First Pitch - NL Pitcher Keepers - September 24th, 2008

Alright gang, with Joe taking through the AL Keeper Pitchers to keep an eye on for next season, it’s my chance to turn our attention to the NL Keeper Pitchers to keep an eye on for 2009. As Joe mentioned we’ll be focusing on younger players that can make “the leap” next year while also highlighting some of those who have already made that same leap this year and are likely to continue to post successful results. As we all know predicting pitching is quite a difficult task and doing it over 6 months in advance of spring training leaves us even more vulnerable to look foolish come the middle of 2009. Add in the fact we’re trying to pick out “younger” pitchers, those from an age group that inherently come with more risk and well… we’re really pressing our luck. But I’m a man who suggested selling high on Tim Lincecum earlier in the year, so looking foolish is something I’m accustom to! Hell of an opening, I know! So without further ado, let’s get to business!

Jair Jurrjens – Jurrjens relatively slow finish to the season is going to drop his stock a bit heading into 2009 but Jurrjens has a great mix of GB Tendencies (52%) and Above Average K Rates (.77) that if he can just tighten up the BB’s a bit (.37), he can make another jump forward into the mold of an Adam Wainwright type starter. His profile wouldn’t seem to carry quite as much risk since his good peripherals including a terrific GB Rate should limit some of the downside, but Jurrjens has faded here in 2008 and he’s now thrown 46 more innings than he threw last season, which surpasses the dreaded Verducci Rule of 30 inning increases. Call me optimistic but I tend to trust the Braves organization with young arms and I think Jurrjens ends up being fine next year and taking another step forward.

Josh Johnson – Johnson often gets overlooked when discussing dominant young starters, mostly because of the injury history, but he’s now posted a career ERA of 3.55 in 266 1/3 innings. Since he’s come back from injury this season, he’s been even better showing an improved GB Rate (up to 46%) and an improving K Rate (up to .90) and a disintegrating BB Rate (down to .30). Those are the peripherals of a legitimate #2 fantasy starter but they’re being masked by a high WHIP (1.34) that is purely the result of some terribly bad luck (.345 BABIP). If healthy, Johnson’s going to emerge next season as a reliable #2 fantasy starter and he’ll likely be drafted about 3-4 rounds too late as owners scamper for more “familiar” names. If you can acquire the unheralded Johnson on the cheap now, you’ll be far ahead of the game. Those that picked him up off waivers and keep him for a late round selection or low $ price tag, should absolutely include him on your keepers list.

Ricky Nolasco – Nolasco’s true breakout season will always be 2008, but this blurb is more to talk about how I believe in Nolasco’s improvements this year and how I think he’s STILL underrated. Since the beginning of June, Nolasco has posted the following numbers: 10-4, 3.17 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and a magnificent 138:19 K:BB Ratio in 145 innings. That’s a legit STUD and those are numbers over 145 innings, a pretty good sample size for a pitcher who has truly jumped a few levels this year. Nolasco is already 45 innings or so above his professional high so there is some concern about rebounding next year, but given the lack of hype surrounding Nolasco currently I think there will be enough of a margin of safety between Nolasco’s draft day value and his true value to pursue Ricky come draft time, or keep him on the cheap heading into next season.

Yovani Gallardo – Yovani, Myvani, Ourvani; he’s everyone’s “Vani” and next year you better not forget about him. Gallardo was activated yesterday by the Brewers and will report immediately to the pen. This activation is less than 6 months removed from Gallardo’s torn ACL and shows just how committed Gallardo has been in his rehab. The injury wasn’t an arm injury and Gallardo has shown in his limited big league time that he’s got the makings of an Ace. Remember the difference between Gallardo and Lincecum heading into this season was considered minimal, but one will go 10 rounds or more after the other come draft time next season. I love Gallardo and if this year’s injury has given the savvy owner the opportunity to secure Gallardo’s career for a small price, the savvy owner should pounce.

Manny Parra – We’ve said it time and time again this season but Manny Parra already has two of the three pitching trifecta peripherals taken care of (GB Rate and K Rate), if he can just straighten out the command rates, he’s going to take a monster step forward. Parra’s career minor league .27 BB Rate bodes well for potential improvements and after two years with BB Rates in the .45+ range at the major league level, I think Parra regains the command of his minor league days and becomes a reliable middle of the rotation starter with upside for more in fantasy lineups.

Johnny Cueto – As if this article wasn’t assuming enough risk, I’m going to recommend a young pitcher under the control of Dusty Baker? Yeah, I am and you could throw Edinson Volquez in there as I do believe in Volquez as well going into next season. But what might surprise you is I actually think Cueto has the better season next year. I’ve battled this all year long and lost, but the difficulties Cueto has had at the big league level (poor command and enormous HR Allowed Rates) have not been major issues at the minor league level for Cueto in the past. Conversely, the things that have made Volquez successful this season, mainly a ridiculously improved GB Rate, has not been consistent with his past. This is not an indictment on Volquez whom I do like for next season (though I see some slight regression) but more of a statement of just how much I like Johnny Cueto. Prior to Cueto’s recent arm concerns his K Rate had jumped back over 1.00 in July and August and his BB Rates had gotten back down to a more palatable level. If he can get the BB’s down to his minor league track record (.24) he can make a huge jump next season.

Clayton Kershaw – Arguably the most exciting young pitcher for long-term keeper leagues. At the age of 20, he’s posted a K Rate of nearly 1.00 (.92), a GB Rate of near 48%, and posted a solid 4.28 ERA in just over 100 big league innings. He pitches in a terrific home park against a division of weak-hitting offenses, making him a premier keeper option heading into ’09. Kershaw’s one fatal flaw, his command (.49 BB Rate), is the lone piece keeping him from making the leap. While odds are against it clicking at the age of 21, I’m willing to bet on Kershaw for ’09. If he figures out the command he’ll make a HUGE leap like fellow young LH Jon Lester did this season.

Max Scherzer – C’mon, you didn’t think I’d forget about my man Mad-Max? Scherzer will get a rotation spot next year and his fantastic K Rates mixed with solid command are going to make him a hot commodity for fantasy owners. The obvious comparison because of their unique deliveries and similar peripherals are to Tim Lincecum and I think the comparison is an apt one. At age 24, Scherzer will be a bit more advanced than some of his other “young” counterparts (like Kershaw) but he may have the biggest impact of them all because he’s the one guy who has the potential to be a true #1 in the mold of Lincecum, Santana, etc NEXT YEAR. Some of the other young pitchers on the list may have a higher ceiling later on (Kershaw) or more probability in their projections for next season (Josh Johnson), but no one has the ceiling for 2009 that Scherzer has.

That will conclude the highlighted list of potential keeper options heading into 2009 that I think deserve special attention and consideration for your keeper rosters. Some other young pitchers like Mike Pelfrey (Derek Lowe-lite), Chris Volstad (Mike Pelfrey 2.0), and intriguing young prospects like Tommy Hanson and Jarrod Parker all deserve some attention as well. Heck, even future #1 pick Steve Strasburg, could draw some David Price comparisons wherever he lands next season. But all of those players elicit a bit less faith heading into next season.

That wraps up my final First Pitch of the season and with the year coming to an end I’d like to extend a thank you to all of the subscribers out there. You all provide plenty of support and generate plenty of thought amongst our analysts. Without you all we wouldn’t be able to provide the type of research and analysis that we do and we certainly appreciate your feedback and your support. I hope this season has been an informative one and even more importantly a profitable one for each and every one of you!