL	0.46	0.52	0.38	0.41	0.67	0.29	-12%	22%
2B	Iguchi,T.	ChA	0.56	0.64	0.59	0.32	0.66	1.00	-12%	82%
2B	Cano,R.	NYA	0.61	0.69	0.45	0.46	0.54	0.99	-12%	68%

 

Iguchi and Cano lead the list of 2Bs that may have broken out of their underperforming habits from earlier this year.  Iguchi especially stands to score a ton of runs in the Philly offense.  Barfield has been a pretty consistent disappointment from month to month this season, but he still has the talent to turn it around.

 

 

P	Player	TM	Current	Proj	April	May	June	July	DIFF1	DIFF2
3B	Gordon,A.	KC	0.48	0.75	0.30	0.36	0.81	0.38	-36%	80%
3B	Atkins,G.	Col	0.58	0.80	0.55	0.28	0.83	0.65	-28%	78%
3B	Rolen,S.	StL	0.55	0.75	0.44	0.63	0.59	0.61	-26%	12%
3B	Kouzmanoff,K.	SD	0.45	0.61	-0.01	0.77	0.43	0.58	-26%	33%
3B	Zimmerman,R.	Was	0.54	0.68	0.37	0.64	0.48	0.68	-21%	15%
3B	Chavez,E.	Oak	0.54	0.68	0.58	0.32	0.74	0.56	-20%	44%

 

There is some real talent available at 3B that meets our criteria.  Atkins has come back a little bit after his big June breakout, but still has quite a way to go before reaching the level of our preseason projection.  Ryan Zimmerman and Eric Chavez are two other lesser-heralded players that should continue to improve.

 

 

P	Player	TM	Current	Proj	April	May	June	July	DIFF1	DIFF2
SS	Vizquel,O.	SF	0.41	0.59	0.33	0.32	0.55	0.45	-30%	54%
SS	Greene,K.	SD	0.49	0.65	0.61	0.22	0.72	0.42	-25%	37%
SS	Everett,A.	Hou	0.37	0.47	0.51	0.16	0.52	1.18	-22%	154%
SS	Young,M.	Tex	0.59	0.70	0.34	0.66	0.78	0.64	-15%	42%
SS	Bartlett,J.	Min	0.55	0.62	0.46	0.48	0.65	0.44	-11%	16%

 

The most intriguing names on this list are Greene, Young, and Bartlett.  Despite a horrendous May, Young has steadily improved, and is actually within striking distance of our projection.  He has had such a quiet year, though, that he might be available for cheap.  Jason Bartlett is another player to consider especially if you have needs in the SB category.

 

 

P	Player	TM	Current	Proj	April	May	June	July	DIFF1	DIFF2
OF	Langerhans,R.	Was	0.29	0.61	0.83	-0.50	0.58	0.13	-52%	115%
OF	Jones,J.	ChN	0.41	0.63	0.49	0.29	0.31	0.62	-34%	19%
OF	Drew,J.	Bos	0.53	0.77	0.61	0.33	0.70	0.41	-31%	18%
OF	Brown,E.	KC	0.45	0.66	0.22