Reds deal Jeff Keppinger, Alex Gonzalez’s role even more solidified:
Alex Gonzalez’s starting role was never in jeopardy in Cincinnati, but the trade of Jeff Keppinger yesterday but with inexperienced Paul Janish and Adam Rosales behind him, Dusty Baker and his favoritism towards veterans will be less likely to turn away from Alex Gonzalez. Gonzalez was on his way to a comeback season in 2007 before suffering a left knee fracture that has kept him out of major league action since. He’s always had a bit of pop in his bat but struggles to make contact and his fly ball tendencies have been hurt by playing in the big ballpark in Miami. With Cincinnati he showed some resurgence in that bat, hitting 16 HR’s in 393 AB’s and posting an extra base hit rate over 11%. There’s a lot of risk in Gonzalez’s return with the health concerns and its unlikely he’ll replicate that level of power, which is not in line with his career norms, but Gonzalez isn’t being drafted at all and in NL Only leagues he’s a SS with the potential to hit 15-20 HR’s, making for a decent NL Only sleeper.
Owings leaves door open for Bailey in battle for 5th rotation slot:
Both Micah Owings and Homer Bailey have had terrific springs but with the opportunity to shut the door on the competition, Micah Owings left it open a crack with a difficult outing on Tuesday. Owings allowed 9 base-runners in 5 innings, including 3 walks. He did strike out 5 and allowed just 1 earned run (3 additional unearned runs), but he labored with command and left the door open slightly. At this point it would be an upset for Owings to lose hold of the 5th starter job as the Reds have already talked about utilizing Homer Bailey out of the pen, but the competition continues on for one more day when Homer Bailey will make his final start of the spring on Wednesday.
Devine to see Dr. Andrews, A’s bullpen already shook up:
Earlier in the spring I talked about Joey Devine as the leading candidate in the A’s bullpen but noted that the A’s have a way of producing a variety of save candidates seemingly every season. With the news that Devine is heading to see Dr. Andrews to examine some elbow soreness, Brad Ziegler recaptures the closer reigns with one of my personal favorites, Santiago Casilla lurking in the wings. For those in deep leagues, Casilla is someone I was mentioning earlier in the season and someone to pay attention to again. Ziegler gets the big immediate uptick in value, but Casilla appears to be next in line and in Oakland that’s usually a spot that grabs a handful of saves over the course of the season. Casilla threw 2 more shutout innings on Tuesday and lowered his spring ERA to 0.96.
Micah Hoffpauir’s big spring continues:
Hoffpauir launched his 6th HR of the spring and knocked in his 26th RBI in 34 spring training games, for the major league lead. Hoffpauir is a man without a position both currently and seemingly perpetually for the Cubs. He’s a DH type whom the Cubs are trying to make room for on the roster by getting him time in the corner OF slots and at 1B as a backup to Derrek Lee. He certainly won’t get playing time immediately but with Milton Bradley’s injury concerns and Lou Pineilla’s liberal use of his bench Hoffpauir could see his way to 250-300+ AB’s this season, making him roster-worthy for those in NL only leagues. While playing time won’t come easy, hitting sure seems to for the 29 year old minor league journeyman. Hoffpauir has compiled an OPS above .900 in each of the last two seasons and in his 73 big league AB’s last year he posted a .934 OPS. He can certainly hit when given the opportunity and in 250-300 AB’s would likely be good for 10-15 HR’s. As a late round pick with upside based on Bradley’s health you could do much worse for those NL Only players out there.
Kevin Gregg responds to new role:
Most fantasy owners are upset with Lou Pineilla’s closer decision as the more talented Carlos Marmol will be setting up for Kevin Gregg this season. But Gregg responded strongly in his first outing since being officially named the closer, striking out the side in Tuesday’s outing. Gregg’s had success in the closer’s role and Marmol has more value in the multi-inning role the Cubs have used him in the past. As a Cubs fan, I’m happy with the decision but as a fantasy owner I understand the frustration. Marmol will still have plenty of value as an 80+ K reliever with terrific ratios and he’ll be first in line if Gregg falters, so don’t panic early and drop Marmol.
Gary Sheffield, OF, FA
Sheffield was given his official release on Tuesday by the Tigers as the Tigers organization decided to move on from Sheff and swallow his $14 million price tag for the 2009 season. Sheff is just 1 HR shy of the magical 500 mark and early indications are the Phillies are showing some interest in Sheff as a platoon/bench OF. Regardless of where he lands it’s likely as a bench/platoon option initially, but in the right spot Sheff could provide some intriguing value. He’s knocked out 44 HR’s in the last two seasons and swiped 31 bags. His EYE has been in rapid decline and the extra base hit numbers have been declining as well, indicating that Sheffield is indeed showing his age, but the 40 year old OF still could have some value in deeper formats. Where he lands will certainly have an impact but the power-speed combination along with some horrible luck the last few years (.262 BABIP in ’07, .239 BABIP in ’08) suggest Sheff could still be a reasonably productive fantasy player for deep league owners.
Jeff Keppinger, SS/3B, HOU
Keppinger gets a nice boost in value with the move to Houston. It’s unclear whether Keppinger will come in and immediately unseat Geoff Blum at the hot corner, but with Miguel Tejada and Kaz Matsui rounding out the rest of the infield, Keppinger should be able to log 300+ ABs even in a Utility role. Keppinger doesn’t offer much in the way of power or speed, but his multi-position potential and strong batting average contributions make him a nice back-end option in NL Only formats. Keppinger a career .287 hitter has a career 1.33 EYE and has shown strong batting average potential hitting .322 through his minor league career.
