Hi Folks,

Welcome to 2008! One of the ways I open a new season is by taking a look back at the previous one. Below is the link to the Historical Fantasy Values and some key indicators from 2007: http://www.insiderbaseball.com/HistoricalFantasyValues.pdf

As Baseball tries to cleanse itself from one of the worst scandals in it's long and lustrous history, we can see first hand how the gradual decline in PEDs (performance enhancing drugs) is impacting overall offensive numbers. As an example, the average number of homeruns hit last season by the top 300 MLB hitter declined by 11% in comparison to what is now being called the steroid "peak years"(1999-2001). So in 2007, not only did we see an average drop of almost 2 homeruns among the top 300 hitters, we also saw a 5% drop in slugging percentage from the season before.

The noted drop in production has obviously also impacted the fantasy world. Fantistics indicator of fantasy production among hitters, FPI, dropped by almost 10% (on average) when comparing 2007 to the previous 10 years (from .67 to .61). When looking at the historical fantasy values for many of the offensive players, you'll notice a drop in fantasy values among the elite. Suddenly we're also seeing fewer superstars, as the older ballplayers are starting the once inevitable....rapid decline on the right side of 30.

Pitchers have also been implicated in this societal scandal (Roger Rocket), but it seems that they are the most likely to benefit from the "fear of recognition" that is sweeping a clubhouse near you (food for thought as we ready for the release of our 2008 player projections). The upshot is more predictable forecasting, which is a boon for those of us who venture into the future.

It's unfortunate that this era will likely be tainted as a "Giant Footnote"in the baseball annals, likely within our children's generation. Quite unfortunate for the clean athletes who legitimately broke/break records, and more unfortunate for those of us who witnessed a false history in the making.

Cheers (or prayers) to a more ethical approach to the game of Baseball as we open the 2008 season.

See you back early next week when I discuss some player analytics and details of the new player projections software.