First Pitch - September 12, 2007 - Best Skills 2007: Pitcher K/BB

Best Skills 2007 - Pitcher K/BB

Good morning everybody.  Today we are going to take a look at the pitchers who have shown the best K/BB ratios in the majors this season.  Why is this important?  Because past research has shown a very strong relationship between good K/BB ratios and success in the ERA and WHIP categories.  Sometimes you can find a pitcher who has ratcheted up his skill level, but his ERA and WHIP have yet to follow.  This means that you can try to nab him while he is still relatively under the radar of other owners.  The analysis will show if there are any such finds to be had this year.

First, however, a quick refresher on the importance of K/BB.  The information below is taken from a research article you can find in the Fantistics Reference Toolbox. 

In the chart below, the ERA and WHIP columns are self-explanatory, the K/BB column represents the mean K/BB ratio for all pitchers that fell into the range specified in the ERA or WHIP column, and % represents the percentage of players (of the 347 player/season sample population) that fell into the ERA or WHIP range in the first column.

The higher the ratio of strikeouts to walks, the higher level of control that pitcher has.  The higher the level of control, the better pitcher he is.  Better pitchers produce better stats.  Now here are two last pieces of information that sum it up nicely, and will help put perspective on the player data shown below.

--Among players with a K/BB of greater than 3.0, 75% of them had an ERA under 4.00.  And ZERO of them had an ERA over 5.00.

--Among players with a K/BB of greater than 3.0, 68% of them had a WHIP under 1.2.  And ZERO of them had a WHIP over 1.5.

You get the idea.  Now on to the pitchers with the best K/BB ratios in 2007.  Stats are through games of 09/07.  Pitchers needed a minimum 15 games started to qualify.

What can we learn from this list?  Well, for one thing we see some well known quantity-type guys.  These are your Santana, Smoltz, Schilling, Maddux, Peavy, and Sheets.  Next, you have a group of very good pitchers that have really come into their own over the last couple of years.  These are guys that are valued, but maybe not as highly as they should be, because their K/BB ratios are at elite levels.  In this group we find: Sabathia (who has really taken it to another level this year), Beckett (ditto), Harang, Hamels, Bedard, Haren, Bonderman, Felix, and Lackey.  The final group is the most interesting.  They are a hodge-podge of potential emerging talent and veteran hurlers.  One set of these guys are relatively unrespected, but prove they deserve more respect due to their excellent K/BB ratios.  I give you: Joe Blanton, Josh Towers, and Paul Byrd.  Finally, the young up-and-comers.  These pitchers are worth an investment, and look to be very good bets for the future if they can continue to demonstrate this level of skill: Shields, Sonnanstine, Baker, and Hendrickson.