Runners Stranded Percentage - 2009 Edition

The pitchers we're going to identify as prime candidates to post production decreases in 2009 have been selected based on a Runners Stranded % which is greater than 5 percent in comparison to their 3 year history (if present), while also not posting a commensurate Strike-Out ratio. Additionally any 1st year players who posted a Runners Stranded % greater that .78, without a K/Inning ratio above .90 are at risk not to repeat their production.

The starting pitchers who have met my criteria and are projected to see a downturn in their production per game are: Johan Santana, Dice K, Cliff Lee,  Adam Wainwright, Joe Saunders, Greg Perkins, Scott Baker, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Dolais Perez, Edwin Jackson, and Kyle Lohse . I am projecting (in our 2009 software), that each of these pitchers will post an ERA which is significantly greater than what they posted in 2008. Additionally some will likely see a rise in their WHIP and fall in their Win totals in 2009.

As an  historical reference, last year in this exercise we identified 9 pitchers who were above their mean in Runners Stranded % from the previous year and projected a drop in production for: Dan Haren, John Lackey, Oliver Perez, Brad Penny, Fausto Carmona, Noah Lowery (Inj), Doug Davis, Orlando Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Kendrick, and Tom Gorzelanny.   Looking back, we were 9 out of 10 in identifying the pitchers who would not live up to their previous season output. In 2007 we were 7 out of 9, and in 2006 a perfect 10 for 10. Obviously there is validity in using this indicator.

On the flip side pitchers who made the wrong pitches at the wrong time last year include: Javier Vazquez, Josh Beckett, Jered Weaver, Bronson Arroyo, and Ian Snell. All of these pitchers have a above average K ratio and saw their Runners Stranded percentage dip at or below .70 last season. An increase in production and subsequently fantasy value is expected for these pitchers.

Runners Stranded Percentage can be found in our Player Production Charts and is built into the 2009 pitcher forecasts. Fantistics Subscribers can also view the outliers during the season within our premium subscriber Player Charts database.

Have a great weekend,

Anthony A. Perri

Publisher & Statistician

Fantistics Fantasy Sports