1. Chase Utley - Its looking more and more like Opening Day is a reality for Chase Utley. After off-season hip surgery, he played in his first game of the preseason on Sunday and seems to be progressing without any major problems. Even if he's not ready for opening day, his fantasy value should be not be effected too much. He is still the elite fantasy 2B on draft day and, in my opinion, in a tier of his own.
2. Chipper Jones - Injury news with Chipper Jones is always a scary proposition, especially when it stops him from playing in any remaining WBC games this spring. A pain in his right side has been a lingering issue for him, making him 0-for-10 in WBC action with 6 K's. Jones is the same risky pick as he has been every year since 2003. Over the last 5 seasons, Jones has averaged only 437 AB per season and has missed an average of 38 games per year. Those playing-time number makes managing your fantasy lineup a constant challenge and absolutely impossible to have any continuity or consistency. No doubt he still puts up impressive Hall-of-Fame caliber stats, but head-to-head owners should proceed withb caution on that constantly-injured 37 year old Jones.
3. Jed Lowrie - With Julio Lugo expected to miss at least a month with knee surgery, Jed Lowrie slips into the everyday SS role for the Red Sox. With everyday playing time, he will now see mixed-league consideration with lots of upside in his 2nd season. He's having a great spring, going 10-for-28 with 5 extra base hits and his playing time may be in jeopardy if Lugo can return healthy after the first 6 weeks of the season. Lowrie can hit for average and is expected to one day have 20-HR power (although 2009 will likely not be that year). No speed from the youngster either, so consider him a good late-round fill-in who should score plenty of runs and maybe give you the occasional green-monster surprise homerun in the first month of the season.
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka - We tend to discount all spring training stats, so the same should be true for the WBC, right? Well, he's 2-0 in the WBC this year with a 1.80 ERA, 9 K's in 10.0 IP, and a WHIP of 1.10. His two walks is a good sign this spring, as his walk rate typically is his weak point. While his WHIP has remained consistent at 1.32 in both 2007 and 2008, his BB rate contribution is significantly different. In '07, he posted a 3.52 BB/9, a 5.05 in '08, and our projection software has him forecasted at a 4.63 for 2009. While he posted a 2.90 ERA, his QS% was only 48% and his deserved wins was only 10. While the K's and the wins makes him a solid #2 fantasy pitcher, the walks will continue to suppress his value on draft day from ever cracking the next tier.
5. Ivan Rodriguez - Pudge continues to draw interest from various clubs around the league. With injuries to Joe Mauer, the Twins may seem like the most logical choice, but the Marlins continue to express serious interest as well. He may even play a little 3B if there's a need. For fantasy purposes, he'll be splitting AB wherever he goes and probably will just be more than a hassle than what its worth from a playing-time perspective. He'll have a little fantasy value in AL/NL-only leagues (depending on where he ends up), but there's no reason to flag him for any reason at this point.
6. Mike Napoli - It looks like its going to be another crazy year for Napoli. He finally hit his first HR of the spring and his batting below the Mendoza line as he returns from off-season shoulder surgery. Coming off a 20-HR season (227 AB for a HR/AB of 11.4, Slg of of .586), he'll likely continue to split some time with Jeff Mathis, but I think we'll see some more time from him with the Angels in desperate need of increased offensive production. You can wait on Napoli to make him a #8/#9 catcher pick in typical 12-team leagues, but his playing time consistency could be frustrating out of the catcher slot.
7. Mike Fontenot - We've had some position-battle analysis at Fantistics over the past week and Mike Fontenot is right in the mix for the starting 2B position (competing with Aaron Miles). With Fontenot tearing the cover off the ball in spring training (hitting .385 through Sunday), Manager Lou Piniella has indicated that Fontenot will start against right-handed pitchers this year. That slightly improves his fantasy outlook, but still implies he will be splitting time and will not be an everyday fixture. This battle still has some room to play-out so don't commit either way at this point, but even if Fontenot does win the everyday job, he should be considered a low-level option.
8. Mark Teahen - While his fantasy value as an outfielder isn't that attractive on draft day, seeing "2B" next to his name definitely adds another dynamic. He's attempting to make the transition to second base for the Royals and could be their everyday option in 2009. If that's true, we could see a surprise 20-HR candidate out of the 2B position. Of course, you'll have to draft him as an OF until he becomes 2B-eligible, but that should happen within the first couple week of the season (depending on your league's position eligibility requirements). His FPI in 2008 was a modest 0.50 and his power was fairly inconsistent with only a total of 15HR, a .713 OPS, and a HR/AB of 38.1. But the 27-year-old has the power potential that could bust-through the 20 mark. I think he's a good guy to take a late-round gamble, especially now that he has multiple position eligibility potential.
