"If
it blows out
it's going to blow out, you can't control that." ... Not words
that
warm the hearts of the Cardinals, or their fans, or Albert Pujols owners
on a cold February day.
What
he was talking about was the strained ligament in his right
elbow. Albert has played with right elbow issues for four season, and
it
is more of a throwing issue than a hitting issue, but in the NL of
course, when you can't throw, you can't play. So his elbow injury
becomes our issue.
Albert
says that his elbow usually doesn't give him any problems
until he has put some miles on the season, so he is just going to prep
this spring as
if he's fine. Pujols opted not to have off season surgery as it wasn't
clear that a minor procedure would provide much relief.
Much
has been made of Pujol's "sub par" 2007 (.327, 32, 103) and
his elbow was contributor to be sure. Pujols considered last year's
discomfort among the worst he's had with this injury, but there's no
real indication that
the injury is degenerating in a linear way. Albert probably has the
best
handle on things right now. It will be good, it will be bad, and
hopefully
it won't "blow"
That's
not enough of a possibility to keep you from considering
Pujols among the very best offensive players available. Look at 2007 as
a cost governer. Talk up the fact that Albert's elbow could snap like a
rubber band at any moment and save at least a few bucks off of what
you'd expect to pay in a more "normal year"...
B.J. Ryan threw for
10 minutes on the Blue Jays' first official work day in
Dunedin, his second time out since arriving. Two things were
encouraging
about the session. First he was mixing sliders in with his fastball,
and
second, he showed terrific command for where he should be on his 7th
session since coming off elbow surgery. Ryan will back off for a couple
of days before his next mound session.
The
possibility remains that B.J. will be ready for Opening Day,
but I am declaring that less than likely. The big picture however shows
that B.J. looks like a fully-viable option this season barring a set
back, and it doesn't look like he would miss the starting bell by that
much.. Like Albert, Ryan could become a value in this year's drafts
because of the surgery.
Carlos Beltran is
less enthusiastic about his recovery from his
knee surgeries. He doesn't expect to play in the first few exhibitions
games and feels he's behind where he wants to be in his recovery. The
team does expect him to be ready for Opening Day
however.
In
case there remains any doubt in your mind about Curt Schilling,
let me put them to rest. Consider him off the radar this season.
Despite what the Red Sox say, rest and rehab is not likely to allow
Curt to contribute a significant number of useful innings this summer.
Dr.Craig
Morgan, Schilling's personal doctor, who has twice
operated on his shoulder, is adamant about his diagnosis of a split
tendon and insists that surgery is the only option available. When
asked of the chances for Schilling to pitch this year without surgery,
he told WEEI in Boston "zero".
Dr.
Morgan is a man of conviction and spoke of the matter with
compelling certainty and he has me convinced. Even the best case
scenario, one that makes the Red Sox management and medical staff
right, means that Schilling is back after the ASB and there will be
real questions as to how effective he can be.
While
we are on Boston starters, both Jon
Lester and Clay
Buchholz
have reported to camp with somewhat beefed up bodies. In Lester's case
that is the result of his continued recovery from treatment. In
Buchholz's case it is exactly the kind of physical development I hoped
for when I wrote about him last year in AA.
We
are all excited about Clay's prospects in 2008 but keep in mind
that the Red Sox will likely be very firm about limiting his innings
once again. They will let him go further than he went lats
year, but probably not my a wide margin. Lester has been forced into a
regular turn with Schilling's
injury, and the Sox will certainly hand Buchholz his share of starts
(which will be less than what we all want). But Clay will give up some
starts
to the Julian Tavarezs
and Kyle Snyders
of Red Sox Nation. This may
even provide a couple of turns for Justin
Masterson over the course of
the year.
Anthony Reyes is in
competition with Todd
Wellemyer and Brad
Thompson for the available starter slot with the Cardinals
(vacated by
Mark Mulder's
injury). The difference is that if Reyes doesn't win the
battle he probably won't start the year with the big club. Don't rule
out the possibility of the Cardinals shopping him
around either, whether they think he's the best pitcher for
the 5th slot or not..
Randy Johnson said
today that he would not go through another rehab
for back surgery but he didn't speculate as to whether 2008 would be
his last
year at 44 years old. The rub here is that he is 16 wins shy of 300,
which means he will probably need another season to reach rthat goal.
Jason Schmidt had a
solid bullpen session on Saturday, using his
entire range of pitches. Jason was enthused, reporting a pain-free
session. This would be better news a month from now, but Schmidt owners
should be encouraged.
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