First Pitch – June 18th – Value Picks:
It’s Wednesday! Which means another edition of Value Picks is here, but this week we’re going to do things a bit differently! After 2 ½ months of digging through the free agent pool trying to unlock those diamonds in the rough, we’re going to re-focus our definition of “Value”. Instead of trying to find unknown potential that is readily available for pickup, we’re going to look at some trade targets who have seen their “Value” depressed by an underwhelming start to the season. Most fantasy owners tend to take stock of their team’s standing around the beginning of June and right around the middle of June the trading season really amps up, so let’s dig in at some of the players I’m targeting in trades. We’ll keep the usual format, trying to address a player at each position, but instead of worrying about ownership %, we’ll talk about the difference in their pre-season value and their current value.
Catcher: Chris Iannetta
There isn’t really an appropriate trade target from the catcher position in my mind right now unless you can pry Jorge Posada away from an owner at a reduced price. Furthermore, the majority of the veterans with depressed trade values don’t have the upside of someone like Iannetta, whom I really believe in, so he’s my focus yet again for this column. I’ve touched on Iannetta before through player blurbs and even in the Value Picks column, but he’s still owned in just 5% of ESPN leagues despite hitting .281-18-7-22 in limited playing time. Over a full season’s worth of AB’s his current line would extrapolate to .281-72-28-88 which would make him one of the very best catchers in all of fantasy. The only question with Iannetta is playing time and with his production clearly out-pacing Yorvit Torrealba and the Rockies already 9 games back in the West you’d have to think Iannetta will get the bulk of the playing time in the 2nd half of the season. When that playing time comes he’ll settle in as a clear cut Top 10 catching option with the upside of a legitimate Top 5 threat. Over a full season his numbers would look a bit like Geovany Soto-lite as he’ll hit for good power and offer good run production in a deep Rockies lineup (while benefiting from a favorable home park). He can be had in plenty of FA pools, so he’s a worthy add right now, but those in deeper leagues where he’s owned I wouldn’t hesitate to make a play for him.
First Base: Prince Fielder
The differences between Prince Fielder of 2007 and Prince Fielder of 2008 is pretty simple, the power just isn’t there. It’s ironic that I’m supporting a bounce-back in Fielder’s power after I was so blatantly wrong in the pre-season of 2007 when I suggested Fielder wouldn’t cross the 50 HR threshold until his true prime power years (ages 27 and 28), but its exactly the position I’m taking. From a power perspective, Fielder’s 2008 power peripherals are more in line with his 2006 season than his 2007, which would usually lead you to believe 2007 was the anomaly. But with Fielder, the power was very legitimate across the board last year (his 2B’s rate increased in line with his HR Rate) and in June he’s starting to show signs of the power coming back again (Slugging .604). Similarly the great strides Fielder made in his plate discipline and pitch selection last year have held up in 2008. With all of the other peripherals shadowing 2007, I believe the power peripherals will start to get into line as well. While Fielder won’t hit 50 this year, I bet he makes a big run at 40, which means nearly 30 HR’s from here on out. While trading a hot-performing 1B who has made genuine improvements like Adrian Gonzalez for Prince wouldn’t necessarily be a prototypical sell high, buy low (as Gonzalez should continue to be good, just not likely *this* good), it’s the type of deal I’d be willing to make. I believe Fielder performs like the Top 5 1B you expected the rest of the way.
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
It’s becoming a Brewers love-fest! This was supposed to be the breakout year for Weeks after he finished 2007 with an OPS above .990 in his final 200 PA’s. However, while the peripherals have stayed in the same ballpark in 2007, the production has fallen off considerably. Weeks’ EYE has stayed in the same range as last year and he’s actually made improvements in cutting down his K Rate. The ability to put more balls in play should have helped his average, but a ridiculous .185 BHIP% is further depressing Weeks typical low average production into the .210’s. Weeks IS having trouble with his FB Rate which is suppressing his power totals, but this should similarly have a positive impact on his batting average with more ground balls allowing him to use his speed and increasing his BHIP%. If Weeks keeps hitting more ground balls, the average should come up. If he starts hitting more fly balls the average might not bounce back as much but the power should come. Weeks strong on-base skills has already had a positive impact on the Runs category as he’s scored 43, ranking 4th amongst 2B and SB’s where he ranks 8th. All this with horrible luck getting on the base-paths! Weeks has the chance to be an Ian Kinsler type with a lower batting average and his recent injury has already dropped his ownership % to 52% in ESPN leagues as owners are fed up with Weeks poor production and his injury history. But this injury for Weeks is to his quad and he’s already begun taking ground balls. The Brewers are suggesting he’ll be available shortly after the minimum (eligible this Sunday) and now seems like a nice time to buy low on the 2B, especially if the BA risk is irrelevant to you. Owners in points-based scoring formats or OBP based leagues could greatly benefit from adding Weeks to their roster.
