Scott Downs:
Even as BJ Ryan strengthens his hold on the closer’s role, Scott Downs seems to be improving his value each day. I’ve been a big proponent of the effective use of middle relievers in Roto formats in the past and Downs is proving himself an elite relieving option early on. After another scoreless outing on Sunday, Downs now has allowed just 2 base-runners in 7 2/3 innings while striking out a whopping 12 batters. Downs K Rate doesn’t seem sustainable given his history, but he’s been extremely effective the last two years posting ERA’s below 2.25 and WHIP’s below 1.22 in both seasons. The improving K Rate, tremendous GB/FB Rates, and the success over the last two years make Scott Downs one of the most coveted middle relievers in fantasy.
Ricky Romero:
Romero posted his 3rd consecutive quality start in as many tries on Sunday, shutting out the A’s for 7 innings. Romero allowed just 4 hits, walked 2, and struck out 6 while improving to 2-0. Romero’s looked like a completely different pitcher in his first 21 major league innings this year compared to his minor league track record. In the minors, Romero posted a mediocre .42 BB Rate along with an intriguing, but not spectacular, .78 K Rate. The K Rate improved significantly last year at AAA but he still struggled with command which makes the strong start a bit auspicious. With a career 1.47 WHIP and 4.33 ERA at the minor league level, I’m extremely skeptical. But the first 3 starts have been nothing short of magnificent. Romero’s 13:4 K:BB Ratio in those 21 innings comes with a 64% strike rate (a rate suggesting the command isn’t a fluke) and a GB Rate well over 50%. The indicators and background at the minor league level aren’t strong but the 3 starts at the major league level are. At this point Romero is worth speculating on in all formats, but I remain skeptical.
David Ortiz:
Ortiz’s 2nd half resurgence last season gave fantasy owners some confidence that there was more still left in the tank, but 12 games into the 2009 season things look vastly different. Ortiz has just 1 extra base hit in his first 47 AB’s and his K Rate has skyrocketed up to 29.8% (21% career). Big Papi has battled wrist and knee injuries over the last few years and most would readily admit his body-type isn’t the type to age well. At age 33, we may very well be seeing a steep decline for the once fantasy stalwart. I’m not a Papi owner in any of my leagues this year and I’m not going to be seeking him out in trade talks as a buy low. I’m a believer that the old 40 HR candidate is gone and Papi’s decline is here. How steep it is we’ll see, but I see far more risk in Ortiz this year than upside and suggest trying to deal for fair value if you can make a trade to an owner thinking they’re “buying low”.
Howie Kendrick:
With the proliferation of fantasy sites out there and most owners now using some source of “expert” information, everyone seemingly has good information to interpret. This explosion of information has made interpreting it more valuable and left more nuance for interpreting scouting or data outside just the numbers. For this reason I’ve been a believer (and to this point a sucker) for Howie Kendrick for the last two years. While I continue to believe at some point Kendrick’s career .360 minor league batting average is going to translate into some monster BA seasons at the major league level, Kendrick continues to show the upside is limited without better plate discipline. This is something our own Anthony Perri has stressed for years with seemingly underwhelming projections for Kendrick while other prognosticators continue to project the big breakout. While I still believe it will come at some point, Kendrick’s 23% K Rate combined with a 2% BB Rate through his first 47 AB’s this season suggest he still hasn’t put it together. Little plate discipline limits his Runs scored, BA contribution, and his power capabilities as the poor EYE leaves Kendrick unable to focus on pitches he can drive, sapping some of the gap power we saw in the minor leagues. Long-term I still believe, but Kendrick continues to carry more name value than actual value for fantasy owners.
Kyle Davies:
Hat tip to our own David Regan for citing Davies as a potential breakout candidate early on this spring. After an awful first inning in Texas yesterday, Davies settled down and continued to make his case for an impending breakout. Davies allowed 5 base-runners and 2 ER’s in the first inning, but yielded just 3 base-runners and 1 more ER over the last 5 innings. He finished with 3 hits allowed, a ghastly 5 BB’s, but just 3 ER’s in his 6 innings of work while striking out 8. The BB’s are a bit concerning, but much of the control issues came in the first inning and he settled down after that. In addition, Davies now has 21 K’s in 18 2/3 innings to go with a 2.89 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through his first 3 outings. Add in the nice September finish last season in which Davies posted a 2.27 ERA and upped his K Rate to .76 and it may be the signal that the light switch came on for the once-revered prospect. Davies bouts with command and Fly Ball tendencies will lead to the occasional disastrous outing, but I’m starting to believe more and more in the turnaround. In AL only formats and in deep mixed leagues (14 or deeper), Davies should be owned and started. In traditional mixed leagues, I think he’s a back-end starter/bench option that you play matchups with.
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