In our continuing series on player recommendations, the latest edition of Strategy Manager + highlights the pitchers who are deviating from their projected production this season. The under and over producers are listed according to their projected rankings through the remainder of the season. The rankings are heavily influenced by current indicators such as their Dominance (K/I and Walk Ratios), Expected ERA, and Balls Hit into Play Ratios. On the PDF ranking sheet you will find 5 tiers of Starting Pitchers. Similar to baseball's classification of starters (Ace, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th Slot), we've taken a similar approach in grouping the fantasy starters. Here are a few comments:

Tier One Notes:
Despite posting a phenomenal WHIP (1.06) through his first 11 starts, Dan Haren has a 3.75 ERA. The tell tale indicator is his .67 Runners Stranded Percentage (down by more than 10% over his 3 year average). When Haren starts locating better (as he did Sunday), his overall numbers should see a nice improvement. After getting off to a horrendous start, CC Sabathia has thrown 6 Quality Starts over his last 7 outings. Over the last 3 weeks he's posted a 0.96 WHIP and opponents are only hitting .207 against him. Aaron Harrang's last 2 poor outings have crushed his ERA, consider it a short term blip as his arsenal is still intact, not a bad time to acquire him at a discount. Erik Bedard has mixed his good outings with poor ones over the last 5 weeks. Look for him to go on a tear in the near term, although the chance of him repeating his 2007 campaign is starting to look remote. Justin Verlander has started to right his ship, over the last 3 weeks, Verlander has thrown 3 quality starts, along with limiting opponents to a .224 average (1.21 WHIP). Look for a rapid ascend from his current 4th tier. Matt Cain has been bitten by the gopher ball this year. In only 67 Innings, he's allowed 11 dingers! Consider that he only allowed 14 and 18 in the previous 2 seasons (in almost 200 innings in each). Opponents are only hitting .235 against him this year, grab him while he's cheap and hope his teammates score some runs for him. Joba Chamberlain is making his much anticipated starting debut this week, and if you followed our stash & wait strategy...you should finally be rewarded. Although his 1.27 K/I ratio and .81 Runners Stranded Rate will likely be unsustainable as a starter, I'm expecting a sub 1.25 WHIP and an ERA below 3.30. If there are any questions about Johnny Cueto's ability, rewind his Sunday performance against the Braves. Someone got into Cueto's ear since his last start, and he's finally moving his fastball...making his location within the strike zone an unpredictable commodity...wait for the next bumpy outing before making overtures. Chris Young remaining in the top tier is a bit of a risk depending on his recovery time from the facial fractures, his owners await some payback for their investment. Rich Harden is always a tier 1 ace as long as he remains healthy.

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