Mark Teahen – Teahen, who homered last night, had a breakout season back in 2006, but he has been unable to build on that success. For one thing, Teahen’s HR rate from ’06 sticks out like a sore thumb. Here are his HR rates from 2005-2008 (1.4/4.2/1.2/1.4). A closer look shows that Teahen, in 2006, benefited from two numbers related to his fly balls that have since been shown to not be consistent with his career averages. First off, Teahen’s FB% in ’06 was 35.5%, but in ’05, ’07, and ’08 respectively it was just 23.8%, 29.2%, and 29.6%. Likewise, Teahen’s HR:FB% from ’06 is becoming to appear more and more like an outlier. In that season 16.5% of Teahen’s fly balls ended up over the outfield wall. Yet, in his other three seasons, Teahen’s HR:FB% are just 8.6%, 5.8%, and 8.5%. Unfortunately for Teahen and his owners 2006 appears to be a fluke.
Kevin Slowey – Slowey’s start last night seems to be indicative of his skills. He did not walk anyone (just 1.33 BB/9), but he also only struck out 2 (5.75 K/9). Slowey also gave up 4 runs off of 7 hits, including 2 homeruns. Over his career Slowey has given up on average just over 2 HR per game. Entering last night’s game, Slowey had managed to lower his ERA to 3.38, aided greatly by a .246 BABIP and 82.3% LOB%. Slowey is unlikely to maintain those numbers throughout the entire season. Such was the case last night, and we can expect to see a lot more starts like that out of Slowey.
Milton Bradley – Bradley hit two homeruns last night, boosting his total to 11 on the season. Even before that performance Bradley’s AVG/OBP/SLG line stood at an impressive .317/.425/.552. So, what exactly has gotten into Milton Bradley? Well, he is currently boasting a singles average that is nearly 40 points higher that his established previous three year average., but maybe some of that can be attributed to Bradley’s increased patience. His walk rate has risen since 2005 (8.1/12.8/12.9/16.2). Also, Bradley seems to be benefiting from putting the ball in the air more often. Normally we might expect Bradley’s .98 GB/FB ratio to rise on account that it is well below his career average (1.34). However, I think it represents a change in hitting style, as last season Bradley’s GB/FB ratio (.92) was even further away from his career average. The result for Bradley was very similar numbers (.306/.402/.545) to what he is doing now. So, I do not see Bradley cooling off too much, with the exception of maybe 10 or so points dropping from his overall average.
Nick Swisher – Swisher was another one of the White Sox hitters who seemed to respond to Ozzie Guillen’s tirade. He blasted his 5th HR of the season. So far this year, Swisher’s power production has been disappointing. From 2005 – 2007 Swisher posted HR rates of 4.1/5.4/3.4, but so far he his HR rate this season is just 1.9. Since Swisher’s EYE and distribution of balls in play are all in line with his career averages and what he did last season, the only explanation for Swisher’s lack of power is the worst HR:FB% of his career. Right now Swisher’s HR:FB% is 8.1%, much lower than his career average of 13.7%. Expect Swisher’s HR totals to increase quickly over the summer as his HR:FB% normalizes.
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