Jack Cust- OAK- Hot- The pendulum has swung wildly in Cust’s favor. His .212 BHIPx at the end of April was probably not going to last, but it has soared to .286 over the last 3 weeks, meaning that it has gone beyond regression to the mean to an equally absurd extreme in that span. Cust is not as bad as his .188 April average, but he also is probably not as good as his .339 May average either.
Nick Blackburn- MIN- Cold- Blackburn has about the emptiest “quality start” you could imagine. Yes, he lasted 6 IP and allowed 1 earned run. However he also gave up 6 unearned runs and allowed 10 hits and walked 1 while striking out 4. The ironic thing is that his first 5 IP were scoreless and the meltdown didn’t happen until the 6th. Those innings are more representative of what he has done this season than the disastrous 6th. Before last night he was able to post a 3.77 ERA despite swimming against the tide of a .332 BHIP%. In his minor league career, control was his main strength, but not power, with 154 BBs and 434 Ks in 702 IP. That has continued with the Twins, as he has struck out 34 but walked just 11 in 63-1/3 IP and owns a WHIP of 1.40. The WHIP is inflated due to the BHIP%, so Blackburn looks like a decent, middle-of-the-rotation guy who has value in deeper leagues.
Brad Wilkerson- TOR- Cold- For some reason the Blue Jays seem to love Wilkerson. They had been after him for a while until they were able to pluck him off the waiver wire. Now they are installing him as the leadoff hitter for the foreseeable future despite little production since he has joined the team. Last night’s 0-for-4 gives Wilkerson a .167 average and .255 OBP with Toronto, not the kind of numbers that justify a leadoff role. His BHIPx is lower than the major league average this season, at .231, but Wilkerson is consistently below average in that department, so there is probably more than luck working here. His Batting EYE of .65 is above his norm, but that is mostly due to a decrease in K ratio, not an unusual increase in walks, so it is not helping his OBP. Don’t make the same move Toronto has and put any reliance on Wilkerson’s future success.
Ichiro Suzuki- SEA- Hot- Ichiro has become the walking man of late. During his current 5-game hitting streak, not only has he gone 8-for-20, but he has also drawn 6 walks. This has brought Ichiro’s batting average up to .290 from .271 and his OBP from .321 to .357. He has added 5 steals for good measure. This is more like classic Ichiro.
Victor Martinez- CLE- Cold- Martinez’ current average of .304 is not reflective of how he has played recently. He is only hitting .214 this month, and even worse over his last 6 games, going 3-for-25. Martinez next homer will be his first of 2008. A BHIPx of .308 has been propping up his average as well. Martinez’ Batting EYE has plummeted. After striking out just 4 times in 82 ABs through the end of April while drawing 4 walks, he has struck out 12 times in 56 May ABs while drawing 5 walks. This is a very sudden loss of power and control of the strike zone and out of whack with Martinez’ career numbers. At age 29, this is the same point where Mike Piazza saw a dramatic decrease in production and was dealt from the Dodgers. Piazza picked it up after getting to the Mets via Florida, but it will be interesting to see if Martinez can surge later this season without going elsewhere.
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