The pitchers we're going to identify as prime candidates to post production decreases in 2008 have been selected based on a Runners Stranded % which is greater than 5 percent in comparison to their 3 year history (if present), while also not posting a commensurate Strike-Out ratio. Additionally any 1st year players who posted a Runners Stranded % greater that .78, without a K/Inning ratio above .90 are at risk not to repeat their production.

The starting pitchers who have met my criteria and are projected to see a downturn in their production per game are: Dan Haren, John Lackey, Oliver Perez, Brad Penny, Fausto Carmona, Noah Lowery (Inj), Doug Davis, Orlando Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Kendrick, and Tom Gorzelanny. I am projecting (in our 2008 software), that each of these pitchers will post an ERA which is significantly greater than what they posted in 2007. Additionally some will likely see a rise in their WHIP and fall in their Win totals in 2008.

As an  historical reference, last year in this exercise we identified 9 pitchers who were above their mean in Runners Stranded % from the previous year and projected a drop in production for: Jered Weaver, Mike Maroth, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Chad Billingsley, Woody Williams, Bronson Arroyo, Justin Verlander, and John Maine.  Looking back, we were 7 out of 9 in identifying the pitchers who would not live up to their previous season output. The previous season we were a perfect 10 for 10. Obviously there is validity in using this indicator.

Runners Stranded Percentage can be found in our Player Production Charts and is built into the 2008 pitcher forecasts. Fantistics Subscribers can also view the outliers during the season within our premium subscriber Player Charts database.

In a few days we'll touch on the Pitchers with Stranded Percentages below .68 and who among the group we expect to excel in 2008.

 

Have a great weekend,

Anthony A. Perri

Publisher & Statistician

Fantistics Fantasy Sports