Derrek Lee:
Two weeks back I suggested Lee's power numbers were suffering from a bit of bad luck with the # of fly balls he's seen leave the yard. Well... Lee's making me look like a genius these days as he knocked out his 4th HR in the last 2 weeks. I still think DLee is good for another 10-13 HR's the rest of the way as the HR/FB Rate continues to normalize, but as I cautioned in that same blurb don't expect a monster 25 HR 2nd half that would be in line with his 2005 season. 2005 was the aberration and at 31 Lee is starting to lose a little bit of his power, putting him more likely in the 25-30 HR range annually than the 35-40.
Corey Hart:
I meant to write about Hart earlier in the week but forgot too. I've seen a lot of people jumping back off the Hart bandwagon as he's slumped a bit here in July and I wanted to preach some patience with the youngster. The problem is owners tend to have less patience with these youngsters thinking of all the flash in the pan starts they've seen and they just drop them without much research into it. Hart clearly isn't as good as his incredible June that got him on everyone's fantasy radar and he isn't quite this bad either, hitting only .200 during the month and seeing his EYE drop to .32 during July as well. The truth lies somewhere in between and in between is still quite a good player, even in this cold streak he's knocked out 6 HR's and scored 16 runs. He's going to continue to hit atop a powerful Brewers lineup and for that reason he's going to score runs and because of his great natural power-speed combo he's going to continue hit jacks and swipe bases. Now the batting average won't be over .300 going forward as he's really closer to a natural .280-.295 type hitter who will occasionally surpass .300 in his career, but he's going to offer significant value and he's almost like a Soriano-light, do not write him off just because of this recent cold slump and if someone in your league has take advantage of them and scoop him up.
Yovani Gallardo:
Here's a little bit of a lesson in the whole regression to the mean concept. Coming into Sunday's game Yovani Gallardo had been sporting a .76 Strand Rate which is a bit higher than the average Strand Rate for a starting pitcher which falls closer to .71-.73 with .73 being reserved for high strikeout pitchers. This means Gallardo's been having some good luck with the number of runners reaching base not scoring (thus stranded). Well on Sunday Gallardo only allowed 6 baserunners in his 5 innings of work, but 4 of them came around to score (a Strand Rate of .33 for the game). That is the essence of what we talk about when we expect a regression to come at some point, today luck was not on Gallardo's side as he still pitched well striking out 7 batters and only allowing 6 baserunners in 5 innings but the hits came in bunches and the result was 4 ER's. Don't worry about this start for the youngster, he'll be fine going forward and continue to offer Top 30 SP value the rest of the way, I've been touting him as the 2nd best pitching prospect to come up this year (behind Hughes) and I stand by it (even if Timmy keeps throwing well) because of his W potential and refined control which should allow him to limit the disastrous starts in 2007.
Jeremy Hermida:
My colleague Mr. Regan has been on Hermida for sometime now and if you haven't been listening to him well... you should be. He's been telling you to keep an eye out on Hermida and dropped big time comparisons like Grady Sizemore as an example of the talent Hermida potentially has. While those comparisons might seem a bit silly, Hermida's minor league track record screams potential all star. He posted an insane EYE of 1.25 along with a .518 Slugging % and .975 OPS at the AA level at the age of 21. While his numbers haven't been great this year, he's really coming on in July posting 1.011 OPS and a .81 EYE. While you might say this is just a nice hot streak, there's a trend here that's important. Here's Hermida's monthly K rates from May to July (32%, 27%, 21%). Hermida's cutting down the K's and raising the BB's (10%, 12%, 14%). While Hermida's not running very much now, he did average a little over 20 swipes a season in the minors. He's a 5-tool fantasy star blossoming before our eyes and not getting enough attention for it, of course unless you've been paying attention to David.
Tim Hudson:
Hudson made it 4 straight quality starts by twirling 7 shutout innings against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He had plenty of run support this time out as the Braves busted out to a 14-0 lead scoring in each of the first 7 frames. Hudson continued to pound the strike zone with the big lead and ended up only allowing 3 hits and 1 BB while striking out 5. Hudson's been tremendous this season and has almost returned all the way back to his Cy Young form in Oakland. He's reduced his BB Rate this season while keeping his K Rate stable and most importantly has rediscovered his power sinker, increasing his GB Rate to over 64%, which is tremendous. Because of the high ground ball rate he's only allowed 4 HR's and this has been the primary reason for getting back on track this season. This is kind of "the catch"when it comes to Hudson's 2007 season. He's been phenomenal and many of his indicators suggest the improvements are very much real but the current HR Rate is completely unsustainable. Hudson's going to be good in the 2nd half but some of the fly balls he's been allowing are going to start leaving the yard at a quicker pace than he's allowed so far and that alone should raise his ERA slightly, think another .15-.25 as some of those fly balls find their way into the seats.
