With the half way point
officially upon us, it's a good time to look at the production (rankings) we expect
from the top 300 position players in the second half of 2008.
Subscribing to the regression to the mean concept (the statistical term referring to the
probability that an accumulation of non random numbers will revert towards
their norm), the rankings below have a bias to our preseason projections
and the historical first half/ second half splits for each player. There are other factors including injuries and playing time
situations that have also been factored in.
As we've discussed in prior
Strategy Plus articles, players do follow trends in their
production. Most player
production comes in spurts during different time periods of the
season....and for many players, these trends tend to repeat themselves.
Some players are great 1st half players while others don't come around
until after the all star break. Using this information helps us (The
Fantasy GM) make educated decisions with player personnel.
Second Half Performers
Knowing that over the last 3 years Carlos Pena and
Adam LaRoche's second half slugging percentage RISES by over 100
points (+.19 FPI), is pretty handy information.
Here's a big look at the group of players who have performed much better
in the second half of the season over the last three years (some players
only have a 2 year history):
Second Half Under Performers
On the other end of the spectrum are the players who
have not had a good second half based on their 3 year average. Jack
Cust, Kevin Youkilis, and Eric Brynes
have all seen their slugging percentage drop by over 100 points when
compared to their first half! It's typical to find this list littered with
catchers, as they tend to tire in the late stages of the season (squatting for 3 hours, 5 days a week
has it's toll) On to the list:
Although some of the listed
players above may be have a desirable or undesirable experience in the
second half, they still may be moving in a opposite direction in the
current rankings. Other factors such as current playing time situations,
injuries, and regression to their "production mean" are also factors in
the equation. Also keep in mind that all players are included in the
analysis, including first and second year players. The 1st/2nd half
splits on players with less then 2 years of playing time should be
Click here for the Second Half Rankings - Batters
(Pitchers coming later this week)