9. Barry Zito - Here's the obligatory Barry Zito update of the spring. Oh, I know what you're thinking. Maybe I can sneak in a Barry Zito pick and this is the year he turns it around. Well, I guess anything is possible, but if spring is ANY indication of future performance, its going to be another long year. He yielded 6 runs and 10 hits to the Royals over the weekend with 3 BB and no K's. Digging a little deeper, six hits off of the Southpaw came from left-handed batters after he held lefties to a .213 average last year. In total, he has 11 ER in 13.2 IP this spring and looks like the 5.15 ERA, 1.60 WHIP Zito of 2008. He has location issues, velocity issues, and at this point, he must have confidence issues as well. Steer clear and don't consider wasting a pick on Zito.
10. Robinson Cano - A lackluster season in 2008, a notorious slow starter, and a minor shoulder injury could make Cano a good value pick on draft day. While hitting only .271 in 2008, he had back-to-back seasons of .300+ averages in 2006 and 2007 and has all the talent in the world to consistently be a .300+ hitter and knock 20HR. In fact, many think he has that 20HR potential this season, depending on his ultimate spot in the Yankees lineup. That slotting remains to be seen, but placing him in the bottom half of 2B heading into draft-day makes him a solid upside candidate with a proven track record. As an injury update, he'll have an MRI today, but its doubtful anything significant will come of it.
Seattle Mariners - Closer Situation
The Mariners remained active in their attempt to piece together a respectable team in the Northwest. They definitely have a ways to go. Their most recent acquisition is closer journeyman Chad Cordero, signing him to a minor-league deal and giving him a shot at the 9th inning job. Cordero is recovering from shoulder surgery that ended his year prematurely in 2008 and probably will not be ready for opening day. But, anyone who is in line to get regular saves instantly has some fantasy value (whether minor or not) and deserves to be kept on fantasy closer radars on draft day. While last season was cut short, he did convert 37 successful saves for the Nationals in 2007 and it wasn't that long ago (2005) that he posted 47 saves in a season. He's only 27 years old and there's no reason to believe he can't bounce back from this injury. With lots of closer experience under his belt and no real alternative in Seattle (now that Brandon Marrow has moved to the starting rotation), Cordero becomes the favorite if he's healthy.
New York Yankees - General Grapefruit Updates
MRI's are scheduled for Robinson Cano and Damaso Marte, but the tests seem to be more precautionary than anything else. Jorge Posada was back behind the plate on Sunday for the first time since July. He's been recovering from off-season shoulder surgery and is progressing nicely, although they did shut him down a few weeks ago when he tweaked the shoulder during some stretching exercises. It remains to be seen if he'll be ready for opening day on April 6th at Baltimore. Posada's value has greatly diminished after flirting with the MVP a few years ago, but he still squeaks in as a fantasy-viable catcher in typical 12-team mixed leagues. 15 HR and .290+ average is not out of the question. Moving to the mound, you might want to add a tick or two to Andy Pettitte's fantasy value. After a dismal end to his 2008 campaign that yielded a .302 BAA, 1.54 WHIP, and 5.35 ERA, the 36-year-old is looking solid this spring with decent velocity and pinpoint control. Age certainly looked to be catching up with him last season, but he could be a viable fantasy option playing for the Yankees (and getting run support). He may be more of a first half performer who could be a risky long-haul option.
Milwaukee Brewers - Braun / Cameron Injuries Not Serious
Mike Cameron was scratched this weekend with soreness in his ribcage, but it doesn't seem to be a serious issue. A notoriously underrated fantsay performer, you can lock-in Cameron for 20+ HR and 15+ SB with an obvious 20/20 potential if he can stay healthy. Fantasy stud Ryan Braun had to leave the WBC game Sunday night with soreness in his right side. The Brewers LF said it wasn't serious and the move was precautionary. He'll get a day or two rest, as WBC manager Davey Johnson will not want to flirt with the health of the Brewers star. Keep Braun in your first rounds of fantasy drafts, as this injury is not serious. Bill Hall returned to action on Saturday after sitting out for the past three weeks with a left-leg injury. He even stole a base, which should be a sure-sign that he must feel good enough to test the leg. Manager Ken Macha indicated that Hall isn't near everyday shape, so they'll be easy on him from the get-go, but it shouldn't effect is regular season playing time too much. As I mentioned last week though, Hall only has 3B eligibility in most leagues (with 6 games played at 2B in 2008, he might have that eligibility depending on your league's parameters).
