The
signs of fall are everywhere.
The
days are cooler. The leaves here in New
England are
turning. I am up at 5:30 am to get my kids to school
every day. The Patriots are humiliating the Jets. It is a great time to
live in
New
England. (Except
for all the whining
coming from the Meadowlands)
My
beloved Hellmets started our league’s World Series last
night, facing our oldest rival and one of the Original Four teams that
opened
our league 21 years ago. And the collaborative team that some of our
owners run
with me at Game Day Ritual, The Barking Dogs,
has the third best record in the league, in only our second season,
after a torrid second half. However, we lead the Wild Card chase by
just 3
games with 8 games remaining to play in the regular season. My
mind has been on starts.
Most
of us are there at this point if we have something for
which to play. We look at our lineup for the upcoming period, or we
look ahead
to our daily decisions in leagues with daily transactions, and we try
to figure
out the best combination of 5 starters (in most leagues) that we can
possibly
put together, given our roster and available free agents. Spots
starts, one-offs, streaming starters, dumpster diving
…whatever
your group calls it, the need to pick the best options available to you
is
critical right now. I know, I know … You are asking me
mentally “So how do I do
it?”
I
don’t know …
It
is like filling out your NCAA brackets. There are about a
zillion factors to consider and frankly, there is a lot of luck
involved. Also,
like filling brackets, everyone has their own
“system”. And … again the same as
filling out your brackets … this isn’t science as
much as soothsaying. There is
no formula. When
you are talking about one-game samples, you have to
accept what seems like it should be an inalienable truth, namely, you
don’t
know what is going to happen in any given game. Neither do I. Neither
does
anyone else. It is something a spreadsheet cannot tell you. All
you can do is better your odds, up the probability of a
positive result, give yourself the best chance to succeed. For that, my
friend,
you need all the info you can gather.
If
you are looking at a starter for a given specific start,
look up his splits and see how he has done this year in like
situations. See
how he has pitched home or away, and day or night. See how he has
pitched each
month this year, is he fading? What has he done the last 4 or 5 starts?
See how
he has pitched against his scheduled opponent. See how he has pitched
in their
ballpark if that is where the game is going to be. If you have a wide
split
anywhere, check last year’s split and see if the pattern was
in place in 2006.
We
have plenty of tools on the site as well … our 14-day
pitching projections tell you when he is starting and where, and who
his
opposing starter is for the next two weeks and that is updated daily. Our
Pitching Intelligence Log breaks down every start for
every starter on every team this year, including color coded listings
of all of
the indicators we use here on staff.
Our
MLB Team Planner gives you a simple rating for every pitchers
(and hitters) scheduled opponents for the week to let you know what
they are
facing ahead. And
of course, you can search our database for every starter
you are looking at, and get a ton of stats and all of our news items
for the
player up to the last 30 days.
We
give you plenty of tools. However, I am contractually
obligated this morning to do a bit more than refer you to the rest of
our stuff
on the site. So this morning I will give you a little deeper breakdown
of your
starter’s scheduled opposing offenses. The
1-10 rating you see on our MLB Team Planner is based on
the team’s OBP for the last few weeks. Below we will look at
some other splits
on MLB offenses, giving you the 5 best and worst in baseball for each
split to
help keep you out of trouble with marginal starts.
Here
are thebest 5
offenses based on OBP this month(MLB
Avg: .345)
: 1) Milwaukee
- .400, 2) Texas - .399, 3)
Philly - .388, 4) Pirates -
.385, 5) Yankees - .379
It
is surprising that that Yankees are so low, but the
inclusion of the Bucs and Rangers here has to be surprising too.
And
the worst this month
(.345): 1) Giants
- .266, 2) Orioles - .296, 3) Astros - .314, 4) Dodgers -
.317, 5) Braves - .319
The
Giants have been abysmal. The Braves are the only mild
surprise here.
The
rest of these splits are YTD unless otherwise noted….
The
best vs. finesse
pitchers (.338): 1) Red
Sox - .400, 2) Tampa - .397, 3)
Yankees -.389, 4) Dodgers -
.379, 5) Pirates - .369
The
Bucs and Rays are not the first two names you might have
guessed for sure. And
the worst (.338):
1) Texas -
.259, 2) Blue Jays - .263, 3) Reds - .301, 4) White Sox .302, 5)
A’s - .307 A
brutal split for the Rangers and Jays.
The
best vs. power
pitchers (.334, a hair lower than the MLB average vs. finesse pitchers): 1)
Yankees - .378, 2) Red Sox - .375, 3) Mariners - .363, 4) Braves -
.362, 5) Rockies .358
No
surprises at the top except perhaps the Braves.
And
the worst: 1)
White Sox - .295, 2) Nationals - .306, 3) Blue Jays - .310, 4) Reds -
.311, 5)
D-Backs - .312.
Generally
speaking you want to see the White Sox, Nationals,
Reds, or Jays on your starter’s schedule.
The
best at home
(.340): 1) Yankees
- .379, 2) Red Sox - .378, 3) Rockies
- .368, 4) Angels - .367, 5) Phillies - .363
Let’s
see if teams 3 through 5 can repeat their high ranking
on the road …
The
worst (.340):
1) Padres - .309, 2) White Sox - .322, 3) Nationals - .324, 4)
A’s - .324, 5)
Giants - .325
The
classic chicken or the egg argument. Are these bad
offenses or bad offensive parks? Or both?
The
best on the road
(.329, 11 points better than the home MLB average): 1)
Phillies - .351, 2)
Yankees - .348, 3) Red Sox - .347, 4) A’s - .345, 5) Mets -
.344
The
Phillies do more than repeat. The gem here however is
the knowledge that facing the A’s on the road or at home is
two vastly
different things.
The
best vs. LHP
(.342): 1) Philly
- .370, 2) Red Sox - .369, 3) Blue Jays - .369, 4)
Brewers - .360, 5) Yankees - .356
Ahhhh
… Here is a situation where the Jay’s might not be
a
good match up. The Yankees are a little less daunting vs. LHP, but they
are
still daunting. The
worst (.342):
1) Giants - .305, 2) D-Backs - .307, 3) Cubs - .314, 4) Reds - .317, 5)
White
Sox - .321
Perhaps
a little “undiscovered” edge for lefties against
the
Cubs?
The
best vs. RHP
(.332, 10 points lower than vs. LHP) : 1) Yankees
- .367, 2) Red Sox -
.358, 3) Phillies - .351, 4) Rockies - .348,
5) Reds - .344
The
Reds post a 5th best .344
vs. RHP and post a
worst in baseball .317 vs. LHP. That is just the type of insight we are
looking
for here … The Sox, Yanks and Phillies are just good, no
matter what or where,
it seems. And
the worst (.332):
1) Padres - .311, 2) Nationals - .311, 3) Jays - .312, 4) White Sox -
.317, 5)
Pirates - .317
The
Jays have an OBP of .369 vs. LHP, good for 3rd
best in baseball, but their OBP vs. RHP is .312, 3rd worst
… And
just for the heck of it ….
The
best in domes
(.328, 7 points lower than open air): 1) Reds -
.365, 2) Yankees - .358, 3)
Mariners - .358, 4) Rockies - .352, 5)
Padres
- .352
Hmmm…
Here is a situation where the Reds and Padres could be
dangerous it seems … The
worst (.328):
1) Royals - .295, 2) Mets - .305, 3) Cardinals - .306, 4) Pirates -
.308, 5)
Angels - .308
The
Yankees better put a roof on that new ballpark, and
quick, to solve the Angels before the division series.
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