Jason Bergmann - I was somewhat excited about Bergmann as a nice sleeper pick in deeper leagues, but he just posted his second straight very bad start. Bergmann does have a good K rate (8.79 K/9), allowing him to have an outstanding K/BB ratio of 4.20. So, that gives me hope he can turn things around. The problem with Bergmann is that he is way too FB risky. The last two seasons his GB/FB ratios have been .71 and .66. Those are low, but Bergmann has allowed even more fly balls this season. His current GB/FB ratio is .52, and that is partly responsible for Bergmann’s current poor stretch of starts. He has now given up 6 HR in his past three starts. Keep an EYE on Bergmann, as I have not lost faith in him. If he could improve his GB/FB ratio he could definitely be a fantasy force, but for now he should be avoided.
Ben Sheets – Sheets got the victory yesterday pitching a strong 7 innings in which he struck out 9 batters and allowed only 3 runs. He also walked 2 and gave up 2 homers. It must be very pleasant for Sheets owners to see those 9 K’s because his K rate has been down this season, but I still think we could see Sheets regress throughout the rest of the season. Currently his BABIP is .271, which is 35 points lower than his career mark of .306. Also, his current LOB% is 83.3%, whereas Sheets’ career LOB% is 72.1%. When those two numbers normalize we could see Sheets give up more runs than he has been, especially since his K rate is down from his career numbers. With that information and knowing that Sheets is always an injury risk anyways, you might want to sell high on him now.
Scott Olsen – On the surface, Olson looks to be pitching very well for the Marlins, but, despite another strong showing last night, I have my concerns. Entering last night’s start Olsen was striking out just .51 batters per IP. As a result, he has a K/BB ratio of 1.21, which is terrible. Olsen’s best friend this season has been luck and not skill. His current BABIP is .227 (career mark is .303), and that is bound to rise. When it does we should see a quick rise in Olsen’s ERA and WHIP. There is no way that Olsen can maintain extended success with his current skill set.
Freddy Sanchez – Sanchez won the batting title just two seasons ago, so what is going on with him this year? Sanchez is hitting just .244 after hitting .344 and .304 the past two seasons respectively. Part of this is a result of Sanchez’s downward trend in EYE. In 2005 Sanchez’s EYE was a very respectable .72, but it has never been that good since. In 2006 it was .60, and it was .42 last season. So far this season it is just .30. It’s an interesting case because usually players learn patience as they gain experience. Unfortunately for Sanchez, the opposite has been true for him, and it is taking a toll on his overall numbers.
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