Let me start by saying
that fellow colleague Ron Shandler is a respected pioneer in
the industry and his strategies are always thoughtful and intuitive. The
LIMA requisites (K/BB, K/9, HR/9) capture some of the valued
universal indicators that we also use to project a pitcher's
success. However I am not sold on drafting
pitchers with the fewest possible innings, as I don't like
to discount/punt any category especially when you consider
that a pitcher's Strikeouts are one of the most
predictable pitching categories. Wins are also above
average in predictability.
Regardless, this article is not about
whether the LIMA strategy is viable or not, but rather how we can capitalize on the prevailing sentiment in this
years fantasy draft room.
Like many other strategies, the fantasy
marketplace (the actual Draft) dictates whether a strategy
will be effective or provide an edge. If everyone has or is
applying the same strategy, any edge that a strategy
provides will diminish as the numeric advantage is dispersed among
those applying it. This would hold true for our
VAM strategy
as well. If the rest of your league owners were ranking or
valuing players based on both position scarcity with
the probability of predictability among the positions, then the
VAM strategy would lose it’s inherit advantage (which
incidentally can be proven using our
Mock Draft Simulator). Hence I totally respect and
understand those who write me and say, “I love
your service, but can’t recommend it to anyone in my
league”.
Let's get to the point, this year
TOP TIER PITCHERS are being discounted beyond reason. It’s
getting to the point where you can draft a top 5 pitcher for under or
about $20 in a mixed 5x5 260 budget league. RIDICULOUS!
Yes pitchers are more injury prone and offer less
predictability, however they are being undervalued with
“irrational exuberance” this season.
Let's examine why and apply some simple Math to this quagmire:
1. Hitters are 46% more likely to
come within 25% of their previous season totals. It's no
surprise that pitchers are the most difficult position in
fantasy to predict on a yearly basis. The chart below is
based on averages over a three year period which shows that
Starting Pitchers are 41% likely to come within 25% of their
previous year's performance as measured by our Fantasy
Points Indicator (FPI).
41 out of 100 come within 25% of last year's performance.
Not very good when you consider that 60% (60 out of 100) of hitters (outside of catchers) come within
25% of their previous season production. Advantage hitters:
In this case 60% to 41% or 1.46. Hitters are 46% more likely
to come within 25% of their pervious season totals. This is
a strong augment on why pitchers should be evaluated at a
lower valuation than hitters, which bolsters the LIMA
ideology.
2. Now consider this: A starting
pitcher's contribution is worth 58% more than that of a
hitter. Follow me here with the simple math: 14 hitters
/ 9 pitchers is the typical split in most league formats. 14
hitters for 5 rotisserie hitting categories, 9 pitchers for
5 Rotisserie hitting categories. Of those 9 pitchers, 6 are
typically starting pitchers with 3 dedicated to the relief
role. Closers typically log 1/3 the innings of a starter, so
it would take 3 closers to contribute the same way as a
starter in terms of Wins/WHIP/ERA/K. So in total there
are essentially 7 full role positions on the pitching side
that contribute to 5 scoring categories. If we exclude
Saves, we have 7 pitchers that contribute to 4 categories
(4/7= .57), and 14 hitters that contribute to 5 categories
(5/14 = .36). .57/.36=1.58. Thus simple math show us
that each pitcher's
contribution is worth 58% more than that of a hitter.
This is an argument on why pitchers should be valued at a
higher premium than hitters.
3. Comparing
point 1 vs. point 2: Well we can't really compare them
on a level playing field, as the two percentages are not
exactly tied together. All we are trying to do here is
intuitively determine what a pitcher's relative value should be
verses that of a hitter. To recap, Hitters are 46% more
likely to come within 25% of their previous season totals
(which means that they will be easier to predict and offer
less risk). The Starting Pitcher's slot is 58% more
valuable than that of the hitter (based on the limits of
a league starting roster).
I am proposing that these are somewhat equal trade-offs. If this is
a correct assumption, then one could make the argument that top tier pitchers should be valued at least
as equally as top tier hitters, if anything the numbers
lean towards pitchers being more valuable.
This week while on ESPN
LIVE Auction Leagues I
picked up Brandon Webb for $20, Dan Haren for
$18, James Shields for $15, and Felix Hernandez
for $16 (in one auction draft!)...Folks these are foreclosure prices and now is the
time to invest.
It wasn't too long ago (ok
maybe 10 years ago), when people were drafting Pedro
Martinez at $50 and winning their league (does anyone
remember Sports Weekly fantasy guru John Hunt
successfully employing this strategy?) The game format
hasn't changed, So how is it that pitchers are being
discounted so greatly this season?!? Obviously
it's the forces of
an open market determined by consumer sentiment. At the same
time, we know
that consumer sentiment in the market place and fundamental
value are sometimes two completely different topics.
My favorite financial lesson in graduate school was learning
about the
Dutch Tulip trade of the early 18th century. A
relatively worthless commodity trading at insane prices (and
unfortunately we have just experienced example of this in
our economy). In
our fantasy universe, hitters are being overvalued at the
expense of pitchers this season without fundamental
justification....and it's my obligation as a fantasy
advisor to bring this to your attention.
As our members know, we don't follow
the herd here at Fantistics. Using our
software and ranking system you'll see where the values
are this season among the pitching corps, and you will be
able to capitalize. In a few days I will post some
additional notes in the
member draft area (join)
on a recent strategy that I have been successfully
employing.
T-15 Folks!
Have a great weekend,
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