Howie Kendrick:
Much has been made around this site about Kendrick’s anemic EYE last season and how as a result he’s been overvalued heading into the season. While I fancy myself a numbers man, I have to go against my colleagues on this one. Everyone points to the abysmal 2.6% BB Rate for Kendrick and the terrible .15 EYE last season, but no one seems to mention the discrepancy between Kendrick’s minor league K Rate and his major league K Rate last season. In over 1500 AB’s at the minor league level, Kendrick posted a K Rate of just 13%. Last season he posted a 17.6% K Rate, but showed the ability to make adjustments in the 2nd half lowering it to just 14.6%. If Kendrick can cut the K Rate back to his minor league levels I see significant improvements in the EYE department, even without improving his low BB Rate. Similarly much is made of Kendrick’s .317 BHIP% being high and likely regressing, but little is made of his extra base hit rate (just 9.2% vs. career minor league 12.7%). Kendrick has room to improve in his contact rate and his power as judged by his minor league numbers and as a result I think the significant batting average contributions along with a 10-10 line in HR’s and SB’s is plausible, making our .292-91-12-64-9 projection an undershot in my opinion. Kendrick’s started the season off with a ridiculous 18-36 mark, which obviously won’t last, but the improvements in his K Rate and Extra Base Hit Rates have started. Kendrick has struck out just once in his first 36 AB’s while recording 6 extra base hits.
Raul Ibanez:
I’m not sure we have enough campfires to indicate just how hot Raul Ibanez is. Ibanez racked up his 3rd consecutive multi-hit, 3 RBI game with a 2-5 effort on Sunday. This is a 3 game span which included 6 extra base hits. He’s slugging a whopping .755 early on in the season, while also demonstrating a dominant EYE 2.67. The EYE is a bit of a mirage as 5 of Ibanez’s 8 walks early on have been of the intentional variety, so Ibanez owners shouldn’t get their hopes up that this is anything more than a veteran player getting off to a remarkable start. Ibanez has been a pretty consistent .290-25-95 option over the last few years so if you can sell him for anything more than that feel free to take advantage.
Brian Bannister:
Brian Bannister’s much publicized interview on MLBTradeRumors.com earlier in the off-season brought to light his conscious battle vs. BABIP and garnered the respect and intrigue of Sabermetricians everywhere. Early on the season Bannister seems to be winning the battle as he’s posted a 3-0 record with a 0.86 ERA through his first 3 outings. While Bannister seems to be winning the battle vs. BABIP, posting a .200 BABIP through his first 21 innings, the more subtle improvement has been in his K Rate, which has climbed early on to .62 (as opposed to .47 last season). Bannister’s also increased his GB Rate to over 50% which is consistent with his improvements in this area last season. Bannister’s sure to garner even more attention with his CG yesterday, but I still think he’ll end up being a bit overrated from a fantasy standpoint. His best case scenario would seem to be a Greg Maddux type in the AL.
Cliff Lee:
Welcome back Cliff Lee! Lee mowed through the A’s lineup on Sunday allowing just 1 earned run in 8 innings. More impressively Lee didn’t walk a single batter to the patient A’s offense. Lee has now only walked 1 batter in his first 2 outings of the season while striking out 12 over a span of 14 2/3 innings. He’s back throwing strikes again, throwing 66% of his pitches over the plate and his K Rate has returned. For those in deeper leagues its time to jump on the bandwagon as Lee should have good value in deep formats pitching in front of a loaded Indians offense. In mixed leagues I’d likely wait a bit longer to see if Lee’s start holds. His next two starts should be favorable matchups against Minnesota and KC.
Jeff Niemann:
A very nice debut for the former Rice Owl on Sunday afternoon as Jeff Niemann shut down the Orioles through his first 6 major league innings. Neimann allowed just 1 earned run on 6 hits and a walk, while striking out 5 to earn his first major league win. Niemann has shown nice strikeout potential in the minors but has always struggled with his control, posting a minor league BB Rate of .38. If Niemann can control the BB’s his ability to strike batters out (1.04 minor league K Rate), should offer nice value in AL only leagues.
