BJ Upton – BJ Upton hit his 9th HR of the season last night. HIS 9th! Here’s a young hitter who blasted 24 out of the park in his rookie season, in under 500 at bats. If anything, Upton’s power was supposed to increase so a drop off, especially one this substantial, is certainly concerning. First of all, let’s give Upton props for lowering his K% by 7% thus leading to an EYE of .73, a dramatic increase over last season’s .42 EYE. This is definitely a good sign for Upton moving forward. Why is he not hitting HR though? Well first of all, Upton has hit 7% less fly balls than last season. Secondly, out of the fly balls he does hit, only 7.4% are leaving the ballpark, compared to 19.8% last season. What does this all mean? Well, Upton may be putting the ball on the ground more as he learns to adjust to his newfound plate discipline. This should start to correct itself, starting as soon as next season. In terms of his HR/FB%, it may be as simple as to say Upton was lucky in 2007 but unlucky this year. Next season, we should see his HR/FB% around his career mark of 12.2%. With that happening along with an anticipated increase in his FB% over this year’s percentage, we should see him back near 20 HR, although he may not be the 30 HR type that many hoped he would develop into. Still, Upton’s strides in his EYE are signs that next year could be a big rebound season over this year.

Kevin Youkilis – Youkilis hit his 29th homer of the season last night, and I really did not see this one coming. Often times we praise players for learning patience at the plate, but this is one occasion where a guy getting more aggressive made him a better hitter. Youkilis’ EYE dropped from .73 to .58, and his BB% was 2.2% lower than his career average. However, the aggressive approach led to 23 more extra base hits than last season. What was the result? Well in terms of OBP, Youk’s increase in EBH cancelled out his decrease in walks as his .392 OBP was almost identical to last season’s .390. Meanwhile, his SLG went up a whopping 120 points over last season’s .453, which was actually his career high heading into this year. He is now no longer just a top 1B in OBP leagues, but in all leagues. The numbers do not seem to show that this season was not a fluke. Rather, they accurately portray Youk’s successful shift in philosophy at the plate.

Vicente Padilla – Quietly, Padilla went 14 – 8 this season. However, there is not too much to like about him moving forward. He had a K/BB ratio under 2, and rumor has it that Padilla has severe motivational issues. Furthermore, Padilla had a quality start percentage of just 41.4%. That number had him pegged for 9 expected wins, meaning the one statistic that Padilla was above average in fantasy wise (his 14 wins) will be extremely difficult to repeat unless Padilla pitches much better.

Jensen Lewis – Early in the season, Lewis struggled to repeat the success that he experienced out of the ’pen the year before. However, he has been very good since taking over as Cleveland’s closer. Lewis recorded his 1st save on August 8th, and from that night on, he has gone 13-13 in save opportunities. There is a glaring reason why Lewis was able to turn things around. Over that span, Lewis had a K rate of 1.03 along with a K/BB ratio just over 4. Prior to that, Lewis had a K rate of just .68 while posting a K/BB ratio of only 1.43. Since Lewis has done such a nice job this season, it would not be surprising to see him named closer in ’09. Whether or not he is as successful depends on which Jensen Lewis we see show up.

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