Hi Guys,
Here is another round of analytic notes. Again, many of the definitions for the indicators I am mentioning can also be found in our charting area as well. This morning we take our second swing at the Outfielders. In no particular order:
Jones, Andruw 170 point drop in OPS, however improved
SLUG by 70 points in 2H
Matthews Jr., Gary Bounce back in BA expected (Unlucky
BHIP .226 in '07), Roid rumors abound
Rowand, Aaron Career season at 30, Jump in SLG will be
negated by bigger ballpark
Hamilton, Josh Crushes RHP (.637 SLG), but struggles
against LHP (.292), PT risk
Rasmus, Colby Dominated AA last year with 69 XBH, we
expect him win job out of camp.
Swisher, Nick Excellent EYE (.76), Peak age, expected to
turn GAP power into HRs in '08
Willingham, Josh Expected to shoulder most of the RBI
load for the Marlins.
Hermida, Jeremy Improved EYE in 2H, led to strong 1/2
(12/41/.338), breakout candidate
Francoeur, Jeff Improving EYE, jump in power expected,
but consistency is of issue
Hawpe, Brad Increasing HR% (3.9 to 4.9), PT risk -
struggles against LHP
Fukudome, Kosuke Lifetime .536 SLG, more of a gap hitter
than power, will benefit from #3 slot
Young, Delmon Only 22 YO, solid Rookie campaign, expected
to lift many of his 2B into HRs
Bay, Jason Patience at the plate disappeared in '07,
Unlucky BHIP cost him 30+ in BA
Jones, Adam Poor EYE (High K totals vs Walks) may lead to
early struggles
Damon, Johnny Poor first half of '07 dampened his final
numbers. Reported in great shape this spring.
Scott, Luke Risk to platoon against Lefties, but stats
show he hits either equally as well. Underrated
Maybin, Cameron Risk to spend '08 in minors, high
ceiling, still maturing, high K% may hold him back.
Victorino, Shane SB potential gives him value among OFers.
Ramirez, Manny SLG % fell from .619 to .493 in '07. Even
At 35, should rebound in '08
Dye, Jermaine Unlucky BHIP cost him 30+ BA points, solid
2H (17/43/.277), bounce back
Wells, Vernon Unlucky BHIP deflated BA 25-30, yet OPS
drop by 200 is concerning
