AL Daily Player Spotlight - September 24th, 2008

Michael Leone

Zack Greinke – Greinke has been very quietly posting a solid season as a starter. He has a 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a 13-10 record. His K rate has been consistently on the rise over the past 4 seasons, and that included this year. Here are his K/9 since 2005: 5.61/7.11/7.82/8.14. He is currently posting a career best K/BB ratio of 3.27 and has also gotten away from the fly ball tendencies he seemed he was developing last season. If Greinke’s K’s continue to climb, we could see his numbers increase across the board of what was already good fantasy output.

Justin Verlander – Verlander might have an ERA a bit worse than he has actually pitched as the result of an unlucky 65.1 LOB%. However, his ERA still deserves to be above 4, and most of his lack of success this season is a result of how Verlander has pitched, not bad luck. His K/9 dropped from 8.17 to 7.12 this season. Meanwhile his BB/9 grew by .87 per 9 innings up to 3.86/9. All of this has led to a K/BB ratio of below 2, which is not something that elite pitchers do, and many people felt Verlander was an elite pitcher coming into the season. There is nothing that makes me feel as if Verlander is poised for a bounce back season. For example, his GB/FB ratio dipped below 1 for the first time in his career.

Aaron Hill – Coming into this year, I liked Aaron Hill as a sleeper, but a concussion forced him to miss more than 4 months of the season. In my eyes, this will just make him that easier to nab late in drafts next season. Hill, 25 YO, is about to enter his baseball prime and certainly has skills. For example, he had a whopping 66 EBH in 2007, including 47 doubles. As Hill matures (will be 26 before Opening Day next year) some of those doubles should develop into HR. Also, Hill is a solid .290 hitter. He should be the Blue Jays opening day #2 hitter, which could lead to a lot of runs scored with Rios and Wells, who have excelled under new manager Cito Gaston, hitting behind him.

Jesse Litsch - For the second year in a row, Jesse Litsch experienced some good success as a major league starter, but I just simply do not see it continuing. Litsch’s K rate is too low to allow for consistent success. His K rate is a poor .498. The only sign that Litsch’s skills have actually improved this season are he was stingier with his walks. Still, it is quite unbelievable that he has a career sub 4 ERA and has won 12 games this season.

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