The
luck of the bounce -
Balls Hit into Play Success %
Balls Hit into Play Success %: defined as the
number of balls hit into play that are registered as hits against a pitcher.
Much has been written on the correlation between balls hit into play and the
pitcher’s ability to coax them in their favor. Similar to the research
conducted by Voros McCracken, Fantistics internal analysis of the topic
leads us to the following conclusion: Overall, pitchers do not have control
over balls hit into play, as it is more a function of the batter's ability.
However (in disagreement to the McCracken study), when you only consider the
top echelon of hurlers, there is a significant correlation which indicates
that some pitchers, particularly successful ones, do have influence over
balls hit into play.
Hits allowed is a category which is directly tied to many major pitching
categories including Wins, WHIP, & ERA. So understanding this indicator can
be a valuable tool in forecasting success.
In our empirical analysis, we considered the top 30 pitchers (the criterion
being that they must have a 4 year track record) whose Deserved Wins (QS
*.74) were above 13 (we are basically taking the top 30 pitchers who have
been around for at least 4 years), the results show a fairly strong 3 year
correlation (.31, .58, .37). However, when taken as a whole (top 150
pitchers) the correlation is barely existent (.18, .12, .08).
So what does this all mean? If we can identify the pitchers who do not have
control over balls hit into play (inconsistent yearly BHIP% results) then we
can extrapolate which pitchers were stricken by bad luck or good luck in the
most recent season. Using this information, along with the law of averages,
we can then predict which pitchers are due for a rebound/drop the following
season. Additionally, by identifying pitchers who have shown a consistent
BHIP% in the past, extreme deviations in the most recent year could indicate
an erosion of skills, injury, or conversely a lucky period.
The average BHIP% given up by
pitchers is .294 (given up by the top 130 starters)
As an example, Chris Capuano's BHIP% jumped to .324 in 2007 after sitting
below league average in 2006 (.292), 2005 (.267), 2004 (.292). At the same
time his K/Inning ratio was within his normal range, an indication that
Capuano was healthly in his cumulative starts. Therefore Capuano was likely
a victim of bad luck on balls hit into play. This is one of the reasons we
are expecting Chris Capuano to have a bounce back season in 2008.
The Chart below represents the pitchers who
pitched over 120 innings in 2007 and had a significantly higher than average
BHIP%. Shown are the 2007 BHIP, 3 Year BHIP, Strikeout Per Inning rate (KI)
in 2007,
and Strikeout Per Inning rate
(KI)
over the last 3 years. We show the
KI rates as a reference point. The premise: If a pitcher had a High Rate of
successful Balls hit into play (Singles, Doubles, Triples agasint), and his
Strikeout rate is off significantly, then the pitcher may have been injured
or pitching without his best pitches, hence the higher than normal rate of
balls that landed successfully for hitters.
|
Worst
Balls Hit into Play % in
'07 |
|
Player |
BHIP2007 |
BHIP 3YR |
KI 2007 |
KI
3YR |
|
|
Olsen,S. |
0.340 |
0.302 |
0.75 |
0.90 |
(0.15) |
|
Jackson,E. |
0.338 |
0.320 |
0.80 |
0.65 |
0.14 |
|
Mussina,M. |
0.337 |
0.312 |
0.60 |
0.77 |
(0.17) |
|
Millwood,K. |
0.335 |
0.306 |
0.71 |
0.77 |
(0.06) |
|
