Pitching Category Mashup Revisited (K/BB and QS%)

 

Good morning everybody.  For today's First Pitch we are going to revisit some analysis we did earlier in the year.  Back in May, we were looking for another way to help identify the worth of a starting pitcher.  Knowing that both Quality Start Percentage (QS%) and K/BB ratio are very good indicators of a starters' performance, we decided to mash them together to get a new combination statistical indicator.  Back then, we only had a little over a month's worth of data, but now we have a full 3 and a half months, which is more than a half season.  Hopefully we can discern from this analysis if there are any starters flying under the radar that we should target, or if there are any players out there who aren't doing quite as well as we thought they were (at least by this measure).  On to the data...

 

In order to qualify, a pitcher needed at least 10 games started this season.  The average (QS%) * (K/BB) for all pitchers that qualified was 1.26 (which is, incidentally, the same as the average when the analysis was initially run back in May).  Here are the pitchers that were more than 65% better than average with regard to this new statistic so far this season.  Stats are through games of 07/16/2007.

 

 

PLAYER	W	L	ERA	WHIP	QS%	K/BB	(QS%)*(K/BB)
Byrd, Paul  CLEÂ	7	4	4.41	1.34	56%	8.8	4.97
Sabathia, C.C.  CLEÂ	12	4	3.78	1.20	60%	6.3	3.75
Shields, James  TB Â	7	5	3.98	1.05	58%	5.9	3.42
Smoltz, John  ATLÂ	9	5	3.07	1.23	76%	4.4	3.34
Johnson, Randy  ARI	4	3	3.81	1.15	60%	5.5	3.32
Santana, Johan  MINÂ	11	6	2.60	1.02	74%	4.3	3.16
Peavy, Jake  SD Â	9	3	2.19	1.06	83%	3.7	3.06
Bedard, Erik  BALÂ	8	4	3.22	1.10	70%	4.1	2.87
Beckett, Josh  BOSÂ	12	3	3.35	1.14	65%	4.3	2.81
Guthrie, Jeremy  BALÂ	4	3	3.07	0.99	79%	3.6	2.81
Bonderman, Jeremy  DETÂ	10	1	3.50	1.17	65%	4.3	2.78
Haren, Dan  OAKÂ	10	3	2.33	1.03	90%	3.0	2.67
Buehrle, Mark  CHWÂ	6	5	2.98	1.08	78%	3.1	2.40
Lilly, Ted  CHCÂ	9	4	3.51	1.06	63%	3.8	2.37
Hamels, Cole  PHIÂ	11	4	3.83	1.24	58%	4.1	2.35
Sheets, Ben  MIL	10	4	3.39	1.16	63%	3.6	2.27
Blanton, Joe  OAKÂ	8	6	3.36	1.11	65%	3.5	2.26
Young, Chris R.  SDÂ	8	3	1.97	1.02	72%	3.0	2.15
Lackey, John  ANAÂ	12	5	2.98	1.16	68%	3.1	2.14
Escobar, Kelvim  ANA Â	10	3	3.04	1.14	71%	2.9	2.07

 

 

Paul Byrd used to be a frequent whipping-boy of mine (you might recall he played for the Phillies for a while), but this measure says he's got what it takes.  One caveat is that a pitcher like Byrd with an extremely low walk rate (and thus a very high K/BB) is always going to do very well by this particular statistic.  Is he the best starter out there?  Certainly not, but you can do a lot worse.  In my eyes the real best starter out there is Sabathia, and this statistic supports that notion.  Despite some recent struggles, James Shields remains a player to target, and may be available.  The strong (and largely unexpected) performance of Jeremy Guthrie is also supported by this stat. 

 

 

Here are the pitchers that have been strictly average (within +/- 10% of the average) with regard to this new statistic so far this season. 

