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Prospect Central - July 8, 2007

July 8, 2007 | article by Lou Blasi in Player Commentary (446)

Manny Parra – Brewers
Starter – Throws Left – 6-3, 200 – 10/30/1982

Manny caught everyone’s attention on June 25^th when he retired 27 straight hitters against the Round Rock Express to record the 8^th perfect game in PCL history, but he has been around a while.

Parra was a 26^th round pick in the 2001 draft, seemingly a lifetime ago, but he is still just 24 years old. Manny been delayed by a series of shoulder issues over the last three years but appears to be healthy now. The left-hander cruises in the low-90s but can reach the mid-90s when pressed. He plays like a power pitcher, which is always a plus from a left-hander. Moreover, he is effective against RHH as well. He throws a cutter that fools righties who he held to a .250 OBA in AA Huntsville. In his 21 AAA IP this year, righties have hit just .109 off of him.

Manny also throws a change and curve and while both are works in progress, they show promise. His tour here in AAA will reveal a lot about where he is after a sputtering pro start, but that stay in AAA may soon be shortened by a call up to the majors to help the Brewers pen.

Manny is a capable lefty, which makes him a prospect of interest. He’s a lefty with a little pop which make him even more interesting, and the fact that he gets right-handers out completes the sales pitch. He is not, however, a high ceiling prospect and projects as a decent #3 in a best-case scenario unless he pulls some kind of rabbit out of his hat as his health firms up for the first time in his pro career.

Long Term fantasy Grade - C

Seas Lvl W L   ERA    IP   K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG WHIP
2006 A+   1 3 2.96 54.2 10.0 5.3 0.7 .234 1.45
2006 AA   3 0 2.87 31.1   8.3 2.3 0.0 .227 1.09
2007 AA   7 3 2.68 80.2   9.0 2.9 0.2 .235 1.19
2007 AAA 2 1 1.29 21.0   9.0 2.6 0.4 .132 0.71

Johnny Cuerto - Reds
Starter – Throws Right – 5-10, 192 – 2/15/1986

This Dominican Republic native has fast tracked through the Reds system in 2007 working at three levels this season. Johnny is small at 5-10, 192 but throws big, reaching 93 regularly with his lithe arm. He can post a 96 now and then when provoked as well. He backs that up with a near-plus slider that is an effective out pitch on its best days and in 2006 he quickly developed a lively change up from scratch.

Johnny’s size is obviously a concern but he generates velocity with a smooth delivery. He doesn’t look like he’s throwing hard and that is part of what makes him so effective. The ball comes out of his hand with jump.

The effectiveness he has shown this year is encouraging but the Reds would like to see his fastball challenged to force some of Johnny’s attention on his secondary pitches. Cuerto is another pitcher who is at role crossroads. He will need to develop his secondary pitchers to remain a starter, but Johnny may be able to handle a late-inning reliever role by the start of next year if that is how the Reds decide to go. Obviously, that makes a big difference when trying to determine his fantasy value.

At 21, the Reds will give Johnny more time to develop the rest of his tool box and they are still aimed at making a starter out of him. With his change, and useful third pitch he has #3 capabilities and in a best-case scenario he could be a low-end #2 in small market eventually. The problem is that he could just as easily end up as a set up guy in 3 years.

Long Term Fantasy Grade - C

Seas Lvl W L   ERA    IP   K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG WHIP
2006 A    8 1 2.59 76.1   9.7 1.8 0.6 .195 0.88
2006 A+   7 2 3.50 61.2   8.9 3.4 0.9 .216 1.15
2007 A+   4 5 3.33 78.1   8.3 2.4 0.3 .246 1.19
2007 AA   1 0 0.69 13.0 13.2 2.1 0.7 .179 0.85
2007 AAA 1 0 3.60   5.0 10.8 0.0 1.8 .262 1.00

Mike Pelfry – Mets
Starter – Throws Right – 6-7, 210 – 1/14/1984

When Mike Pelfrey was sitting with the family around Christmas dinner this year he probably envisioned a much different 2007. The 9^th overall pick in 2005 probably thought he would be an effective MLB contributor this year, but as we predicted this spring in our preseason rookie breakdown, he simply isn’t ready.

Mike uses all of his 6 feet- 7 inches to impart great life to his low-to-mid 90’s fastball, which is one of the best among MLB prospects. Everyone loves his fastball. The problem is that he can’t keep MLB hitters off of it. Mike has a change that is just acceptable, and he shows a curve, which simply is not effective. He also has a hard slider that he can crank down a notch when needed.

Still, everything but his fastball is basically a show pitch. He can’t consistently get outs with them in hitters counts. No matter how good your fastball is, if it is all they have to worry about, hitters in the upper levels can deal with it. Besides his lack of off speed stuff and perhaps because of it, Mike’s mechanics are still fluid and he can have major struggles with command. He needs to be able to repeat his delivery with more consistency, but when you haven’t nailed down your offspeed stuff yet it’s hard to narrow things down to one delivery.

Even AAA hitters were less than completely baffled this year. Mike gave up a .269 OBA (.702) in New Orleans and a 1.40 WHIP with just a .320 BHIP%. There’s nothing terribly bad there but it doesn’t exactly scream “#1 starter!!!” either.

So far in the majors this year opponents are hitting .287 off of him with just a .310 BHIP%. As a result Mike is nibbling, working from behind and afraid to pitch to contact, so he’s walking 4.7/9. With a .287 OBA and a 4.5/9 K rate you cannot walk almost 5 hitters per nine innings and survive, even with a strong 1.6 GB ratio.

I’m not sure why the Mets are hanging him out to dry in the majors when he should be in AAA learning how to throw a breaking pitch. Mike is only 23 and he doesn’t have a ton of pro IP under his belt. He has made some good strides with his change so there no reason yet to think he cannot improve his off speed stuff. What is clear however is that he is not an MLB pitcher yet.

Anything can happen of course but I am downgrading Mike’s best-case ceiling to that of a good #2 and officially entertaining the doubt that if Mike can’t keep hitters off of his fastball by developing a strong second and simply useable third pitch, his MLB career may be in the bullpen.

Long Term Fantasy Grade - B

Seas Lvl W L   ERA    IP   K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG WHIP
2006 A+   2 1 1.64 22.0 10.6 0.8 0.4 .215 0.86
2006 AA   4 2 2.71 66.1 10.5 3.5 0.3 .243 1.30
2006 AAA 1 0 2.25   8.0   6.8 5.6 1.1 .151 1.13
2006 MLB 2 1 5.48 21.1   5.5 5.1 0.4 .294 1.73
2007 A+   0 0 3.00   6.0   3.0 4.5 1.5 .228 1.33
2007 AAA 2 2 3.44 36.2   7.1 3.0 0.7 .269 1.36
2007 MLB 0 7 6.10 41.1   4.6 4.8 0.9 .287 1.67

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