Scott Downs, RP, TOR
Our press clippings touched on BJ Ryan’s dip in velocity and consequently his difficult spring results so far, but on Tuesday we got further indication from the Jays of there concerns over Ryan’s struggles. Manager Cito Gaston suggested Scott Downs could see some save opportunities to start the season as BJ Ryan continues to try to find his velocity. The Blue Jays bullpen has a variety of intriguing options, but Downs was specifically cited by Gaston for the 2nd time in as many weeks and deserves attention in all formats. For those scouring for closers, he’s more valuable than potential short-term closer option Carlos Villanueva in Milwaukee because he strikes out batters and has had significant success as a reliever and is slightly less appealing than Brad Ziegler, who appears to have more longer-term potential.
Cole Hamels, SP, PHI
Hamels was officially ruled out for the Phillies opener on April 5th and is now hoping to make his first scheduled start of the season on April 10th. For those in weekly league formats he’s a questionable play in Week 1, but the good news on the whole is Hamels has been back throwing and the elbow scares earlier in the spring appear behind him.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY
ARod owners got some encouraging news on Tuesday as Alex Rodriguez suggested he was ahead of schedule and is hoping to return before the May 15th target date. He’s supposedly “ramping up” rehab activities but still won’t return to the Yankees training facility until after the Yankees depart. Rodriguez draft stock has taken a hit but it seems he’s settled into the mid 2nd round. For those in playoff based formats this seems appropriate but for those in Roto-based formats, his value likely falls closer to the 3rd round with the missed month-plus of production. Either way it seems owners have stopped worrying about injury recurrence with ARod and are instead focusing on best case scenarios. It’s a dangerous spot for fantasy owners and one that I’m often left avoiding for someone else to deal with.
Joba Chamberlain, SP, NYY
Updating yesterday’s news item on Joba Chamberlain’s decreased velocity, Joba did his best to erase those concerns yesterday as he tossed 5 clean innings before running into trouble in the 6th. Chamberlain was clocked as high as 96 and sat in the 93-94 mph range in the 6th inning before he was removed. This is a significant improvement over the reports of 88-92 mph and shows Chamberlain is building the kind of arm strength we’ve grown to expect from the youngster. He won’t be touching 100 any time soon as a starting pitcher, but working consistently in the mid 90’s as opposed to the low 90’s is the type of velocity we’ve come to expect from Chamberlain as a starter.
Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS
After his first real difficult outing of the spring (6 ER’s in 5 1/3 innings), Clay Buchholz was notified that he’d start the season in AAA if Brad Penny was able to get through his Thursday outing in fine shape. This is disappointing news to owners who took a late flier on Buchholz. For those in deep leagues or AL Only type formats there are enough injury concerns in the Boston rotation and Buchholz has proven himself the next in line (until John Smoltz returns in May-June) that Buchholz is worth stashing, but those in mixed leagues can safely move on after the results of Brad Penny’s outing on Thursday.
Rick Porcello, SP, DET
Porcello moved a step closer to potentially securing a rotation spot with his best outing of the spring on Tuesday. Porcello didn’t allow an ER in 5 innings against the Nationals yielding just 2 hits and 1 BB while striking out 2. More importantly and impressively for Porcello were the 10 ground ball outs he induced during the outing. Porcello, an extreme ground ball pitcher, hasn’t yet flashed the K potential that is expected of him as a pro, but his great ground ball tendencies and terrific raw stuff might be enough to land him the 5th starter’s spot. As a fantasy commodity he’ll have his struggles overcoming the lack of K’s and experience (having not pitched above high A yet), but he’s a very talented youngster who deserves attention in deep formats.
Jorge De La Rosa, SP, COL
De La Rosa’s strong finish last season (3.08 ERA, 68 K’s in 73 IP) made him a popular sleeper pick coming into the season. Things hadn’t gone as well in the spring though as De La Rosa carried a 9.42 ERA into Tuesday’s start as he battled his usual struggles with command (6 BB’s in 14 1/3 IP). This has been consistent in De La Rosa’s career where he’d fall into hitters count and then find too much of the plate. But on Tuesday the De La Rosa of the 2nd half re-emerged. He was fantastic against the White Sox, striking out 9 in just 5 1/3 innings and allowing 0 ER’s. More importantly he walked just 1 during the outing and showed improved command. He’s always had intriguing stuff, but he’s been plagued by inconsistency throughout his career. While the potential reward with De La Rosa is extremely high, the inconsistency and command issues make him someone worth stashing but not relying on in all formats.
Emmanuel Burris, 2B, SF
Burris officially won the starting 2b job on Tuesday as the Giants optioned his main competition Kevin Frandsen down to the minors. Burris is an intriguing speedster who flashed great plate discipline in his utility role last season. The plate patience and contact rates exhibited last year at the major leagues are stronger than his minor league track record so there is some concern for his ability to maintain those rates, and he has absolutely no power to speak of (minor league career slugging of .337), but his wheels should allow him to get on base enough to swipe 20-25 bags and his batting average should be able to stay above .275 or so thanks in large part to his high GB Rates and great legs.