Hernandez,F. |
0.332 |
0.297 |
0.87 |
0.90 |
(0.03) |
|
Perez,Odalis |
0.329 |
0.317 |
0.47 |
0.61 |
(0.15) |
|
Kazmir,S. |
0.329 |
0.313 |
1.16 |
1.11 |
0.04 |
|
Burres,B. |
0.329 |
0.273 |
0.79 |
0.77 |
0.02 |
|
Wells,D. |
0.327 |
0.323 |
0.52 |
0.53 |
(0.01) |
|
Capuano,C. |
0.324 |
0.298 |
0.88 |
0.84 |
0.04 |
|
De La Rosa,J. |
0.323 |
0.327 |
0.63 |
0.67 |
(0.04) |
|
Belisle,M. |
0.322 |
0.311 |
0.70 |
0.69 |
0.01 |
|
Sonnanstine,A. |
0.322 |
0.322 |
0.74 |
0.74 |
0.00 |
|
Pettitte,A. |
0.322 |
0.303 |
0.65 |
0.80 |
(0.15) |
|
Hendrickson,M. |
0.321 |
0.309 |
0.75 |
0.58 |
0.17 |
|
Weaver,Jeff |
0.320 |
0.298 |
0.55 |
0.64 |
(0.10) |
|
Baker,S. |
0.320 |
0.308 |
0.71 |
0.68 |
0.03 |
|
Mitre,S. |
0.320 |
0.287 |
0.54 |
0.66 |
(0.12) |
|
Contreras,J. |
0.319 |
0.284 |
0.60 |
0.73 |
(0.13) |
|
Loe,K. |
0.318 |
0.302 |
0.57 |
0.49 |
0.09 |
|
Santana,E. |
0.318 |
0.290 |
0.84 |
0.76 |
0.08 |
|
Bonderman,J. |
0.317 |
0.313 |
0.83 |
0.87 |
(0.04) |
|
Bonser,B. |
0.316 |
0.305 |
0.79 |
0.81 |
(0.03) |
|
Morris,M. |
0.316 |
0.296 |
0.51 |
0.58 |
(0.07) |
|
Davis,D. |
0.316 |
0.297 |
0.75 |
0.82 |
(0.07) |
|
Wells,K. |
0.315 |
0.317 |
0.75 |
0.69 |
0.06 |
|
Tomko,B. |
0.314 |
0.299 |
0.80 |
0.66 |
0.14 |
|
Bush,D. |
0.314 |
0.286 |
0.72 |
0.68 |
0.04 |
|
Suppan,J. |
0.313 |
0.297 |
0.55 |
0.57 |
(0.02) |
|
Padilla,V. |
0.313 |
0.293 |
0.59 |
0.70 |
(0.11) |
|
Francis,J. |
0.312 |
0.304 |
0.77 |
0.73 |
0.04 |
|
Willis,D. |
0.312 |
0.297 |
0.71 |
0.71 |
(0.00) |
|
Greinke,Z. |
0.312 |
0.213 |
0.87 |
0.55 |
0.32 |
|
Weaver,Jared |
0.311 |
0.273 |
0.71 |
0.78 |
(0.07) |
|
Byrd,P. |
0.309 |
0.302 |
0.46 |
0.53 |
(0.08) |
|
Maholm,P. |
0.309 |
0.288 |
0.59 |
0.63 |
(0.04) |
|
Vargas,C. |
0.309 |
0.296 |
0.80 |
0.75 |
0.05 |
|
Sabathia,C. |
0.307 |
0.294 |
0.87 |
0.83 |
0.04 |
|
Robertson,N. |
0.307 |
0.285 |
0.67 |
0.68 |
(0.01) |
Players highlighted in
Blue experienced a increase of over 20 points in their BHIP% in 2007.
These players (Millwood, Hernandez, Burres, Capuano, Santana, Morris,
Bush, Greinke, Young Weaver, Maholm, and Robertson) are all candidates
to improve their overall numbers in 2008 as they may have been unlucky on a
cumulative basis on balls that found holes in 2007.
Players highlighted in
Red
experienced a increase of over 20 points in their BHIP% in 2007, and
also experienced a drop in their Strikeout % by over 10 basis points. These
players are not necessarily candidates to improve their overall numbers,
since the drop in K/I % means more balls went into play over their 3 year
average (which increases the odds of batted balls finding success), and also
indicates that these pitchers may not have had their best stuff (an
indication that their pitches may not have had "life", meaning they were
crushed more often by opponents). Some of these pitchers may have
experienced a dead arm period (Olsen, Mitre) , while others may be
nearing the end of the careers (Mussina, Pettite, Weaver, Contreras,
Padilla?). Of course PED overtures are always a consideration in this
era.
During the 2008 season we'll utilize
these graphs to identify trends that are likely to reverse themselves. These
trends will be highlighted in our periodic player recommendation reports.
Later this week, we'll have the pitchers who
may have been "lucky" on balls hit into play.
Anthony A. Perri
Statistician and Publisher -Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com
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