First Pitch - August 15, 2007 - Underperforming Pitchers Who Are Coming Around

Underperforming Pitchers Who Are Coming Around

 

Good morning everybody.  A couple of weeks ago, we took a look at some of the hitters so far this season that had been disappointments overall, but who had been coming around from a production standpoint.  Today we will try to run the same exercise for pitchers.  Remember that there is still ground to be gained in some leagues (even though many of us - sadly, myself included - are already focusing our attention on fantasy football at this point). 

 

The analysis today will include both starters and relief pitchers, although there are many more starters listed than relievers.  I think this makes sense, and it makes sense that starting pitchers improvement would be more due to skill improvement, whereas an increase in FPI from a reliever may also be heavily influenced by opportunity.  Our methodology will essentially be the same as we used for batters in the previous piece.  First, we will attempt to identify pitchers that have generally been a disappointment.  We will do this by comparing their preseason projected FPI against their current FPI.  If a pitcher meets those criteria, we will then look at his month by month FPI performance.  I've divided the four months of the season into two 'halves' (April-May and June-July - in this case, June-July actually also includes data from August through the 12th).  I'm looking for the players that had the biggest difference between their average FPIs for those two periods (meaning they are playing well lately).

 

In the data below, DIFF1 represents the percentage difference between the players' current FPI and their preseason projected FPI.  Players with a current FPI more than 10% worse than their preseason projection met the first criteria.  Next, DIFF2 represents the percentage difference between a player's FPI for the June-July time period compared to the April-May time period.  Again here, players with the largest percentage difference indicates that they are playing well lately, and could very well be on their way to eventually meeting our projection.  Now on to the data...

 

 

PLAYER	TM	Current	Proj	April	May	June	July	DIFF1	DIFF2
Mussina,M.	NYA	1.12	1.41	-1.25	1.33	1.08	1.10	-20%	2625%
Greinke,Z.	KC	1.17	1.44	0.99	-0.40	2.60	1.88	-19%	659%
Ortiz,R.	SF	0.95	1.16	1.06	0.00	4.50	1.50	-18%	466%
Wainwright,A.	StL	1.17	1.71	0.22	0.63	1.72	1.79	-32%	313%
Rivera,M.	NYA	1.92	2.27	-0.26	1.84	2.35	2.45	-15%	204%
Benitez,A.	Fla	0.73	1.68	1.39	-0.48	2.91	-0.18	-56%	200%
McCarthy,B.	Tex	1.02	1.32	-0.90	2.25	2.50	1.02	-23%	161%
Zambrano,C.	ChN	1.75	2.06	0.55	1.37	2.26	2.42	-15%	144%
Williams,W.	Hou	0.78	1.22	0.26	0.55	0.54	1.41	-36%	141%
Weaver,J.	LAA	1.22	1.74	0.34	1.13	1.99	1.16	-30%	114%
Ortiz,R.	Min	0.86	1.08	2.24	-1.41	0.57	1.05	-20%	95%
Hirsh,J.	Col	1.25	1.42	1.74	0.40	1.03	2.36	-12%	58%
Tomko,B.	LAN	0.58	1.30	0.96	0.19	1.06	0.74	-55%	57%
Lohse,K.	Phi	1.02	1.15	1.43	0.03	0.80	1.43	-11%	53%
Reyes,A.	StL	1.07	1.37	0.77	0.87	0.10	2.17	-22%	38%
Chico,M.	Was	0.74	1.09	-0.30	1.40	0.84	0.63	-32%	34%
Wells,K.	StL	0.84	1.37	1.17	0.09	0.33	1.27	-39%	27%
Davis,D.	Ari	1.08	1.35	0.64	1.03	-0.07	2.18	-20%	26%
Matsuzaka,D.	Bos	1.66	1.86	1.83	1.22	2.35	1.41	-11%	23%
Halladay,R.	Tor	1.57	1.74	2.57	-0.15	1.47	1.50	-10%	23%
Bush,D.	Mil	0.99	1.70	0.92	1.00	1.79	0.54	-42%	21%
Kazmir,S.	TB	1.37	1.74	1.33	1.20	0.83	2.03	-21%	13%
Nathan,J.	Min	2.14	2.72	0.93	2.83	1.50	2.62	-21%	10%

 

 

The guy that tops our list (mainly by virtue of his horrendous April) is Mike Mussina.  While he still isn't pitching at an elite level, he nonetheless has improved over the first two months and seems to have righted the ship.  Mussina's K/9, however, is the lowest it has been since 1994.  I would consider the two most improved starters on this list to be Adam Wainwright and Carlos Zambrano.  These guys have not only improved, but have improved to a level that is truly useful for fantasy owners.  As for Wainwright, his FPI for the last two months have reached pretty good (but not great) levels.  And in Zambrano's case, he has increased his monthly FPI each month of the season, reaching elite level in both the June and July-August time periods.  If there is a Zambrano owner dumping players in your keeper league, go get him. 

 

 

Next we will take a quick look at the REALLY hot hands.  These are simply the pitchers who have the best FPI since the start of July.  At this time of the year, riding the hot player can be everything, so these are guys you want to heavily consider getting into your lineup.   First the starters:

 

 

Pos	PLAYER	TM	Current	Proj	April	May	June	July+
P	Burnett,A.	Tor	1.58	1.61	1.71	1.62	1.21	3.07
P	Young,C.	SD	2.55	1.79	1.19	2.90	3.08	3.04
P	Armas,T.	Pit	0.57	1.17	-1.71	-0.33	-1.67	2.79
P	Bedard,E.	Bal	2.04	1.70	0.81	2.51	1.76	2.61
P	Zambrano,C.	ChN	1.75	2.06	0.55	1.37	2.26	2.42
P	Hirsh,J.	Col	1.25	1.42	1.74	0.40	1.03	2.36
P	Hudson,T.	Atl	2.03	1.37	2.76	1.44	1.32	2.23
P	Lincecum,T.	SF	1.90	1.57	#N/A	2.34	0.70	2.20
P	Davis,D.	Ari	1.08	1.35	0.64	1.03	-0.07	2.18
P	Reyes,A.	StL	1.07	1.37	0.77	0.87	0.10	2.17
P	Hamels,C.	Phi	1.70	1.74	1.72	1.69	1.34	2.16
P	Hernandez,O.	NYN	2.11	1.59	2.00	3.88	1.14	2.14
P	Webb,B.	Ari	1.86	1.83	1.67	1.46	2.02	2.13
P	Carmona,F.	Cle	1.64	1.02	1.52	1.96	0.62	2.12
P	Peavy,J.	SD	2.31	1.78	2.40	3.25	1.60	2.06
P	Kazmir,S.	TB	1.37	1.74	1.33	1.20	0.83	2.03
P	Clemens,R.	NYA	1.52	1.87	#N/A	#N/A	0.55	2.00
P	Harang,A.	Cin	1.89	1.49	1.67	1.72	2.20	2.00

 

 

 

And next the relievers (remember though, that a relievers FPI can be heavily influenced by opportunity...at least with a starter, you know he will get the ball every five days).