 

PLAYER	W	L	ERA	WHIP	QS%	K/BB	(QS%)*(K/BB)
Mussina, Mike  NYYÂ	4	6	4.61	1.35	53%	2.6	1.38
Bush, Dave  MILÂ	7	7	4.86	1.33	41%	3.3	1.37
Webb, Brandon  ARIÂ	8	7	3.42	1.32	55%	2.5	1.37
Baker, Scott  MINÂ	4	3	5.43	1.33	40%	3.4	1.35
Belisle, Matt  CINÂ	5	6	5.02	1.39	44%	3.0	1.35
Oswalt, Roy  HOUÂ	8	6	3.91	1.41	62%	2.2	1.35
Colon, Bartolo  ANA	6	4	6.44	1.62	50%	2.7	1.34
Baek, Cha Seung  SEA	3	3	5.74	1.42	36%	3.5	1.29
Francis, Jeff  COLÂ	9	5	4.15	1.39	53%	2.4	1.27
Arroyo, Bronson  CIN Â	3	10	4.78	1.47	63%	2.0	1.26
Moyer, Jamie  PHIÂ	7	7	4.43	1.30	67%	1.9	1.26
Wang, Chien-Ming  NYYÂ	10	4	3.43	1.20	63%	2.0	1.25
Ortiz, Ramon  MIN	3	4	5.35	1.42	50%	2.5	1.23
Lohse, Kyle  CINÂ	5	11	4.68	1.36	53%	2.3	1.20
Zambrano, Carlos  CHCÂ	11	7	3.83	1.28	60%	2.0	1.20
Jennings, Jason  HOUÂ	1	5	4.15	1.40	45%	2.5	1.14

 

 

This is supposed to be the 'average' list, but there are actually some really big names here.  I'm talking about guys like Webb, Oswalt, and Zambrano.  What kind of opportunity does this prevent?  It depends on your point of view (and the point of view of your fellow owners).  If the Webb-Oswalt-Zambrano owner in your league perceives underperformance in these studs and is willing to move them, you should take it upon yourself to acquire such a commodity.  If, however, you ARE the Webb-Oswalt-Zambrano owner, you should hold your ground, despite their average performance when measured by this stat.  The rest of the guys on this list ain't too great and ain't too bad either.

 

 

Here are the pitchers that have been significantly worse than average (65% or more) with regard to this new statistic so far this season. 

 

PLAYER	W	L	ERA	WHIP	QS%	K/BB	(QS%)*(K/BB)
Burres, Brian P BALÂ	4	3	4.19	1.52	30%	1.4	0.43
Sowers, Jeremy  CLE	1	6	6.93	1.57	42%	1.0	0.42
Wells, Kip  STLÂ	3	12	6.25	1.62	25%	1.5	0.38
Padilla, Vicente  TEX	3	8	6.69	1.81	27%	1.3	0.36
Seo, Jae  TB	3	4	8.14	1.92	20%	1.8	0.35
Reyes, Anthony  STL	0	10	6.40	1.42	17%	1.9	0.32
Tejeda, Robinson  TEXÂ	5	8	6.70	1.74	24%	1.3	0.30
Hendrickson, Mark  LAÂ	4	4	3.92	1.27	10%	2.9	0.29
Trachsel, Steve  BALÂ	5	6	4.95	1.51	41%	0.7	0.28
Maroth, Mike  STLÂ	5	4	5.20	1.63	29%	1.0	0.28
Ohka, Tomo  STL	2	5	5.79	1.61	20%	1.0	0.19

 

 

Need a reason the Rangers are in last place in their division?  For one, they've given lots of (painful) starts to Vicente Padilla and Rob Tejeda.  It is amazing that the Cardinals have remained in as close contention as they are, with FOUR pitchers on this list (Wells, Reyes, Maroth, and Ohka).  At any rate, be sure to avoid all pitchers on this last list.

 

Within the next couple days, we will post the full listing of (QS%)*(K/BB) values for qualifying pitchers (minimum 10 starts) on the blog.