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki
Tulo could return as early as the end of this week and while the upcoming return has probably given his value a short-term boost it’s likely Tulo will need some time to regain his timing and get back into the swing of baseball activities. The result will be a few weeks of sub-par production that will reinforce Tulo’s slow start to the season in his owners’ minds and create a buying opportunity for the savvy owner. As a reminder, Tulo’s terrible start to this season was largely fueled by some horrid luck. Tulo had a ridiculous .111 BHIP% and an absurdly low HR/FB Rate of just 2.6%. Outside of those two horribly unlucky numbers, Tulowitzki’s peripherals were all in line with last year’s breakout: Eye of .53 (’08) vs. .44 (’07), GB Rate of 42% (’08) vs. 41.8% (’07). The atrocious luck was really holding down Tulo’s early season success and while I do think he’ll initially struggle upon his return thanks to a lack of timing, I think he could be in for a big 2nd half after the break. Last season Tulo hit .299/.353/.526 after the break with 58 Runs, 16 HR’s, and 63 RBI’s.
Third Base: Miguel Cabrera
My single biggest trade target over the last 2 weeks has been Miguel Cabrera. From a peripherals perspective there are significant warning signs that Cabrera’s slow start this year is more than just a slow start. His EYE has regressed as have his power rates across the board. So with Cabrera it’s a matter of faith more than anything. At the age of 24 he was on his way to becoming the next Albert Pujols and was moving into one of the best lineups in all of baseball. I’m a believer that this 1st half is simply an aberration and Cabrera will return to his usual production during the 2nd half of the season. There are signs we may not have to wait till the 2nd half as he’s busting out of it in June hitting .310/.359/.500. I believe and I’m working hard to acquire him in any league with a disillusioned owner. If you believe in Cabrera’s talents eventually winning over as I do, the deteriorating peripherals serve as a nice conversation point for dealing with Cabrera owners.
Outfield: Brad Hawpe
The time to buy low on Brad Hawpe is coming to a close quickly as Hawpe homered for the 5th time since coming off the DL less than two weeks ago. If you can take advantage of an owner still focused on Hawpe’s season totals do so quickly. Hawpe’s early season struggles were backed by improving peripherals, especially his EYE which saw a vast increase thanks to a dip in his K Rate and a rise in his BB Rate. Hawpe simply struggled from some poor luck on BHIP% and HR/FB Rate that was suppressing his numbers as a whole. While Hawpe has already bumped his season HR total up to 8, I think there’s another 20 left in his bat and if you haven’t noticed the trend here… get Rockies if you can. When the weather warms up the Rockies really start to hit as each of the last two seasons the Rockies have increased their OPS as a team by over 25 points. From here on out the Rockies have 47 games at home, compared to 44 on the road, only a slight difference but one that is worth noting.
Outfielder: Nick Swisher
Swisher’s been one of the bigger disappointments of the fantasy season as many expected the move from Oakland’s massive ballpark to Chicago’s smaller park would help Swisher make a push for 40 HR’s. The power hasn’t been there for Swisher this year but everything else is in line including his EYE and his great FB Rate which is still up over 65%. With the weather starting to turn and the White Sox having more home games from here on out, Swisher looks like a strong candidate to rebound with a big summer. It’s already starting here in June as he’s Slugging over .600, so look for an anxious Swisher owner to take advantage of.
Starting Pitcher: Aaron Harang
In the pre-season I highlighted Harang as a 2nd tier ace that I always found underrated. He gave you the strong WHIP, big innings totals, High K numbers, and even good W totals over the last few years, but always had a higher than usual ERA from pitching in a bandbox and as a result always slipped a round or two later than usual. This year he’s gotten off to a horrible start with a 3-9 record, but all his indicators are in line with his track record. The K’s are down a smidge and the hits are up a bunch, but so are the BHIP%, which suggests some bad luck is at work. The only indicator that is out of line is Harang’s FB Rate which has risen this year, which is a bit of a concern, but Harang’s shown signs of reversing that a bit over the last few starts. His numbers were really looking good (3.32 ERA) until the 3 starts following his 4-inning bullpen outing in the San Diego marathon game which makes me believe he may have just gone through a bit of a dead arm period after that irregular throwing schedule. Harang’s value has been driven down by his poor W-L record that he’s being viewed as more of a Matt Cain type from last year than the borderline fantasy ace that he is. From this point forward I’d rather have Harang than some other higher ranked pitchers like Carlos Zambrano and Felix Hernandez and I believe he can be had at half the price.
Relief Pitcher: Takashi Saito
Saito got a save last night but it was just the 12th opportunity he’s had in 27 outings. Given the Dodgers home park and their propensity for playing tighter games thanks to good pitching and a middling offense, it would seem Saito would be in line for a number of opportunities. But it just hasn’t happened yet and as a result his owners might be frustrated with the single digit save total on June 18th. Everything that is in Saito’s control is pretty much in line with the last two years of dominant performance, with the exception of an ever so slightly higher BB Rate (.30). It’s not big enough of a jump to be a concern though, making Saito’s biggest negative simply the lack of opportunity he’s been given.
