Deserved Wins:
One of our simplest Sabermetric formulas is Expected or Deserved Wins. We define Deserved Wins as Quality Starts
multiplied by a factor of .74. Typically a pitcher wins
74% of his Quality Starts (a Quality Start as defined by Bill James requires
that a starting pitcher has gone at
least 6 innings and has given up 3 runs or fewer). Using Deserved Wins, we
can determine if the pitcher was unfortunate or fortunate in his pitching
Win totals. Another consideration to consider is pitchers who may be stuck on a poor
offensive team; their deserved wins totals will be less than their actual Win
totals. Conversely a pitcher on a good offensive team may have actual win
totals which may exceed his deserved totals. Depending on the quality of the
offensive unit, this could account for a 4-5 win swing or 2-3 wins above or
below expectations.
From a
forecasting standpoint, we can forecast a pitcher’s win totals the following
season based on the improvement or degradation of his team support. Keep in
mind that players who were unusually lucky or unlucky in their Win totals
are mistakenly over or undervalued during the following fantasy draft
season. Such considerations are part of our player projections model.
Many fantasy league
GMs will be sure to overvalue Matsuzaka this season. Although he does
play for one of the better offensive ball clubs in the majors, his win total
will take a significant hit this season. On the flip side Matt Cain
played for one of the worst offensive ballclubs, yet you don't see Tim
Lincecum's name on this list. Good Luck / Bad Luck: Watch as many of
their fortunes will turn in 2009.
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